The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but simple enough to be applied over entire watersheds. It accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of potential landslides using earth pressure theory and by representing root reinforcement as an exponential function of soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are well constrained by field data. The model predicts failure for the observed scar geometry and finds that larger or smaller conformal shapes are more stable. Numerical experiments demonstrate that friction on the boundaries of a potential landslide increases considerably the magnitude of lateral reinforcement, relative to that due to root cohesion alone. We find that there is a critical depth in both cohesive and cohesionless soils, resulting in a minimum size for failure, which is consistent with observed size-frequency distributions. Furthermore, the differential resistance on the boundaries of a potential landslide is responsible for a critical landslide shape which is longer than it is wide, consistent with observed aspect ratios. Finally, our results show that minimum size increases as approximately the square of failure surface depth, consistent with observed landslide depth-area data.

[1] Overland flow is an important component of peatland hydrology. Hydrological models of peatlands are being developed that require estimates of flow velocity and its controls. However, surprisingly little is known about overland flow velocities in peatlands. Some peatlands have also been drained using open ditches, and these need to be incorporated into flow models. This paper presents field data on the velocity of overland flow and drain flow in upland peatlands. The relationships between flow velocity, vegetation cover, slope, and water depth are explored. Sphagnum provided a significantly greater effective hydraulic roughness to overland flow than peatland grasses. In all cases, a significant break in process occurred for flows with water depths of around 1 cm so that there were two components of the roughness curve. This is consistent with partial submergence theory for very shallow flows where resistance increases with depth as the soil surface first becomes fully submerged. While each surface cover type should be considered separately, the results also suggest that a first-order estimate of DarcyWeisbach roughness and mean velocity can be based on a single parameter for each surface cover. This paper presents an empirical overland flow velocity forecasting model that can be applied to peatlands. The model combines the partially submerged component for flows with water depths below 1 cm with the fully submerged component for flows with depths up to 5 cm, which are representative of the depths of flows that occur across peatlands.

. (2012) 'Modelling the eects of sediment compaction on salt marsh reconstructions of recent sea-level rise.', Earth and planetary science letters., 345-348 . pp. 180-193. Further information on publisher's website:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2012.06.045Publisher's copyright statement: NOTICE: this is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in Earth and Planetary Science Letters. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A denitive version was subsequently published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 345348, 2012Letters, 345348, , 10.1016Letters, 345348, /j.epsl.2012 Additional information: Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. AbstractThis paper quantifies the potential influence of sediment compaction on the magnitude of nineteenth and twentieth century sea-level rise, as reconstructed from salt marsh sediments.We firstly develop a database of the physical and compression properties of low energy intertidal and salt marsh sediments. Key compression parameters are controlled by organic content (loss on ignition), though compressibility is modulated by local-scale processes, notably the potential for desiccation of sediments. Using this database and standard geotechnical theory, we use a numerical modelling approach to generate and subsequently 'decompact' a range of idealised intertidal stratigraphies. We find that compression can significantly contribute to reconstructed accelerations in recent sea level, notably in transgressive stratigraphies. The magnitude of this effect can be sufficient to add between 0.1 and 0.4 mm yr -1 of local sea-level rise, depending on the thickness of the stratigraphic column. In contrast, records from shallow (< 0.5 m) uniform-lithology stratigraphies, or shallow near-surface salt marsh deposits in regressive successions, experience negligible compaction. Spatial variations in compression could be interpreted as 'sea-level fingerprints'that might, in turn, be wrongly attributed to oceanic or cryospheric processes. However,

Following a large continental earthquake, information on the spatial distribution of triggered landslides is required as quickly as possible for use in emergency response coordination. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) methods have the potential to overcome variability in weather conditions, which often causes delays of days or weeks when mapping landslides using optical satellite imagery. Here we test landslide classifiers based on SAR coherence, which is estimated from the similarity in phase change in time between small ensembles of pixels. We test two existing SAR-coherence-based landslide classifiers against an independent inventory of landslides triggered following the Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake, and present and test a new method, which uses a classifier based on coherence calculated from ensembles of neighbouring pixels and coherence calculated from a more dispersed ensemble of ‘sibling’ pixels. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis, we show that none of these three SAR-coherence-based landslide classification methods are suitable for mapping individual landslides on a pixel-by-pixel basis. However, they show potential in generating lower-resolution density maps, which are used by emergency responders following an earthquake to coordinate large-scale operations and identify priority areas. The new method we present outperforms existing methods when tested at these lower resolutions, suggesting that it may be able to provide useful and rapid information on landslide distributions following major continental earthquakes.

Abstract. Landslides triggered by large earthquakes in mountainous regions contribute significantly to overall earthquake losses and pose a major secondary hazard that can persist for months or years. While scientific investigations of coseismic landsliding are increasingly common, there is no protocol for rapid (hours-to-days) humanitarian-facing landslide assessment and no published recognition of what is possible and what is useful to compile immediately after the event. Drawing on the 2015 M w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, we consider how quickly a landslide assessment based upon manual satellite-based emergency mapping (SEM) can be realistically achieved and review the decisions taken by analysts to ascertain the timeliness and type of useful information that can be generated. We find that, at present, many forms of landslide assessment are too slow to generate relative to the speed of a humanitarian response, despite increasingly rapid access to high-quality imagery. Importantly, the value of information on landslides evolves rapidly as a disaster response develops, so identifying the purpose, timescales, and end users of a post-earthquake landslide assessment is essential to inform the approach taken. It is clear that discussions are needed on the form and timing of landslide assessments, and how best to present and share this information, before rather than after an earthquake strikes. In this paper, we share the lessons learned from the Gorkha earthquake, with the aim of informing the approach taken by scientists to understand the evolving landslide hazard in future events and the expectations of the humanitarian community involved in disaster response.