Background: Cellulitis is common and recurs in some patients. The study described herein derived a predictive model for the recurrence of lower extremity cellulitis in a population-based cohort. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, populationbased cohort study using the Rochester Epidemiology Project. We reviewed the medical records of Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with lower extremity cellulitis occurring from January 1, 1999, to June 30, 2000. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed to evaluate risk factors in patients who experienced recurrent lower extremity cellulitis within 2 years. A predictive model was developed to estimate risk of recurrence based on a score of risk factors identified by multivariate analysis. Results: A total of 209 episodes met the definition of lower extremity cellulitis. Thirty-five patients (16.7%) experienced recurrence within 2 years. Multivariate analysis identified tibial area involvement, prior malignancy, and dermatitis affecting the ipsilateral limb as independent risk factors for recurrence, with hazard ratios of 5.02, 3.87, and 2.99 (PϽ.01), respectively. A score calculated from these variables (a count of 0, 1, 2, or 3) was developed to measure risk of recurrence. Based on the predictive model, the estimated probability of recurrence (95% confidence interval [CI]) within 2 years was 5.0% (95% CI, 1.6%-8.2%), 17.3% (95% CI, 11.1%-23.0%), 50.6% (95% CI, 34.2%-63.0%), or 92.8% (95% CI, 51.9%-98.9%) for a score of 0, 1, 2 or 3, respectively. Conclusions: We derived a model including tibial area involvement, history of cancer, and dermatitis to predict recurrence of lower extremity cellulitis. Potential interventions can be incorporated into treatment to diminish the proclivity for recurrence in high-risk patients.

In Britain and the USA, policy-makers are promoting student teachers' knowledge of subjects and their application of subject knowledge in the classroom as a key element in the reform of teacher training. The educational arguments which support this policy are reviewed together with recent studies which have investigated the ways in which students' knowledge of subjects may inform their teaching. Issues emerging from the discussion which need to be addressed by teacher educators responsible for main subject study and application include: the scope of students' knowledge and coverage of subject matter, an appreciation of the manner in which students' application of subject matter is shaped by classroom practice, and the need to ensure that knowledge of the subject is combined with an understanding of the child.

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A substantial body of published research has investigated teacher thinking and it claims to be relevant for teacher-educators who wish to foster student teachers' critical reflection. Basic issues concerning this research are examined critically, with particular reference to its value for teacher-educators. In the light of this assessment, proposals are made as to how teacher-educators may ensure that student teachers become reflective practitioners.

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