The COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated a global crisis, with more than 1,430,000 confirmed cases and more than 85,000 confirmed deaths globally as of 9 April 2020 1-4 . Mitigation and suppression of new infections have emerged as the two predominant public health control strategies 5 . Both strategies focus on reducing new infections by limiting human-to-human interactions, which could be both socially and economically unsustainable in the long term. We have developed and analyzed an epidemiological intervention model that leverages serological tests 6,7 to identify and deploy recovered individuals 8 as focal points for sustaining safer interactions via interaction substitution, developing what we term 'shield immunity' at the population scale. The objective of a shield immunity strategy is to help to sustain the interactions necessary for the functioning of essential goods and services 9 while reducing the probability of transmission. Our shield immunity approach could substantively reduce the length and reduce the overall burden of the current outbreak, and can work synergistically with social distancing. The present model highlights the value of serological testing as part of intervention strategies, in addition to its well-recognized roles in estimating prevalence 10,11 and in the potential development of plasma-based therapies 12-15 .In the absence of reliable pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV-2, multiple public health strategies are being deployed to slow the coronavirus pandemic 1,5,16 . These strategies can be broadly grouped into two approaches: mitigation and suppression. Mitigation includes a combination of social distancing (including school and university closures), case testing and symptomatic case isolation to reduce epidemic spread and burden on hospitals. Mitigation is intended to lessen an outbreak. However, the number of cases might still overwhelm health services 5 . Some jurisdictions have either preemptively or reactively adopted a combination of travel restrictions (shown to be effective in curtailing dispersion if implemented early enough 17,18 ) and suppression, which involves imposing complete shutdowns of the bulk of non-essential services for extended periods. Suppression strategies have led to marked decreases in new case rates in the short term by combining case isolation, quarantine, use of separate facilities for treating COVID-19 patients and large-scale

The genus Micromonas comprises phytoplankton that show among the widest latitudinal distributions on Earth, and members of this genus are recurrently infected by prasinoviruses in contrasted thermal ecosystems. In this study, we assessed how temperature influences the interplay between the main genetic clades of this prominent microalga and their viruses. The growth of three Micromonas strains (Mic-A, Mic-B, Mic-C) and the stability of their respective lytic viruses (MicV-A, MicV-B, MicV-C) were measured over a thermal range of 4-32.5°C. Similar growth temperature optima (T opt ) were predicted for all three hosts but Mic-B exhibited a broader thermal tolerance than Mic-A and Mic-C, suggesting distinct thermoacclimation strategies. Similarly, the MicV-C virus displayed a remarkable thermal stability compared with MicV-A and MicV-B. Despite these divergences, infection dynamics showed that temperatures below T opt lengthened lytic cycle kinetics and reduced viral yield and, notably, that infection at temperatures above T opt did not usually result in cell lysis. Two mechanisms operated depending on the temperature and the biological system. Hosts either prevented the production of viral progeny or maintained their ability to produce virions with no apparent cell lysis, pointing to a possible switch in the viral life strategy. Hence, temperature changes critically affect the outcome of Micromonas infection and have implications for ocean biogeochemistry and evolution.

Photosynthetic picoeukaryotesx in the genus Micromonas show among the widest latitudinal distributions on Earth, experiencing large thermal gradients from poles to tropics. Micromonas comprises at least four different species often found in sympatry. While such ubiquity might suggest a wide thermal niche, the temperature response of the different strains is still unexplored, leaving many questions as for their ecological success over such diverse ecosystems. Using combined experiments and theory, we characterize the thermal response of eleven Micromonas strains belonging to four species. We demonstrate that the variety of specific responses to temperature in the Micromonas genus makes this environmental factor an ideal marker to describe its global distribution and diversity. We then propose a diversity model for the genus Micromonas, which proves to be representative of the whole phytoplankton diversity. This prominent primary producer is therefore a sentinel organism of phytoplankton diversity at the global scale. We use the diversity within Micromonas to anticipate the potential impact of global warming on oceanic phytoplankton. We develop a dynamic, adaptive model and run forecast simulations, exploring a range of adaptation time scales, to probe the likely responses to climate change. Results stress how biodiversity erosion depends on the ability of organisms to adapt rapidly to temperature increase.

The COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated a global crisis, with more than 690,000 confirmed cases and more than 33,000 confirmed deaths globally as of March 30, 2020 [1-4]. At present two central public health control strategies have emerged: mitigation and suppression (e.g, [5]). Both strategies focus on reducing new infections by reducing interactions (and both raise questions of sustainability and long-term tactics). Complementary to those approaches, here we develop and analyze an epidemiological intervention model that leverages serological tests [6,7] to identify and deploy recovered individuals as focal points for sustaining safer interactions via interaction substitution, i.e., to develop what we term 'shield immunity' at the population scale. Recovered individuals, in the present context, represent those who have developed protective, antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and are no longer shedding virus [8]. The objective of a shield immunity strategy is to help sustain the interactions necessary for the functioning of essential goods and services (including but not limited to tending to the elderly [9], hospital care, schools, and food supply) while decreasing the probability of transmission during such essential interactions. We show that a shield immunity approach may significantly reduce the length and reduce the overall burden of an outbreak, and can work synergistically with social distancing. The present model highlights the value of serological testing as part of intervention strategies, in addition to its well recognized roles in estimating prevalence [10,11] and in the potential development of plasma-based therapies [12][13][14][15].In the absence of reliable pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV-2, multiple public health strategies are being deployed to slow the coronavirus pandemic [1,5,16]. These strategies can be broadly grouped into two approaches: mitigation; and suppression. Mitigation includes a combination of social distancing (including school and university closures), case testing, and symptomatic case isolation to reduce epidemic spread and burden on hospitals. Mitigation is intended to lessen an outbreak, however the level of disease may still overwhelm health services [5]. Instead, some jurisdictions have either pre-emptively or reactively adopted a combination of travel restrictions (shown to be effective in curtailing dispersion if implemented early enough [17,18]) and suppression: imposing complete shut-downs of the bulk of non-essential services for extended periods (e.g., sheltering in place). Suppression has led to marked decreases in prevalence in the short term by combining case isolation, quarantine, use of separate facilities for treating COVID- * Electronic address: jsweitz@gatech.edu; URL: http: //ecotheory.biology.gatech.edu 19 patients, and large-scale viral testing to reduce transmission. Suppression also comes with significant costs, threatening social order and socio-economic health.Here, we propose a complementary intervention approach that is intended to reduce transmi...

Summary The wide latitudinal distribution of marine Synechococcus cyanobacteria partly relies on the differentiation of lineages adapted to distinct thermal environments. Membranes are highly thermosensitive cell components, and the ability to modulate their fluidity can be critical for the fitness of an ecotype in a particular thermal niche. We compared the thermophysiology of Synechococcus strains representative of major temperature ecotypes in the field. We measured growth, photosynthetic capacities and membrane lipidome variations. We carried out a metagenomic analysis of stations of the Tara Oceans expedition to describe the latitudinal distribution of the lipid desaturase genes in the oceans. All strains maintained efficient photosynthetic capacities over their different temperature growth ranges. Subpolar and cold temperate strains showed enhanced capacities for lipid monodesaturation at low temperature thanks to an additional, poorly regiospecific Δ9‐desaturase. By contrast, tropical and warm temperate strains displayed moderate monodesaturation capacities but high proportions of double unsaturations in response to cold, thanks to regiospecific Δ12‐desaturases. The desaturase genes displayed specific distributions directly related to latitudinal variations in ocean surface temperature. This study highlights the critical importance of membrane fluidity modulation by desaturases in the adaptive strategies of Synechococcus cyanobacteria during the colonization of novel thermal niches.

Hydrodynamics in a high-rate production reactor for microalgae cultivation affects the light history perceived by cells. The interplay between cell movement and medium turbidity leads to a complex light pattern, whose forcing effects on photosynthesis and photoacclimation dynamics are non-trivial. Hydrodynamics of high density algal ponds mixed by a paddle wheel has been studied recently, although the focus has never been on describing its impact on photosynthetic growth efficiency. In this multidisciplinary downscaling study, we first reconstructed single cell trajectories in an open raceway using an original hydrodynamical model offering a powerful discretization of the Navier–Stokes equations tailored to systems with free surfaces. The trajectory of a particular cell was selected and the associated high-frequency light pattern was computed. This light pattern was then experimentally reproduced in an Arduino-driven computer controlled cultivation system with a low density Dunaliella salina culture. The effect on growth and pigment content was recorded for various frequencies of the light pattern, by setting different paddle wheel velocities. Results show that the frequency of this realistic signal plays a decisive role in the dynamics of photosynthesis, thus revealing an unexpected photosynthetic response compared to that recorded under the on/off signals usually used in the literature. Indeed, the light received by a single cell contains signals from low to high frequencies that nonlinearly interact with the photosynthesis process and differentially stimulate the various time scales associated with photoacclimation and energy dissipation. This study highlights the need for experiments with more realistic light stimuli to better understand microalgal growth at high cell densities. An experimental protocol is also proposed, with simple, yet more realistic, step functions for light fluctuations.

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Marine viruses interact with microbial hosts in dynamic environments shaped by variation in abiotic factors, including temperature. However, the impacts of temperature on viral infection of phytoplankton are not well understood. Here we coupled mathematical modelling with experiments to explore the effect of temperature on virus-phytoplankton interactions. Our model shows the negative consequences of high temperatures on infection and suggests a temperature-dependent threshold between viral production and degradation. Modelling long-term dynamics in environments with different average temperatures revealed the potential for long-term host-virus coexistence, epidemic free or habitat loss states. We generalised our model to variation in global sea surface temperatures corresponding to present and future seas and show that climate change may differentially influence virus-host dynamics depending on the virus-host pair. Temperaturedependent changes in the infectivity of virus particles may lead to shifts in virus-host habitats in warmer oceans, analogous to projected changes in the habitats of macro-, microorganisms and pathogens.