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Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0654-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Anthropogenically induced changes in precipitation are projected to generate increased river runoff to semi-enclosed seas, increasing loads of terrestrial dissolved organic matter and decreasing salinity. To determine how bacterial community structure and functioning adjust to such changes, we designed microcosm transplant experiments with Baltic Proper (salinity 7.2) and Bothnian Sea (salinity 3.6) water. Baltic Proper bacteria generally reached higher abundances than Bothnian Sea bacteria in both Baltic Proper and Bothnian Sea water, indicating higher adaptability. Moreover, Baltic Proper bacteria growing in Bothnian Sea water consistently showed highest bacterial production and beta-glucosidase activity. These metabolic responses were accompanied by basin-specific changes in bacterial community structure. For example, Baltic Proper Pseudomonas and Limnobacter populations increased markedly in relative abundance in Bothnian Sea water, indicating a replacement effect. In contrast, Roseobacter and Rheinheimera populations were stable or increased in abundance when challenged by either of the waters, indicating an adjustment effect. Transplants to Bothnian Sea water triggered the initial emergence of particular Burkholderiaceae populations, and transplants to Baltic Proper water triggered Alteromonadaceae populations. Notably, in the subsequent re-transplant experiment, a priming effect resulted in further increases to dominance of these populations. Correlated changes in community composition and metabolic activity were observed only in the transplant experiment and only at relatively high phylogenetic resolution. This suggested an importance of successional progression for interpreting relationships between bacterial community composition and functioning. We infer that priming effects on bacterial community structure by natural episodic events or climate change induced forcing could translate into long-term changes in bacterial ecosystem process rates.

Heterotrophic bacteria are, in many aquatic systems, reliant on autochthonous organic carbon as their energy source. One exception is low-productive humic lakes, where allochthonous dissolved organic matter (ADOM) is the major driver. We hypothesized that bacterial production (BP) is similarly regulated in subarctic estuaries that receive large amounts of riverine material. BP and potential explanatory factors were measured during May–August 2011 in the subarctic Råne Estuary, northern Sweden. The highest BP was observed in spring, concomitant with the spring river-flush and the lowest rates occurred during summer when primary production (PP) peaked. PLS correlations showed that ∼60 % of the BP variation was explained by different ADOM components, measured as humic substances, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM). On average, BP was threefold higher than PP. The bioavailability of allochthonous dissolved organic carbon (ADOC) exhibited large spatial and temporal variation; however, the average value was low, ∼2 %. Bioassay analysis showed that BP in the near-shore area was potentially carbon limited early in the season, while BP at seaward stations was more commonly limited by nitrogen-phosphorus. Nevertheless, the bioassay indicated that ADOC could contribute significantly to the in situ BP, ∼60 %. We conclude that ADOM is a regulator of BP in the studied estuary. Thus, projected climate-induced increases in river discharge suggest that BP will increase in subarctic coastal areas during the coming century.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00248-015-0714-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and can be strongly influenced by climate change, anthropogenic activities (e.g., pollution), and a combination of the two pressures. As a result of climate change, the northern hemisphere is predicted to undergo an increased precipitation regime, leading in turn to higher terrestrial runoff and increased river inflow. This increased runoff will transfer terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) and anthropogenic contaminants to coastal waters. Such changes can directly influence the resident biology, particularly at the base of the food web, and can influence the partitioning of contaminants and thus their potential impact on the food web. Bacteria have been shown to respond to high tDOM concentration and organic pollutants loads, and could represent the entry of some pollutants into coastal food webs. We carried out a mesocosm experiment to determine the effects of: (1) increased tDOM concentration, (2) organic pollutant exposure, and (3) the combined effect of these two factors, on pelagic bacterial communities. This study showed significant responses in bacterial community composition under the three environmental perturbations tested. The addition of tDOM increased bacterial activity and diversity, while the addition of organic pollutants led to an overall reduction of these parameters, particularly under concurrent elevated tDOM concentration. Furthermore, we identified 33 bacterial taxa contributing to the significant differences observed in community composition, as well as 35 bacterial taxa which responded differently to extended exposure to organic pollutants. These findings point to the potential impact of organic pollutants under future climate change conditions on the basal coastal ecosystem, as well as to the potential utility of natural bacterial communities as efficient indicators of environmental disturbance.

Major differences in dissolved organic matter characteristics and bacterial processing over an extensive brackish water gradient,