This paper investigates the forecasting performance for CDS spreads of both linear and non-linear models by analysing the iTraxx Europe index during the financial crisis period which began in mid-2007. The statistical and economic significance of the models' forecasts are evaluated by employing various metrics and trading strategies, respectively. Although these models provide good in-sample performances, we find that the non-linear Markov switching models underperform linear models out-of-sample. In general, our results show some evidence of predictability of iTraxx index spreads. Linear models, in particular, generate positive Sharpe ratios for some of the strategies implemented, thus shedding some doubts on the efficiency of the European CDS index market.JEL classification: G01; G17; G20; C22; C24

This paper investigates the relationship between sovereign and bank CDS spreads with reference to their ability to convey timely signals on the default risk of European sovereign countries and their banking systems. By using a sample including six major European economies, we find that sovereign and bank CDS spreads are cointegrated variables at the country level. We then perform a more in-depth investigation of the underlying price discovery mechanisms, and find that both variables have an important price discovery role in the period preceding the financial crisis of [2007][2008][2009]. However, during the global financial crisis and the subsequent European sovereign debt crisis, sovereign CDS spreads dominate the price discovery process. Our findings suggest that, especially during crisis periods, sovereign CDS spreads incorporate more timely information on the default probability of European banks than their corresponding bank CDS spreads.JEL classification: G01; G12; G14; G20; D8

Credit spreads can be derived from the prices of securities traded in different markets. In this paper we investigate the price discovery process in single-name credit spreads obtained from bonds, credit default swaps, equities and equity options. Using a vector error correction model (VECM) of changes in credit spreads for a sample that includes the 2007-2009 financial crisis, we find that during periods of high volatility, price discovery takes place primarily in the option market, whilst the equity market leads the other markets during tranquil periods. By adding GARCH effects to the VECM specification, we also find strong evidence of volatility spillovers from the option market to the other markets in crisis periods. Finally, we show how time-varying measures of price discovery can be generated using GARCH models.JEL classification: G01; G12; G14; G20; D8

We find that managers receive more risk-taking incentives in their compensation packages once their firms are referenced by credit default swap (CDS) trading, particularly when institutional ownership is high and when firms are in financial distress. These findings provide suggestive evidence that boards offer pay packages that encourage greater risk taking to take advantage of the reduced creditor monitoring after CDS introduction. Further, we show that the onset of CDS trading attenuates the effect of vega on leverage, consistent with the threat of exacting creditors restraining managerial risk appetite.

We show how multivariate GARCH models can be used to generate a time-varying "information share" (Hasbrouck, 1995) to represent the changing patterns of price discovery in closely related securities. As an application we look at the credit spreads obtained from the credit default swap (CDS), bond, equity and option markets. Using data on Marks & Spencer Plc we find evidence of substantial time variation in the contributions of the different markets to the price discovery of credit risk. We also show how a time-varying information share can improve credit spread predictions.

We show how multivariate GARCH models can be used to generate a time-varying "information share" (Hasbrouck, 1995) to represent the changing patterns of price discovery in closely related securities. As an application we look at the credit spreads obtained from the credit default swap (CDS), bond, equity and option markets. Using data on Marks & Spencer Plc we find evidence of substantial time variation in the contributions of the different markets to the price discovery of credit risk. We also show how a time-varying information share can improve credit spread predictions. JEL classification: G01; G14

We find that managers receive more risk-taking incentives in their compensation packages once their firms are referenced by credit default swap (CDS) trading, particularly when institutional ownership is high and when firms are in financial distress. These findings provide suggestive evidence that boards offer pay packages that encourage greater risk taking to take advantage of the reduced creditor monitoring after CDS introduction. Further, we show that the onset of CDS trading attenuates the effect of vega on leverage, consistent with the threat of exacting creditors restraining managerial risk appetite.

We examine whether CDS contracts written on individual banks are effective leading indicators of bank financial distress during a period of systemic bank crisis. Changes in CDS spreads are found to yield a robust signal of failure across a set of European and US banks, in keeping with indirect market discipline. Furthermore, changes in CDS spreads provide information about the condition of banks which supplements that available from equity markets and contained in accounting metrics. Consistent results are detailed for both senior and subordinated CDS spreads. Our results hold out-of-sample, for logit and proportional hazards models, for various cohorts, for idiosyncratic changes in CDS and are robust to the use of alternative measures of bank distress, including rating downgrades and accounting risk.