Maritime spatial planning (MSP) is envisaged as a tool to apply an ecosystem-based approach to the marine and coastal realms, aiming at ensuring that the collective pressure of human activities is kept within acceptable limits. Cumulative impacts (CI) assessment can support science-based MSP, in order to understand the existing and potential impacts of human uses on the marine environment. A CI assessment includes several sources of uncertainty that can hinder the correct interpretation of its results if not explicitly incorporated in the decision-making process. This study proposes a three-level methodology to perform a general uncertainty analysis integrated with the CI assessment for MSP, applied to the Adriatic and Ionian Region (AIR). We describe the nature and level of uncertainty with the help of expert judgement and elicitation to include all of the possible sources of uncertainty related to the CI model with assumptions and gaps related to the case-based MSP process in the AIR. Next, we use the results to tailor the global uncertainty analysis to spatially describe the uncertainty distribution and variations of the CI scores dependent on the CI model factors. The results show the variability of the uncertainty in the AIR, with only limited portions robustly identified as the most or the least impacted areas under multiple model factors hypothesis. The results are discussed for the level and type of reliable information and insights they provide to decision-making. The most significant uncertainty factors are identified to facilitate the adaptive MSP process and to establish research priorities to fill knowledge gaps for subsequent planning cycles. The method aims to depict the potential CI effects, as well as the extent and spatial variation of the data and scientific uncertainty; therefore, this method constitutes a suitable tool to inform the potential establishment of the precautionary principle in MSP.

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Climate change is one of the most complex issues of the 21st century, and even though there is general consensus about the urgency of taking action at the city level, the planning and implementation of adaptation measures is advancing slowly. The lack of data and information to support the planning process is often mentioned as a factor hampering the adaptation processes in cities. In this paper, we developed and tested a methodology for heat stress vulnerability and risk assessment at the neighborhood scale to support designers, planners, and decision makers in developing and implementing adaptation strategies and measures at the local level. The methodology combines high-resolution spatial information and crowdsourcing geospatial data to develop sensitivity, adaptive capacity, vulnerability, exposure, and risk indicators. The methodology is then tested on the urban fabric of the city of Padova, Italy. Our results show that different vulnerability and risk values correspond to different typologies of urban areas. Furthermore, the possibility of combining high-resolution information provided by the indicators and land use categories is of great importance to support the adaptation planning process. We also argue that the methodology is flexible enough to be applied in different contexts.

Land–sea interaction dynamics are physiologically regulated by an exchange of matter (and energy) between the anthropic system and the natural environment. Therefore, the appropriate management of land–sea interaction (LSI)contexts should base on those planning approaches which can holistically support coastal development, such as Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) and Climate Adaptation Planning (CAP). One of the main limiting factors for this integration is the fragmentation of existing databases and information sources, which compose the territorial knowledge framework. Investigations have sought to address the representation and assessment of “wicked” and interconnected coastal problems. The present research focuses on the production of the necessary information to fill sectorial knowledge gaps and to merge the available data into a single framework. The research methodology is based on remote sensing assessment techniques and is designed to be replicated in other coastal areas to integrate CAP and MSP. The output maps are a result of the empirical application of the integration of the assessment techniques and are meant to support local decision-making processes. The result aims at illustrating and highlighting the relationships between climate change impact vulnerabilities their spatial relation to marine resources and maritime activities. This can support effective actions aimed at environmental and urban protection, the organization of the uses of the sea and adaptation to climate impacts. The application of the assessment techniques is developed on a case study in the north Adriatic Basin. The Gulf of Trieste constitutes a representative case study for the Mediterranean Basin due to its transboundary nature. The relationship and the ongoing projects between Slovenia and Italy make the case study an interesting context in which to test and train the proposed integrated planning approach. Therefore, the study investigates local vulnerability to climate impacts, i.e., Urban Heat Island (UHI) and urban runoff, and the existing relationship between the urban fabrics and the marine environment.