SummaryBackgroundHow long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population’s state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years.MethodsWe used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males.FindingsGlobally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1–7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3–65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7–73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0–5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3–12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1–33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8–15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9–6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6–59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5–65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4–4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8–11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4–1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9–64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9–65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9–25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9–32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5–57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6–2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9–12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, a...

Summary Background Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9–78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8–75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0–49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0–44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97–6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74–6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08–6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61–1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69–2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (–2·3% [–5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases ...

Background Ambient air pollution is a major environmental cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Cities are generally hotspots for air pollution and disease. However, the exact extent of the health effects of air pollution at the city level is still largely unknown. We aimed to estimate the proportion of annual preventable deaths due to air pollution in almost 1000 cities in Europe.Methods We did a quantitative health impact assessment for the year 2015 to estimate the effect of air pollution exposure (PM 2•5 and NO 2 ) on natural-cause mortality for adult residents (aged ≥20 years) in 969 cities and 47 greater cities in Europe. We retrieved the cities and greater cities from the Urban Audit 2018 dataset and did the analysis at a 250 m grid cell level for 2015 data based on the global human settlement layer residential population. We estimated the annual premature mortality burden preventable if the WHO recommended values (ie, 10 µg/m³ for PM 2•5 and 40 µg/m³ for NO 2 ) were achieved and if air pollution concentrations were reduced to the lowest values measured in 2015 in European cities (ie, 3•7 µg/m³ for PM 2•5 and 3•5 µg/m³ for NO 2 ). We clustered and ranked the cities on the basis of population and age-standardised mortality burden associated with air pollution exposure. In addition, we did several uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our estimates. FindingsCompliance with WHO air pollution guidelines could prevent 51 213 (95% CI 34 036-68 682) deaths per year for PM 2•5 exposure and 900 (0-2476) deaths per year for NO 2 exposure. The reduction of air pollution to the lowest measured concentrations could prevent 124 729 (83 332-166 535) deaths per year for PM 2•5 exposure and 79 435 (0-215 165) deaths per year for NO 2 exposure. A great variability in the preventable mortality burden was observed by city, ranging from 0 to 202 deaths per 100 000 population for PM 2•5 and from 0 to 73 deaths for NO 2 per 100 000 population when the lowest measured concentrations were considered. The highest PM 2•5 mortality burden was estimated for cities in the Po Valley (northern Italy), Poland, and Czech Republic. The highest NO 2 mortality burden was estimated for large cities and capital cities in western and southern Europe. Sensitivity analyses showed that the results were particularly sensitive to the choice of the exposure response function, but less so to the choice of baseline mortality values and exposure assessment method.Interpretation A considerable proportion of premature deaths in European cities could be avoided annually by lowering air pollution concentrations, particularly below WHO guidelines. The mortality burden varied considerably between European cities, indicating where policy actions are more urgently needed to reduce air pollution and achieve sustainable, liveable, and healthy communities. Current guidelines should be revised and air pollution concentrations should be reduced further to achieve greater protection of health in cities.

No abstract

Active travel (cycling, walking) is beneficial for the health due to increased physical activity (PA). However, active travel may increase the intake of air pollution, leading to negative health consequences. We examined the riskbenefit balance between active travel related PA and exposure to air pollution across a range of air pollution and PA scenarios. The health effects of active travel and air pollution were estimated through changes in all-cause mortality for different levels of active travel and air pollution. Air pollution exposure was estimated through changes in background concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), ranging from 5 to 200 μg/m3. For active travel exposure, we estimated cycling and walking from 0 up to 16 h per day, respectively. These refer to long-term average levels of active travel and PM 2.5 exposure. For the global average urban background PM 2.5 concentration (22 μg/m3) benefits of PA by far outweigh risks from air pollution even under the most extreme levels of active travel. In areas with PM 2.5 concentrations of 100 μg/m3, harms would exceed benefits after 1 h 30 min of cycling per day or more than 10 h of walking per day. If the counterfactual was driving, rather than staying at home, the benefits of PA would exceed harms from air pollution up to 3 h 30 min of cycling per day. The results were sensitive to dose-response function (DRF) assumptions for PM 2.5 and PA. PA benefits of active travel outweighed the harm caused by air pollution in all but the most extreme air pollution concentrations.

Background Natural outdoor environments including green spaces play an important role in preserving population health and wellbeing in cities, but the number of deaths that could be prevented by increasing green space in European cities is not known. We aimed to estimate the number of natural-cause deaths among adult residents that could be prevented in cities in 31 European countries, if the WHO recommendation for universal access to green space was achieved. MethodsIn this health impact assessment study we focused on adult residents (aged ≥20 years; n=169 134 322) in 978 cities and 49 greater cities, in 31 European countries. We used two green space proxies: normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), and percentage of green area (%GA). The exposure was estimated at a fine grid-cell level (250 m × 250 m) and the preventable mortality burden for 2015 was estimated at the local city-level.Findings For 2015 we found that meeting the WHO recommendation of access to green space could prevent 42 968 (95% CI 32 296-64 177) deaths annually using the NDVI proxy (ie, 20% [95% CI 15-30] of deaths per 100 000 inhabitants-year), which represents 2•3% (95% CI 1•7-3•4) of the total natural-cause mortality and 245 (95% CI 184-366) years of life lost per 100 000 inhabitants-year. For the %GA proxy 17 947 (95%CI 0-35 747) deaths could be prevented annually. For %GA the number of attributable deaths were half of that of the NDVI and results were non-significant due to the exposure response function considered. The distribution of NDVI and %GA varied between cities and was not equally distributed within cities. Among European capitals, Athens, Brussels, Budapest, Copenhagen, and Riga showed some of the highest mortality burdens due to the lack of green space. The main source of uncertainty for our results was the choice of the agestructures of the population for the NDVI analysis, and exposure-response function for the %GA analysis.Interpretation A large number of premature deaths in European cities could be prevented by increasing exposure to green space, while contributing to sustainable, liveable and healthy cities.

Active travel (walking or cycling for transport) is considered the most sustainable form of personal transport. Yet its net effects on mobilityrelated CO 2 emissions are complex and under-researched. Here we collected travel activity data in seven European cities and derived life cycle CO 2 emissions across modes and purposes. Daily mobility-related life cycle CO 2 emissions were 3.2 kgCO 2 per person, with car travel contributing 70% and cycling 1%. Cyclists had 84% lower life cycle CO 2 emissions than non-cyclists. Life cycle CO 2 emissions decreased by-14% per additional cycling trip and decreased by-62% for each avoided car trip. An average person who 'shifted travel modes' from car to bike decreased life cycle CO 2 emissions by 3.2 kgCO 2 /day. Promoting active travel should be a cornerstone of strategies to meet net zero carbon targets, particularly in urban areas, while also improving public health and quality of urban life.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to shape urban life and significantly modify travel behaviors. “Autonomous technology” means technology that can drive a vehicle without active physical control or monitoring by a human operator. The first AV fleets are already in service in US cities. AVs offer a variety of automation, vehicle ownership, and vehicle use options. AVs could increase some health risks (such as air pollution, noise, and sedentarism); however, if proper regulated, AVs will likely reduce morbidity and mortality from motor vehicle crashes and may help reshape cities to promote healthy urban environments. Healthy models of AV use include fully electric vehicles in a system of ridesharing and ridesplitting. Public health will benefit if proper policies and regulatory frameworks are implemented before the complete introduction of AVs into the market.