While the ecology and evolution of partial migratory systems (defined broadly to include skip spawning) have been well studied, we are only beginning to understand how partial migratory populations are responding to ongoing environmental change. Environmental change can lead to differences in the fitness of residents and migrants, which could eventually lead to changes in the frequency of the strategies in the overall population. Here, we address questions concerning the life history of the endangered Gila cypha (humpback chub) in the regulated Colorado River and the unregulated tributary and primary spawning area, the Little Colorado River. We develop eight multistate models for the population based on three movement hypotheses, in which states are defined in terms of fish size classes and river locations. We fit these models to mark–recapture data collected in 2009–2012. We compare survival and growth estimates between the Colorado River and Little Colorado River and calculate abundances for all size classes. The best model supports the hypotheses that larger adults spawn more frequently than smaller adults, that there are residents in the spawning grounds, and that juveniles move out of the Little Colorado River in large numbers during the monsoon season (July–September). Monthly survival rates for G. cypha in the Colorado River are higher than in the Little Colorado River in all size classes; however, growth is slower. While the hypothetical life histories of life-long residents in the Little Colorado River and partial migrants spending most of its time in the Colorado River are very different, they lead to roughly similar fitness expectations when we used expected number of spawns as a proxy. However, more research is needed because our study period covers a period of years when conditions in the Colorado River for G. cypha are likely to have been better than has been typical over the last few decades.

The abundance of the Little Colorado River population of federally listed humpback chub Gila cypha in Grand Canyon has been monitored since the late 1980s by means of catch rate indices and capture–recapture‐based abundance estimators. Analyses of data from all sources using various methods are consistent and indicate that the adult population has declined since monitoring began. Intensive tagging led to a high proportion (>80%) of the adult population being marked by the mid‐1990s. Analysis of these data using both closed and open abundance estimation models yields results that agree with catch rate indices about the extent of the decline. Survival rates for age‐2 and older fish are age dependent but apparently not time dependent. Back‐calculation of recruitment using the apparent 1990s population age structure implies periods of higher recruitment in the late 1970s to early 1980s than is now the case. Our analyses indicate that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recovery criterion of stable abundance is not being met for this population. Also, there is a critical need to develop new abundance indexing and tagging methods so that early, reliable, and rapid estimates of humpback chub recruitment can be obtained to evaluate population responses to management actions designed to facilitate the restoration of Colorado River native fish communities.

The lower perennial corridor of the Little Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona, is numerically dominated by endemic desert fishes and therefore significant for conservation of these species. From 2000 to 2012, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service conducted monitoring of native fishes in the Little Colorado River near its confluence with the Colorado River. The primary focus of these efforts was to estimate the spring and fall abundance of native fishes, especially the federally endangered humpback chub Gila cypha. Because humpback chub in Grand Canyon are influenced by operations of Glen Canyon Dam, our efforts provide managers of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program with abundance estimates and trends of humpback chub in the Little Colorado River, the most important tributary in Grand Canyon for spawning and production of this species. From 2001 to 2006, the spring abundance estimates of humpback chub ≥150 and ≥200 mm remained relatively low (≤3,419 and ≤2,002 fish, respectively), thereafter significantly increasing to highs of 8,083 and 6,250, respectively, by spring 2010. Also from 2000 to 2006, the fall abundance estimates of humpback chub were substantially below those abundances estimated after 2006. In addition, flannelmouth sucker Catostomus latipinnis and bluehead sucker Catostomus discobolus showed post-2006 increases in relative abundance, suggesting a systemwide event occurred that was beneficial to native fishes. Most of the increases of humpback chub occurred during the spring season in the reaches of the Little Colorado River between 5 and 13.57 km upstream from the confluence. Successful production of age 0 year classes of humpback chub may be partially driven by hydrograph dynamics of the Little Colorado River, whereas water temperatures and predation pressures in the mainstem Colorado River likely influence survivorship of native fishes into subadult and adult life stages.

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Ecologists estimate vital rates, such as growth and survival, to better understand population dynamics and identify sensitive life history parameters for species or populations of concern. Here, we assess spatiotemporal variation in growth, movement, density, and survival of subadult humpback chub living in the Little Colorado River, Grand Canyon, AZ from 2001-2002 and 2009-2013. We divided the Little Colorado River into three reaches and used a multistate mark-recapture model to determine rates of movement and differences in survival and density between sites for different cohorts. Additionally, site-specific and year-specific effects on growth were evaluated using a linear model. Results indicate that summer growth was higher for upstream sites compared with downstream sites. In contrast, there was not a consistent spatial pattern across years in winter growth; however, river-wide winter growth was negatively related to the duration of floods from 1 October to 15 May. Apparent survival was estimated to be lower at the most downstream site compared with the upstream sites; however, this could be because in part of increased emigration into the Colorado River at downstream sites. Furthermore, the 2010 cohort (i.e. fish that are age 1 in 2010) exhibited high apparent survival relative to other years. Movement between reaches varied with year, and some years exhibited preferential upstream displacement. Improving understanding of spatiotemporal effects on age 1 humpback chub survival can help inform current management efforts to translocate humpback chub into new locations and give us a better understanding of the factors that may limit this tributary's carrying capacity for humpback chub. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

1. Managers often move, or translocate, organisms into habitats that are assumed to be suitable; however, the consequences of these translocations are usually not rigorously assessed. Robust assessment of these management experiments should consider impacts to both donor and recipient populations and compare the costeffectiveness of translocations to other actions.2. Here we evaluate the translocations of a federally listed fish species, humpback chub within a tributary to the Colorado River in its Grand Canyon reach (Arizona, USA). We analyse mark-recapture data with multistate models to estimate vital rates (growth, survival and movement) for the donor and recipient populations while accounting for substantial temporal variation in vital rates. We then use stochastic matrix projections to quantify the impact of translocations on adult population size. Lastly, we compare the costs of translocations to another, legally required management action, non-native fish removal, by modifying an existing bioeconomic model.3. We estimate that six of eight translocations during the study period positively impacted adult abundance and that the overall population impact was positive.Population projections suggest that each chub translocated per year increases the equilibrium adult population size by 1.2 (95% CI: 0.4-2.2) adults, lessening the need for non-native fish removal.4. The continuation of translocations at the current rate is expected to save managers ~$50,000 per year by decreasing the annual probability of removals from 0.26 to 0.15. Further savings and decreases in removals could be attained by avoiding translocations in years when there has been no winter/spring runoff and modifying the number of translocated individuals based on the estimates of juvenile production in the lower Little Colorado River. Synthesis and applications.Translocations that increase the abundance of a rare species can sometimes be viewed as a hedge against future declines that might necessitate more costly interventions. Quantifying population benefits and economic costs of management actions like translocations and comparing alternative actions can lead to cost-effective conservation that is more easily sustained.

Choosing whether or not to migrate is an important life history decision for many fishes. Here we combine data from physical captures and detections on autonomous passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag antennas to study migration in an endangered fish, the humpback chub (Gila cypha). We develop hidden Markov mark-recapture models with and without antenna detections and find that the model fit without antenna detections misses a large proportion of fish and underestimates migration and survival probabilities. We then assess survival and growth differences associated with life history strategy and migration for different demographic groups (small male, small female, large male, large female). We find large differences in survival according to life history strategy, where residents had much lower over-winter survival than migrants. However, within the migratory life history strategy, survival and growth were similar for active migrants and skipped migrants for all demographic groups. We discuss some common challenges to incorporating detections from autonomous antennas into population models and demonstrate how these data can provide insight about fish movement and life history strategies.