Transit in the United States often suffers from the problem of inability to deliver travelers all the way from their point of origin to their destination. This "last-mile" problem is thought to deter transit use among riders with auto access, even when high-
ABSTRACT. Ecological restoration, particularly in urban contexts, is a complex collective decision-making process that involves a diversity of stakeholders and experts, each with their own perceptions and preferences about what landscapes should and can look like, how to get them to the desired state, and on what timeline. We investigate how structural and behavioral factors may influence collective decision making in the context of ecological restoration, with the purpose of establishing general relationships between management styles (defined by structural and behavioral factors of the organization) and decision outcomes. Informed by existing literature on collective decision making and by empirical data from the Chicago Wilderness region, we present a stylized agent-based model that maps out and simulates the processes by which individuals within restoration organizations communicate, discuss, and ultimately make a decision. Our study examines how structural and behavioral characteristicsincluding: (a) the number of actors and groups involved in decision making, (b) the frequency and type of interactions among actors, (c) the initial setup of positions and respect, (d) outside information, and (e) entrenchment and cost of dissent-lead to or prohibit group convergence in terms of collective position, variation in position across actors, and final decision strategies. We found that formal meetings and group leaders are important facilitators of convergence, especially when multiple groups are present, new information is introduced in the process, and participants are polarized around an issue. Also, intergroup interactions are particularly important for overall convergence. Position entrenchment slows the convergence process and increases the need for decision strategies involving outside intervention. Cost of dissent can reinforce these effects. Our study formalizes collective decision-making processes within the context of ecological restoration, establishes generalizable relationships between these processes and decision outcomes, and provides a foundation for further empirical and modeling research.
Ecological restoration actions generally result from collective decision-making processes and can involve diverse, at times contentious, views. As such, it is critical to understand these processes and the factors that might influence the resolution of diverse perspectives into a set of coordinated actions. This paper describes the adaptation and calibration of a stylized collective decision-making agent-based model using ethnographic data, to advance theory on how decisions emerge in the context of ecological restoration in the Chicago Wilderness. The prototypical model provided structure and organization of the empirical data of two Chicago Wilderness member groups and revealed organizational structures, patterns of interactions via formal and informal meetings, and parameter values for the various mechanisms. The organization of the data allowed us to identify where our original model mechanisms required adaptation. After model modifications were completed, baseline scenarios were contrasted with observations for final parameter calibration and to elaborate explanations of the study cases. This exercise allowed us to identify the components and mechanisms in the system to which the outputs are most sensitive. We constructed relevant hypothetical scenarios around these critical components, and found that key liaisons, agents with high interaction frequencies and high mutual respect values are useful in promoting efficient decision processes, but are limited in their ability to change the collective position with respect to a restoration practice. Simulations suggest that final collective position can be changed when there is a more equitable distribution of agents across groups, or the key liaison is very persuasive (i.e. interacts frequently and is highly respected) but is non-reciprocal (i.e. does not respect others highly). Our work advances our understanding of key mechanisms influencing collective decision processes and illustrates the value of agent-based modeling and its integration with ethnographic data analysis to advance the theory of collective decision making.
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