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Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi-arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (ENA) if tree growth is significantly curtailed by drought. Investigations of the environmental conditions that determine drought sensitivity are critically needed to accurately predict ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We matched site factors with the growth responses to drought of 10,753 trees across mesic forests of ENA, representing 24 species and 346 stands, to determine the broad-scale drivers of drought sensitivity for the dominant trees in ENA. Here we show that two factors-the timing of drought, and the atmospheric demand for water (i.e., local potential evapotranspiration; PET)-are stronger drivers of drought sensitivity than soil and stand characteristics. Drought-induced reductions in tree growth were greatest when the droughts occurred during early-season peaks in radial growth, especially for trees growing in the warmest, driest regions (i.e., highest PET). Further, mean species trait values (rooting depth and ψ ) were poor predictors of drought sensitivity, as intraspecific variation in sensitivity was equal to or greater than interspecific variation in 17 of 24 species. From a general circulation model ensemble, we find that future increases in early-season PET may exacerbate these effects, and potentially offset gains in C uptake and storage in ENA owing to other global change factors.

This paper describes relationships between tree growth indices based on ring width measurements at 1.4 m aboveground and indices derived from whole-stem analysis for red spruce (Picearubens Sarg.) in a high-elevation spruce-fir forest on Whiteface Mountain, New York. Coefficients of determination for linear regressions between mean, standardized chronologies for breast-height ring width versus whole-stem ring width and basal area increment versus annual volume increment are 0.89 and 0.93, respectively. However, substantial variability is apparent in breast-height versus whole-stem relationships for individual trees, particularly for unstandardized growth indices. Also, relationships between unstandardized growth indices exhibit temporal instability associated with individual tree maturation and stand dynamics. Nonetheless, strong relationships between mean standardized chronologies of breast-height and whole-stem growth indices validate the use of breast-height growth indices to represent year-to-year variation in mean growth performance of red spruce. A volume-equation-based procedure is described that provides better dendrochronological estimates of annual volume increment than estimates based on basal area increment alone.

The prevalence of individual-tree growth decline was determined for red spruce (Picearubens Sarg.) populations at three locations in the southern Appalachians: Mount Rogers National Recreation Area, the Black Mountains, and Great Smoky Mountain National Park. An index of annual stemwood volume increment (AVI) was computed from dendrochronological data and a site-specific DBH–height regression equation. Individual-tree AVI time series were analyzed to identify changes in 20-year periodic mean AVI and AVI trend. The proportion of red spruce that exhibited decreasing mean AVI or negative AVI trend was determined for the most recent 20-year period, and this was compared with the estimated historical prevalence of these indications of growth decline. Also, the prevalence of growth decline was compared among subpopulations that differed with regard to various tree, stand, and site characteristics. Of 263 red spruce sampled, 25% exhibited a decrease in mean AVI during the period 1967–1986, 8% exhibited a negative AVI trend without a reduction in mean AVI, and 17% exhibited a reduction in the slope of the AVI curve. The proportion of trees that exhibited decreasing or slowed growth after 1967 was substantially greater among trees growing at 1980 m than in populations at lower elevations; no relationship was found between elevation and growth decline below 1980 m. No difference was found in prevalence of growth decline between subpopulations that differed with regard to age, DBH, competitive status, stand density, slope aspect, or site exposure. The prevalence of individual-tree growth decline for the most recent 20-year period did not exceed estimated levels for historical periods of decline in the Great Smoky Mountains population.

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