Complex systems and realist evaluation offer promising approaches for evaluating social interventions. These approaches take into account the complex interplay among factors to produce outcomes, instead of attempting to isolate single causes of observed effects. This paper explores the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) in realist evaluation of interventions to prevent complex social problems. It draws on the example of the theory-based evaluation of the Work in Freedom Programme (WIF), a large UK-funded anti-trafficking intervention by the International Labour Organisation in South Asia. We used BN to explore causal pathways to human trafficking using data from 519 Nepalese returnee migrants. The findings suggest that risks of trafficking are mostly determined by migrants’ destination country, how they are recruited and in which sector they work. These findings challenge widely held assumptions about individual-level vulnerability and emphasize that future investments will benefit from approaches that recognise the complexity of an intervention’s causal mechanisms in social contexts. BNs are a useful approach for the conceptualisation, design and evaluation of complex social interventions.

Background Africa is the global region where modern-slavery is most prevalent, especially among women and girls. Despite the severe health consequences of human trafficking, evidence on the risks and experiences of trafficked adolescents and young women is scarce for the region. This paper addresses this gap by exploring the intersections between violence, migration and exploitation among girls and young women identified as trafficking survivors in Nigeria and Uganda. Methods We conducted secondary analysis of the largest routine dataset on human trafficking survivors. We used descriptive statistics to report the experiences of female survivors younger than 25 years-old from Nigeria and Uganda. We also conducted 16 semi-structured interviews with adolescents identified as trafficked in both countries. We used thematic analysis to explore participants’ perceptions and experiences before, during and after the trafficking situation. Results Young female survivors of human trafficking in Nigeria and Uganda are exposed to a range of experiences of violence before migration, during transit and at destination. The qualitative data revealed that children and adolescents migrated to escape family poverty, violence and neglect. They had very low levels of education and most had their studies interrupted before migrating. Family members and close social contacts were the most common intermediaries for their migration. During transit, sexual violence and hunger were common, especially among Nigerians. Participants in both the quantitative and qualitative studies reported high levels of violence, deception, coercion, withheld wages and poor working conditions at destination. The adolescents interviewed in the qualitative study reported severe mental suffering, including suicide attempts. Only one reported the prosecution of perpetrators. Conclusions Our findings suggest that interventions to prevent or mitigate the negative impact of adverse childhood experiences can contribute to preventing the trafficking of adolescents in Nigeria and Uganda. These interventions include social protection mechanisms, universal access to education, social service referrals and education of parents and carers. Importantly, effective prevention also needs to address the systemic conditions that makes trafficking of female adolescents invisible, profitable and inconsequential for perpetrators.

Globally, one fifth of individuals aged 15-24 are 'not in employment, education or training' (NEET). NEETs have become an increasingly important notion in international debate, although criticisms are directed at its all-encompassing nature and lack of concern with the intergenerational, gendered, social and systemic inequalities that influence young people becoming NEETs. Prevalence of youth NEETs is especially high in Latin America, with women disproportionally affected. Brazil has one of the highest absolute numbers of NEETs in LAC. This paper uses data from the last Brazilian census to examine contextual drivers of NEETs in Brazil, and to critically assess broader implications for policy. In Brazil, states with higher coefficients of social inequality and levels of criminality are more likely to have higher proportion of youth NEET. Globally, social inequalities associated with gender, race and crime are pervasive drivers of young NEET status. Latin American youth are in a particularly disadvantageous position. Policies that aim to overcome social exclusion and marginalisation of youth need to focus on systemic drivers of the NEET condition among vulnerable subgroups of young people.