In the United Kingdom, dwelling fires are responsible for the majority of all fire-related fatalities. The development of these incidents involves the interaction of a multitude of variables that combine in many different ways. Consequently, assessment of dwelling fire risk can be complex, which often results in ambiguity during fire safety planning and decision making. In this article, a three-part Bayesian network model is proposed to study dwelling fires from ignition through to extinguishment in order to improve confidence in dwelling fire safety assessment. The model incorporates both hard and soft data, delivering posterior probabilities for selected outcomes. Case studies demonstrate how the model functions and provide evidence of its use for planning and accident investigation.
This research proposes the application of Bayesian networks in conducting quantitative risk assessment of the integrity of an offshore gas driven turbine, used for electrical power generation. The focus of the research is centred on the potential release of fuel gas from a turbine and the potential consequences that follow the said release, such as fire, explosion and damage to equipment within the electrical generation module. The Bayesian network demonstrates the interactions of potential initial events and failures, hazards, barriers and consequences involved in a fuel gas release. This model allows for quantitative analysis to demonstrate partial verification of the model. The verification of the model is demonstrated in a series of test cases and through sensitivity analysis. Test case 1 demonstrates the effects of individual and combined control system failures within the fuel gas release model; 2 demonstrates the effects of the 100% probability of a gas release on the Bayesian network model, along with the effect of the gas detection system not functioning; and 3 demonstrates the effects of inserting evidence as a consequence and observing the effects on prior nodes.
This paper investigates the benefits of applying a Bayesian Network in quantitative risk assessment of the integrity of an offshore gas turbine driven generator. The focus of the research is based on the potential failures and incidents associated with an offshore gas turbine running overspeed and failures within the switchboard. The potential consequences that follow said failures, such as fire, explosion and damage to mechanical equipment are also factored into the analysis. A methodology is outlined in order to construct a coherent BN model. This methodology consists of several steps, starting with identifying variables, to then constructing a qualitative BN model from these variables. The methodology culminates in validation of the BN model. A case study, regarding individual and combined component failures is also applied to demonstrate and validate the methodology. The Bayesian network allows the cause-effect relationships to be modelled through clear graphical representation. Similarly, the model can accommodate for continual updating of failure data. Partial validity of the model is demonstrated against some benchmark axioms. It is vital to maintain that the model must remain practical and close to reality from the perspective of gathering data and generating results.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.