Predicted increases in temperature and aridity across the boreal forest region have the potential to alter timber supply and carbon sequestration. Given the widely-observed variation in species sensitivity to climate, there is an urgent need to develop species-specific predictive models that can account for local conditions. Here, we matched the growth of 270,000 trees across a 761,100 km2 region with detailed site-level data to quantify the growth responses of the seven most common boreal tree species in Eastern Canada to changes in climate. Accounting for spatially-explicit species-specific responses, we find that while 2 °C of warming may increase overall forest productivity by 13 ± 3% (mean ± SE) in the absence of disturbance, additional warming could reverse this trend and lead to substantial declines exacerbated by reductions in water availability. Our results confirm the transitory nature of warming-induced growth benefits in the boreal forest and highlight the vulnerability of the ecosystem to excess warming and drying.

Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi-arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (ENA) if tree growth is significantly curtailed by drought. Investigations of the environmental conditions that determine drought sensitivity are critically needed to accurately predict ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We matched site factors with the growth responses to drought of 10,753 trees across mesic forests of ENA, representing 24 species and 346 stands, to determine the broad-scale drivers of drought sensitivity for the dominant trees in ENA. Here we show that two factors-the timing of drought, and the atmospheric demand for water (i.e., local potential evapotranspiration; PET)-are stronger drivers of drought sensitivity than soil and stand characteristics. Drought-induced reductions in tree growth were greatest when the droughts occurred during early-season peaks in radial growth, especially for trees growing in the warmest, driest regions (i.e., highest PET). Further, mean species trait values (rooting depth and ψ ) were poor predictors of drought sensitivity, as intraspecific variation in sensitivity was equal to or greater than interspecific variation in 17 of 24 species. From a general circulation model ensemble, we find that future increases in early-season PET may exacerbate these effects, and potentially offset gains in C uptake and storage in ENA owing to other global change factors.

High precipitation in boreal northeastern North America could help forests withstand the expected temperature-driven increase in evaporative demand, but definitive evidence is lacking. Using a network of tree-ring collections from 16,450 stands across 583,000 km(2) of boreal forests in Québec, Canada, we observe a latitudinal shift in the correlation of black spruce growth with temperature and reduced precipitation, from negative south of 49°N to largely positive to the north of that latitude. Our results suggest that the positive effect of a warmer climate on growth rates and growing season length north of 49°N outweighs the potential negative effect of lower water availability. Unlike the central and western portions of the continent's boreal forest, northeastern North America may act as a climatic refugium in a warmer climate.

Aim:The International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB) is the most comprehensive database of tree growth. To evaluate its usefulness and improve its accessibility to the broad scientific community, we aimed to: (a) quantify its biases, (b) assess how well it represents global forests, (c) develop tools to identify priority areas to improve its representativity, and d) make available the corrected database.Location: Worldwide. Time period: Contributed datasets between 1974 and 2017.Major taxa studied: Trees. Methods:We identified and corrected formatting issues in all individual datasets of the ITRDB. We then calculated the representativity of the ITRDB with respect to species, spatial coverage, climatic regions, elevations, need for data update, climatic limitations on growth, vascular plant diversity, and associated animal diversity. We combined these metrics into a global Priority Sampling Index (PSI) to highlight ways to improve ITRDB representativity. Results:Our refined dataset provides access to a network of >52 million growth data points worldwide. We found, however, that the database is dominated by trees from forests with low diversity, in semi-arid climates, coniferous species, and in western North America. Conifers represented 81% of the ITRDB and even in wellsampled areas, broadleaves were poorly represented. Our PSI stressed the need to increase the database diversity in terms of broadleaf species and identified poorly represented regions that require scientific attention. Great gains will be made by increasing research and data sharing in African, Asian, and South American forests. Main conclusions:The extensive data and coverage of the ITRDB show great promise to address macroecological questions. To achieve this, however, we have to overcome the significant gaps in the representativity of the ITRDB. A strategic and organized group effort is required, and we hope the tools and data provided here can guide the efforts to improve this invaluable database. K E Y W O R D Sbias analysis, big data, data accessibility, Dendrochronology, dendroecology, meta-analysis, tree growth, tree-ring research

Severe droughts can impart long‐lasting legacies on forest ecosystems through lagged effects that hinder tree recovery and suppress whole‐forest carbon uptake. However, the local climatic and edaphic factors that interact to affect drought legacies in temperate forests remain unknown. Here, we pair a dataset of 143 tree ring chronologies across the mesic forests of the eastern US with historical climate and local soil properties. We found legacy effects to be widespread, the magnitude of which increased markedly in diffuse porous species, sites with deep water tables, and in response to late‐season droughts (August–September). Using an ensemble of downscaled climate projections, we additionally show that our sites are projected to drastically increase in water deficit and drought frequency by the end of the century, potentially increasing the size of legacy effects by up to 65% and acting as a significant process shaping forest composition, carbon uptake and mortality.

Predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts across the temperate biome have highlighted the need to examine the extent to which forests may differ in their sensitivity to water stress. At present, a rich body of literature exists on how leaf-and stem-level physiology influence tree drought responses; however, less is known regarding the dynamic interactions that occur belowground between roots and soil physical and biological factors. Hence, there is a need to better understand how and why processes occurring belowground influence forest sensitivity to drought. Here, we review what is known about tree species' belowground strategies for dealing with drought, and how physical and biological characteristics of soils interact with rooting strategies to influence forest sensitivity to drought. Then, we highlight how a belowground perspective of drought can be used in models to reduce uncertainty in predicting the ecosystem consequences of droughts in forests. Finally, we describe the challenges and opportunities associated with managing forests under conditions of increasing drought frequency and intensity, and explain how a belowground perspective on drought may facilitate improved forest management.

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Interactions between drought and insect defoliation may dramatically alter forestfunction under novel climate and disturbance regimes, but remain poorly understood. We empirically tested two important hypotheses regarding tree responses to drought and insect defoliation: (a) trees exhibit delayed, persistent, and cumulative growth responses to these stressors; (b) physiological feedbacks in tree responses to these stressors exacerbate their impacts on tree growth. These hypotheses remain largely untested at a landscape scale, yet are critical for predicting forest function under novel future conditions, given the connection between tree growth and demographic processes such as mortality and regeneration.2. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify the ecological memory of tree growth to past water deficits and insect defoliation events, derive antecedent variables reflecting the persistent and cumulative effects of these stressors on current growth, and test for their interactive effects. The model was applied to extensive tree growth, weather, and defoliation survey data from western and eastern regions of the Canadian boreal forest impacted by recent drought and defoliation events and characterized by contrasting tree compositions, climates, and insect defoliators.3. Results revealed persistent negative tree growth responses to past water (all trees) and defoliation (host trees) stress lasting 3-6 and 10-12 years, respectively, depending on study region. Accounting for the ecological memory of tree growth to water and defoliation stress allowed for detection of interactions not previously demonstrated. Contrary to expectations, we found evidence for positive interactions among non-host trees likely due to reduced water stress following defoliation events. Regional differences in ecological memory to water stress highlight the role of climate in shaping forest responses to drought.