SummaryBackgroundAcute exposure to air pollution has been linked to myocardial infarction, but its effect on heart failure is uncertain. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the association between air pollution and acute decompensated heart failure including hospitalisation and heart failure mortality.MethodsFive databases were searched for studies investigating the association between daily increases in gaseous (carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone) and particulate (diameter <2·5 μm [PM2·5] or <10 μm [PM10]) air pollutants, and heart failure hospitalisations or heart failure mortality. We used a random-effects model to derive overall risk estimates per pollutant.FindingsOf 1146 identified articles, 195 were reviewed in-depth with 35 satisfying inclusion criteria. Heart failure hospitalisation or death was associated with increases in carbon monoxide (3·52% per 1 part per million; 95% CI 2·52–4·54), sulphur dioxide (2·36% per 10 parts per billion; 1·35–3·38), and nitrogen dioxide (1·70% per 10 parts per billion; 1·25–2·16), but not ozone (0·46% per 10 parts per billion; −0·10 to 1·02) concentrations. Increases in particulate matter concentration were associated with heart failure hospitalisation or death (PM2·5 2·12% per 10 μg/m3, 95% CI 1·42–2·82; PM10 1·63% per 10 μg/m3, 95% CI 1·20–2·07). Strongest associations were seen on the day of exposure, with more persistent effects for PM2·5. In the USA, we estimate that a mean reduction in PM2·5 of 3·9 μg/m3 would prevent 7978 heart failure hospitalisations and save a third of a billion US dollars a year.InterpretationAir pollution has a close temporal association with heart failure hospitalisation and heart failure mortality. Although more studies from developing nations are required, air pollution is a pervasive public health issue with major cardiovascular and health economic consequences, and it should remain a key target for global health policy.FundingBritish Heart Foundation.

ObjeCtive To review the evidence for the short term association between air pollution and stroke.

SummaryBackgroundSuspected acute coronary syndrome is the commonest reason for emergency admission to hospital and is a large burden on health-care resources. Strategies to identify low-risk patients suitable for immediate discharge would have major benefits.MethodsWe did a prospective cohort study of 6304 consecutively enrolled patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome presenting to four secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Scotland. We measured plasma troponin concentrations at presentation using a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay. In derivation and validation cohorts, we evaluated the negative predictive value of a range of troponin concentrations for the primary outcome of index myocardial infarction, or subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiac death at 30 days. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (number NCT01852123).Findings782 (16%) of 4870 patients in the derivation cohort had index myocardial infarction, with a further 32 (1%) re-presenting with myocardial infarction and 75 (2%) cardiac deaths at 30 days. In patients without myocardial infarction at presentation, troponin concentrations were less than 5 ng/L in 2311 (61%) of 3799 patients, with a negative predictive value of 99·6% (95% CI 99·3–99·8) for the primary outcome. The negative predictive value was consistent across groups stratified by age, sex, risk factors, and previous cardiovascular disease. In two independent validation cohorts, troponin concentrations were less than 5 ng/L in 594 (56%) of 1061 patients, with an overall negative predictive value of 99·4% (98·8–99·9). At 1 year, these patients had a lower risk of myocardial infarction and cardiac death than did those with a troponin concentration of 5 ng/L or more (0·6% vs 3·3%; adjusted hazard ratio 0·41, 95% CI 0·21–0·80; p<0·0001).InterpretationLow plasma troponin concentrations identify two-thirds of patients at very low risk of cardiac events who could be discharged from hospital. Implementation of this approach could substantially reduce hospital admissions and have major benefits for both patients and health-care providers.FundingBritish Heart Foundation and Chief Scientist Office (Scotland).

Although having little effect in men, a high sensitivity troponin assay with sex specific diagnostic thresholds may double the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in women and identify those at high risk of reinfarction and death. Whether use of sex specific diagnostic thresholds will improve outcomes and tackle inequalities in the treatment of women with suspected acute coronary syndrome requires urgent attention.

AimsHigh-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (cTnI) assays hold promise in detecting the transition from hypertrophy to heart failure in aortic stenosis. We sought to investigate the mechanism for troponin release in patients with aortic stenosis and whether plasma cTnI concentrations are associated with long-term outcome.Methods and resultsPlasma cTnI concentrations were measured in two patient cohorts using a high-sensitivity assay. First, in the Mechanism Cohort, 122 patients with aortic stenosis (median age 71, 67% male, aortic valve area 1.0 ± 0.4 cm2) underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance and echocardiography to assess left ventricular (LV) myocardial mass, function, and fibrosis. The indexed LV mass and measures of replacement fibrosis (late gadolinium enhancement) were associated with cTnI concentrations independent of age, sex, coronary artery disease, aortic stenosis severity, and diastolic function. In the separate Outcome Cohort, 131 patients originally recruited into the Scottish Aortic Stenosis and Lipid Lowering Trial, Impact of REgression (SALTIRE) study, had long-term follow-up for the occurrence of aortic valve replacement (AVR) and cardiovascular deaths. Over a median follow-up of 10.6 years (1178 patient-years), 24 patients died from a cardiovascular cause and 60 patients had an AVR. Plasma cTnI concentrations were associated with AVR or cardiovascular death HR 1.77 (95% CI, 1.22 to 2.55) independent of age, sex, systolic ejection fraction, and aortic stenosis severity.ConclusionsIn patients with aortic stenosis, plasma cTnI concentration is associated with advanced hypertrophy and replacement myocardial fibrosis as well as AVR or cardiovascular death.

BackgroundLowering the diagnostic threshold for troponin is controversial because it may disproportionately increase the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in patients without acute coronary syndrome. We assessed the impact of lowering the diagnostic threshold of troponin on the incidence, management, and outcome of patients with type 2 myocardial infarction or myocardial injury.MethodsConsecutive patients with elevated plasma troponin I concentrations (≥50 ng/L; n = 2929) were classified with type 1 (50%) myocardial infarction, type 2 myocardial infarction or myocardial injury (48%), and type 3 to 5 myocardial infarction (2%) before and after lowering the diagnostic threshold from 200 to 50 ng/L with a sensitive assay. Event-free survival from death and recurrent myocardial infarction was recorded at 1 year.ResultsLowering the threshold increased the diagnosis of type 2 myocardial infarction or myocardial injury more than type 1 myocardial infarction (672 vs 257 additional patients, P < .001). Patients with myocardial injury or type 2 myocardial infarction were at higher risk of death compared with those with type 1 myocardial infarction (37% vs 16%; relative risk [RR], 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.98-2.69) but had fewer recurrent myocardial infarctions (4% vs 12%; RR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.26-0.49). In patients with troponin concentrations 50 to 199 ng/L, lowering the diagnostic threshold was associated with increased healthcare resource use (P < .05) that reduced recurrent myocardial infarction and death for patients with type 1 myocardial infarction (31% vs 20%; RR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.41-0.99), but not type 2 myocardial infarction or myocardial injury (36% vs 33%; RR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.75-1.15).ConclusionsAfter implementation of a sensitive troponin assay, the incidence of type 2 myocardial infarction or myocardial injury disproportionately increased and is now as frequent as type 1 myocardial infarction. Outcomes of patients with type 2 myocardial infarction or myocardial injury are poor and do not seem to be modifiable after reclassification despite substantial increases in healthcare resource use.

BackgroundCardiac troponin is an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in individuals without symptoms or signs of cardiovascular disease. The mechanisms for this association are uncertain, and a role for troponin testing in the prevention of coronary heart disease has yet to be established.ObjectivesThis study sought to determine whether troponin concentration could predict coronary events, be modified by statins, and reflect response to therapy in a primary prevention population.MethodsWOSCOPS (West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study) randomized men with raised low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and no history of myocardial infarction to pravastatin 40 mg once daily or placebo for 5 years. Plasma cardiac troponin I concentration was measured with a high-sensitivity assay at baseline and at 1 year in 3,318 participants.ResultsBaseline troponin was an independent predictor of myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4 to 3.7) for the highest (≥5.2 ng/l) versus lowest (≤3.1 ng/l) quarter of troponin (p < 0.001). There was a 5-fold greater reduction in coronary events when troponin concentrations decreased by more than a quarter, rather than increased by more than a quarter, for both placebo (HR: 0.29; 95% CI: 0.12 to 0.72 vs. HR: 1.95; 95% CI: 1.09 to 3.49; p < 0.001 for trend) and pravastatin (HR: 0.23; 95% CI: 0.10 to 0.53 vs. HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 0.53 to 2.21; p < 0.001 for trend). Pravastatin reduced troponin concentration by 13% (10% to 15%; placebo adjusted, p < 0.001) and doubled the number of men whose troponin fell more than a quarter (p < 0.001), which identified them as having the lowest risk for future coronary events (1.4% over 5 years).ConclusionsTroponin concentration predicts coronary events, is reduced by statin therapy, and change at 1 year is associated with future coronary risk independent of cholesterol lowering. Serial troponin measurements have major potential to assess cardiovascular risk and monitor the impact of therapeutic interventions.

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