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As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

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Climate change is altering insect disturbance regimes via temperature-mediated phenological changes and trophic interactions among host trees, herbivorous insects, and their natural enemies in boreal forests. Range expansion and increase in outbreak severity of forest insects are occurring in Europe and North America. The degree to which northern forest ecosystems are resilient to novel disturbance regimes will have direct consequences for the provisioning of goods and services from these forests and for long-term forest management planning. Among major ecological disturbance agents in the boreal forests of North America is a tortricid moth, the eastern spruce budworm, which defoliates fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.). Northern expansion of this defoliator in eastern North America and climateinduced narrowing of the phenological mismatch between the insect and its secondary host, black spruce (Picea mariana), may permit greater defoliation and mortality in extensive northern black spruce forests. Although spruce budworm outbreak centers have appeared in the boreal black spruce zone historically, defoliation and mortality were minor. Potential increases in outbreak severity and tree mortality raise concerns about the future state of this northern ecosystem. Severe spruce budworm outbreaks could decrease stand productivity compared with their occurrence in more diverse, southern balsam fir forest landscapes that have coevolved with outbreaks. Furthermore, depending on the proportion of balsam fir and deciduous species present and fire recurrence, changes in regeneration patterns and in nutrient cycling could alter ecosystem dynamics and replace black spruce by more productive mixedwood forest, or by less productive ericaceous shrublands. Long-term monitoring, manipulative experiments, and process modeling of climate-induced phenological changes on herbivorous insect pests, their host tree species, and natural enemies in northern forests are therefore crucial to predicting species range shifts and assessing ecological and economic impacts.

, T. 2001. Impacts of clearcut harvesting and wildfire on soil nutrient status in the Quebec boreal forest. Can. J. Soil Sci. 81: 229-237. Wildfire has historically been the major cause of stand initiation in the boreal forest, shaping species diversity, successional and ecosystem processes. Clearcut harvesting may differ from fire in its effects on soil and vegetation processes and thus may cause long-term changes in stand productivity or biodiversity. This study compared the soil properties of mesic black spruce (Picea mariana) stands burned 2, 14, 21 yr prior to sampling, with stands clearcut within ±3 yr of each wildfire and recently undisturbed control stands. The forest floor (FH) and mineral soil (0-10 cm) were sampled volumetrically, air dried and analysed for pH, organic carbon content, available P, Ca, Mg, and K, mineralizable N and nitrification. Forest floors were also digested and analysed for total N, P, K, Ca and Mg. Significant differences between disturbed and control stands were observed in all study areas, with disturbance effects generally decreasing with time since disturbance. Burned stands generally had forest floors with thinner humus layers, lower mass of organic carbon, higher pH, and higher concentrations of total and available nutrients than in either clearcut or control stands. Significant losses in the total mass of N and K in the forest floor were observed in the youngest burned stands as well as a pulse of extractable P that was at least four times higher than cut or control stands in any other treatment or study area. The forest floor of cut stands had greater mass of organic matter and total nutrients, and higher levels of potentially mineralizable N than either fire or control stands. No significant nutrient loss was observed following clearcut harvesting in any study area. Overall, this study suggested that clearcut harvesting can result in changes to the status of soil nutrients that are different from those produced by wildfire. Further study is necessary to determine whether these differences have significant effects on the long-term productivity or biodiversity of the boreal forest. Les feux irréprimés ont toujours été la principale cause du renouvellement des peuplements dans la forêt boréale. Ce sont eux qui commandent la diversité des espèces, la succession de ces dernières et les fonctionnement de l'écosystème. La coupe à blanc pourrait ne pas avoir les mêmes conséquences sur les processus du sol et de la végétation, et on pourrait se assister à des changements à long terme au niveau de la productivité ou de la diversité biologique du peuplement. Les auteurs ont comparé les propriétés du sol de peuplements mésiques d'épinettes noires (Picea mariana) ravagés par le feu 2, 14 et 21 ans avant l'échantillonnage à celles du sol de peuplements coupés à blanc plus ou moins trois ans avant les feux de forêt et de peuplements témoins intacts. Les auteurs ont prélevé des échantillons volumétriques de la couverture morte (CM) et du sol minéral (de 0 à 10 cm), les ont séchés à l'a...

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Variation in canopy composition can influence ecosystem processes, such as nutrient cycling and light transmittance, even when environmental soil conditions are similar. To determine whether forest cover type influences species composition of the understory vegetation (herbs and shrubs), the composition of this layer was studied on two different surface deposits, clay and till, and under four different forest cover types dominated, respectively, by Populus tremuloïdes Michx. (aspen), Betula papyrifera Marsh. (white birch), Pinus banksiana Lamb. (jack pine), and Picea glauca (Moench) Voss -Abies balsamea (L.) Mill. (spruce-fir) over similar environmental conditions. Detrended correspondence analysis and analysis of variance performed on the ordination scores revealed that understory plant composition was highly affected by surface deposit and forest cover. The gradient observed in the correspondence analysis proceeds from aspen, white birch, spruce-fir, to jack pine. Indicator species were identified for each surface deposit and cover type, and most of them were associated with either jack pine or aspen. The richness, evenness, and diversity of the understory vegetation did not vary between cover types, but were affected by surface deposit. By controlling ecosystem processes such as light transmittance and nutrient cycling, forest cover influences understory composition.Résumé : La composition du peuplement peut affecter les processus écosystémiques, tels que le cycle des éléments nutritifs et la transmission lumineuse, malgré la présence de conditions environnementales similaires. Afin de vérifier si le couvert arborescent influence la composition de la strate de sous-bois, des relevés de la végétation herbacée et arbustive ont été effectués dans des conditions environnementales détendancées similaires, incluant deux dépôts de surface différents, till et argile, et quatre couverts forestiers dominés respectivement par les Populus tremuloïdes Michx. (peuplier faux-tremble), Betula papyrifera Marsh. (bouleau blanc), Pinus banksiana Lamb. (pin gris) et Picea glauca (Moench) Voss et Abies balsamea (L.) Mill. (épinette-sapin). L'analyse des correspondances détendancées et l'analyse de variance effectuées sur les coordonnées des axes de l'ordination révèlent un effet du dépôt de surface et du couvert arborescent.Le gradient observé en analyse des correspondances va du peuplier faux-tremble, bouleau blanc, mélange de conifères, au pin gris. Des espèces indicatrices ont été identifiées pour chacun des dépôts de surface et couverts forestiers, et la majorité d'entre-elles étaient associées soit au pin gris soit au peuplier faux-tremble. La richesse, l'équitabilité et la diversité de la strate de sous-bois ne varient pas en fonction du couvert forestier, mais sont significativement affectées par le dépôt de surface. Les différents processus écosystémiques, tels que la transmission de la lumière et le cycle des éléments nutritifs, semblent expliquer l'influence du couvert forestier sur la composition de la strate de sous-bo...