Introduction. The search for new tools, methods of research and forecasting of teachers’ professional challenges is conditioned by the development of the Russian education system and the tasks to develop teachers’ competencies. This article presents a research solution for predicting the professional challenges faced by teachers in the regional education system using foresight methods.Aim. The current research aims to predict the challenges of teachers’ professional activity, considering the uncertainty of the formation of their foresight competencies.Methodology and research methods. The foresight methodology was chosen as a methodological basis for predicting teachers’ professional challenges. The first experience of technological foresight presented by B. R. Martin, developed in different countries, spheres and industry systems (M. Hilbert, Y. Kishita, I. Miles, J. Othmer, C. Reimers-Hild, A. Magruk, etc.), has found its application in education (A. Havas, V. Munigala, J. Rong, Sánchez-Torres J. M., Sjodin, A. Yaver, etc.) and modern studies of professional competencies (M. Rieckmann, L. M. Andriukhina, E. F. Zeer, A. Kononyuk, L. E. Kurneshova, V. P. Smorchkova, etc.). This research is the first implementation of foresight methodology to study the education system of the Krasnoyarsk Territory. The prototype for the development of tools was the experience and materials of foresight research in Finland. In the course of the study, 241 individual interviews were conducted with the representatives of various stakeholders in the development of education – students of the pedagogical university, teachers and parents. The most active part and the largest share were teachers (77%), students – future teachers (15%) and parents (8%).Results. As a result of the study, it was found that the main challenge in the future will be the lack of competencies and skills of teachers to apply the necessary techniques and technologies. From the teachers’ point of view, the main challenge in the future will be the lack of time for the necessary changes. From the point of view of future teachers, the main challenges of teachers will be the lack of desire and motivation on the part of students and teachers, lack of finance provision, equipment, resources. From the point of view of parents, the main difficulty in the future will remain excessive bureaucratisation of the learning process. In their opinion, the lack of desire and motivation on the part of students and teachers, as well as the lack of competency of teachers to apply the necessary techniques and technologies, are the main challenges of teachers.Scientific novelty. The research is aimed at solving the issues of choosing and adapting foresight methods in conditions of uncertainty of foresight competencies of its participants. The study promotes the possibility of expanding the range of stakeholders and considers the limitations of the spread of foresight technologies in Russia. The research demonstrated the possibility of predicting the assessment of teachers’ professional challenges, which contributes to the foresight study of competencies.Practical significance. The received forecast about the professional challenges faced by teachers will provide the support to adjust the existing system of professional development of teaching staff and to lay the foundation for regional monitoring.
Introduction. The article provides an overview and examines the problem of reliability and validity of models and tools for assessing teacher shortages. The purpose of the article is to determine the capabilities of mathematical modeling tools for the system of assessing teacher shortages. Materials and Methods. The research is based on measuring students’ intentions to enter the teaching profession using mathematical modeling tools. The main methodological principle of the research is a systematic approach. Based on the data obtained from a survey of 1,797 undergraduate and postgraduate students at Krasnoyarsk State Pedagogical University named after V. P. Astafiev, the method of multiple regression analysis is used. Results. The main results are that the authors investigated the capabilities of using mathematical modeling tools to assess teacher shortages (multiple regression analysis). It was found that the decision of teacher education students to enter the teaching profession does not depend on their socio-demographic characteristics (gender, year of study, place of residence, field of study, etc.) and is directly related to the characteristics of students’ attitudes to the University, their chosen profession, and professional development. There is a direct dependence of plans to start a teaching career on the self-assessment of their choice of the university. The probability of choosing a teaching career is determined by the ideas of professional development and is directly related to ‘improving skills in the subject area’; ‘mastering meta-competencies: analyzing and reflecting on their activities, evaluating and presenting results, etc.’, ‘mastering new techniques’, ‘transferring knowledge and skills to others, sharing experience’. The authors identified the capacity of using multiple regression analysis for assessing teacher shortages. The authors found that in solving this type of problems, it is reasonable to use empirical mathematical models, which include multiple regression analysis. Conclusions. The article concludes that the mathematical model of multiple regression analysis is a tool for comprehensive assessment. The authors note that multiple regression analysis, as a method of mathematical modeling, allows evaluating the activity in the unity of all characteristics and can be used in the assessment of teacher shortages. The data obtained serve as basic indicators and are used to establish links and relationships between choosing a teacher education degree programme and the intention to pursue a teaching career. Keywords Assessment systems; Assessment tools; Mathematical modeling; Teachers shortages; Students' intentions
Objective: to identify the relationship between stress hormones and coping strategies in students in the context of the dynamically changing situation of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and Methods. The students of the pedagogical university aged 20–21 years (n=10), randomized sampling from the general population, took part in the study. The repertoire of coping strategies was studied using standardized questionnaire methods COPE and “Proactive Coping”. Catecholamines were determined in plasma by high-performance liquid chromatography, Glucocorticoids – by chemiluminescence immunoassay on microparticles. Dynamics of indicators and their correlation were considered on the example of two periods of change of the COVID-19 pandemic situation. Results. Analysis of stress hormone indicators at two stages of the study suggests that students adapted to the dynamically changing situation of the second year of the pandemic. Restrictive measures lead to a decrease in dopamine (p<0,05), which correlates with the strategies of coping with stress chosen by students. Study of the relationship in different ways allowed to identify the correlation of stress hormones with emotion-oriented coping and avoidance of a stressful situation. Conclusion. The results confirm the mediating role of stress hormones in students’ choice of coping strategies in the dynamically changing situation of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Introduction. The article addresses the problem of assessing teachers’ professional deficiencies. The purpose of the research is to identify the essential factors determining the connection between teachers’ professional deficiencies and learning outcomes of schoolchildren. Materials and Methods. In order to study the relationship between teachers’ professional deficiencies and schoolchildren’s learning outcomes, the authors have developed a model of teachers’ professional deficiencies and followed a comprehensive research approach. The sample consisted of 3375 teachers who were interviewed. The authors analyzed the results of National Examinations (the Unified State Exams) of higher educational institutions applicants from 50 municipalities of the region. The method of factor analysis revealed a stable system of latent properties of teachers’ professional deficiencies affecting learning outcomes. The materials and methods that formed the basis of this study were obtained with the support of Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund for the Support of Research and Scientific-Technical Activities within the framework of the project “Comprehensive study of professional shortcomings and difficulties of teachers of the Krasnoyarsk Territory”. Results. The research findings consist in the developed system of factors obtained by indirect measurements. The content structure and characteristics of teachers’ professional deficiencies determining teaching effectiveness are revealed. It has been established that the selected groups of factors have a specific representation in each subject area. The results of teaching students in various subjects depend on the specifics of teachers’ professional deficiencies. The identified set of factors in the subject areas of “Mathematics”, “Literature”, “History”, “English” has a complex structure of the selected properties and is more diverse than in “Russian”, “Social Studies” and “Biology”. It is established that the theoretical model of teachers’ professional deficits has its own subject expression. Conclusions. Conclusions are drawn about the stability of the identified system of latent properties of teachers’ professional deficiencies, on which the results of schoolchildren's education depend. The authors emphasize that the established connection between teachers’ professional deficiencies and the results of schoolchildren's education contributes to the development of professional development programs and can become the main work of professional development centers for educators.
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