Migration models have considered several different categories of determinants, including economic opportunities, amenities, and state and local fiscal factors. Migration has also been shown to depend on the individual's position in the life cycle. This paper represents a first attempt to integrate all three categories of determinants of migration into a life-cycle framework. Empirical findings generated from a countrywide model of white male migration, over the period 1970 to 1980, reveal that all three types of determinants are important. Specifically, economic opportunities are most influential for males during their working years. Amenities are also found to follow a life-cycle pattern with older migrants more attracted to amenable locations than their younger cohorts. Finally, state income and death taxes display life-cycle effects; working males in their peak earning years are detracted by high income taxes while all migrants aged 55 to 69 avoid counties in states with high inheritance and estate taxes.

There are several hypotheses why urban scale affects wages. Most focus on agglomeration economies that increase labor demand, especially for high-skilled workers (e.g., dynamic externalities stress knowledge transfers, and imply the urban wage gap favors skilled workers). Others stress urban amenities that increase labor supply and decrease wages. Amenities should have a stronger influence on affluent households if they are normal goods. By examining whether urban-scale affects net returns to education, it can be determined whether skilled workers are influenced more by urban productivity or amenities. Empirical results suggest net returns to education decline with urban scale, implying a key role for urban amenities in affecting skilled workers.

"Regional scientists remain interested in studying interregional differences in the growth rates of population and employment. Following the earlier work of Carlino and Mills, this paper examines growth trends at the county level in the U.S. during the period 1981-1989. Five major sectors of employment are examined. A partial adjustment model is developed that captures intercounty differences in amenities, business and fiscal conditions, demography, employment structure, and relative location. Some evidence is given that population and employment growth was simultaneous, although feedback effects apparently were not strong."

"The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of locational and individual characteristics upon interstate retiree migration, particularly in state-level public policy variables. Data regarding the characteristics of individual movers are drawn from the 1990 U.S. Census of Population and Housing 5% Public Use Microdata Sample. The household data are merged with location-specific attributes including both natural amenities and local fiscal variables." Three alternative models are developed, involving push factors, pull factors, and differences in site characteristics experienced by migrants. "The results indicate that both personal and locational characteristics are important factors determining the decision of elderly migrants to change their state of residence. While there is some limited support for the push and pull specifications, the difference model is found to provide the best overall fit."

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Although the US airline industry began 2001 with 24 consecutive profitable quarters, including net profits in 2000 totaling $7.9 billion, the impact of the 9/11 event on the industry was substantial. Whereas the recession that began in early 2001 signaled the end of profitability, the 9/11 terrorist attacks pushed the industry into financial crisis after air travel dropped 20% over the September-December 2001 period compared to the same period in 2000. Given the decline in domestic air travel, an important question is whether the detrimental impact of the attacks was temporary or permanent. That is, did airline travel return to the trend that existed prior to the terrorist attacks? There are theoretical reasons to the believe that it would not. Economists have long viewed travel-mode choices as the outcome of a comparison of opportunity costs and benefits. Thus, anything that permanently raises the opportunity cost of travel, holding benefits constant, should reduce the level of travel volume. To determine whether air travel was permanently reduced, we use econometric and time-series forecasting models NOT THE PUBLISHED VERSION; this is the author's final, peer-reviewed manuscript. The published version may be accessed by following the link in the citation at the bottom of the page. 2 to generate a counter-factual forecast of air travel volume in the absence of the terrorist attacks. These dynamic forecasts are compared to actual air travel levels to determine the impact of the terrorist attacks. The findings suggest that domestic air travel did not return to the levels that would have existed in the absence of the attack.

The quality of public schools is often cited as an important attribute which distinguishes a community. Indeed, a recent public opinion poll conducted by the California Public Education Partnership indicates that residents rank improvements in public education higher than such high profile issues as environmental quality and crime reduction. In order to explore the role of educational quality in determining residential property values, a hedonic housing price model is used on a large sample of homes which sold within Fresno County in California over the period 1990-1994. After controlling for a wide range of housing characteristics and neighborhood features, the findings indicate that the school district does significantly influence the real sale price. Then the relative importance of inputs into the production of educational services is investigated as compared to output measures of productivity. These findings suggest that both input and output measures are important. However, elasticity estimates of input measures tend to be higher than those of output measures, with the average class size by far the strongest influence. There is some evidence to suggest that the benefits of additional teachers likely outweigh the costs. Finally, the findings suggest that attributes of schools are more highly valued by local residents than either crime or environmental quality measures within the community. Copyright 2000 Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky.

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