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SUMMARY. Morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are increasing in many countries as the infected population ages. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viremic population, as well as estimate the number of new infections and HCV related deaths from 2013 to 2030. Expert consensus was used to determine current treatment levels and outcomes in each country. In most countries, viremic prevalence has already peaked. In every country studied, prevalence begins to decline before 2030, when current treatment levels were held constant. In contrast, cases of advanced liver disease and liver related deaths will continue to increase through 2030 in most countries. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

SUMMARY. Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of liver related morbidity and mortality. In many countries, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological data that are crucial in implementing disease control measures as new treatment options become available. Published literature, unpublished data and expert consensus were used to determine key parameters, including prevalence, viremia, genotype and the number of patients diagnosed and treated. In this study of 15 countries, viremic prevalence ranged from 0.13% in the Netherlands to 2.91% in Russia. The largest viremic populations were in India (8 666 000 cases) and Russia (4 162 000 cases). In most countries, males had a higher rate of infections, likely due to higher rates of injection drug use (IDU). Estimates characterizing the infected population are critical to focus screening and treatment efforts as new therapeutic options become available.

SUMMARY. The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 15 countries, and the relative impact of two scenarios was considered: (i) increased treatment efficacy while holding the treated population constant and (ii) increased treatment efficacy and increased annual treated population. Increasing levels of diagnosis and treatment, in combination with improved treatment efficacy, were critical for achieving substantial reductions in disease burden. In most countries, the annual treated population had to increase several fold to achieve the largest reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality. This suggests that increased capacity for screening and treatment will be critical in many countries. Birth cohort screening is a helpful tool for maximizing resources. In most of the studied countries, the majority of patients were born between 1945 and 1985.

BackgroundProvider-initiated HIV testing and counselling (PITC) is promoted as a means to increase HIV case finding. We assessed the effectiveness of PITC to increase HIV testing rate and HIV case finding among outpatients in Rwandan health facilities (HF).MethodsPITC was introduced in six HFs in 2009-2010. HIV testing rate and case finding were compared between phase 1 (pre-PITC) and phase 3 (PITC period) for outpatient-department (OPD) attendees only, and for OPD and voluntary counseling & testing (VCT) departments combined.ResultsOut of 26,367 adult OPD attendees in phase 1, 4.7 % were tested and out of 29,864 attendees in phase 3, 17.0 % were tested (p < 0.001). The proportion of HIV cases diagnosed was 0.25 % (67/26,367) in phase 1 and 0.46 % (136/29864) in phase 3 (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, both testing rate and case finding were significantly higher in phase 3 for OPD attendees. In phase 1 most of the HIV testing was done in VCT departments rather than at the OPD (78.6 % vs 21.4 % respectively); in phase 3 this was reversed (40.0 % vs 60.0 %; p < 0.001). In a combined analysis of VCT and OPD attendees, testing rate increased from 18.7 % in phase 1 to 25.4 % in phase 3, but case finding did not increase. In multivariable analysis, testing rate was significantly higher in phase 3 (OR 1.67; 95 % CI 1.60-1.73), but case finding remained stable (OR 1.09; 95 % CI 0.93-1.27).ConclusionPITC led to a shift of HIV testing from VCT department to the OPD, a higher testing rate, but no additional HIV case finding.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1355-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.