Climate change is causing the warming and deoxygenation of coastal habitats like Chesapeake Bay that serve as important nursery habitats for many marine fish species. As conditions continue to change, it is important to understand how these changes impact individual species’ behavioral and metabolic performance. The sandbar shark (Carcharhinus plumbeus) is an obligate ram-ventilating apex predator whose juveniles use Chesapeake Bay as a nursery ground up to 10 years of age. The objective of this study was to measure juvenile sandbar shark metabolic and behavioral performance as a proxy for overall performance (i.e. fitness or success) when exposed to warm and hypoxic water. Juvenile sandbar sharks (79.5–113.5 cm total length) were collected from an estuary along the eastern shore of Virginia and returned to lab where they were fitted with an accelerometer, placed in a respirometer and exposed to varying temperatures and oxygen levels. Juvenile sandbar shark overall performance declined substantially at 32°C or when dissolved oxygen concentration was reduced below 3.5 mg l−1 (51% oxygen saturation between 24–32°C). As the extent of warm hypoxic water increases in Chesapeake Bay, we expect that the available sandbar shark nursery habitat will be reduced, which may negatively impact the population of sandbar sharks in the western Atlantic as well as the overall health of the ecosystem within Chesapeake Bay.

Understanding how rising temperatures, ocean acidification, and hypoxia affect the performance of coastal fishes is essential to predicting species-specific responses to climate change. Although a population’s habitat influences physiological performance, little work has explicitly examined the multi-stressor responses of species from habitats differing in natural variability. Here, clearnose skate (Rostaraja eglanteria) and summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) from mid-Atlantic estuaries, and thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata) from the Gulf of Maine, were acutely exposed to current and projected temperatures (20, 24, or 28 °C; 22 or 30 °C; and 9, 13, or 15 °C, respectively) and acidification conditions (pH 7.8 or 7.4). We tested metabolic rates and hypoxia tolerance using intermittent-flow respirometry. All three species exhibited increases in standard metabolic rate under an 8 °C temperature increase (Q10 of 1.71, 1.07, and 2.56, respectively), although this was most pronounced in the thorny skate. At the lowest test temperature and under the low pH treatment, all three species exhibited significant increases in standard metabolic rate (44–105%; p < 0.05) and decreases in hypoxia tolerance (60–84% increases in critical oxygen pressure; p < 0.05). This study demonstrates the interactive effects of increasing temperature and changing ocean carbonate chemistry are species-specific, the implications of which should be considered within the context of habitat.

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States in the Northeast United States have the ambitious goal of producing more than 22 GW of offshore wind energy in the coming decades. The infrastructure associated with offshore wind energy development is expected to modify marine habitats and potentially alter the ecosystem services. Species distribution models were constructed for a group of fish and macroinvertebrate taxa resident in the Northeast US Continental Shelf marine ecosystem. These models were analyzed to provide baseline context for impact assessment of lease areas in the Middle Atlantic Bight designated for renewable wind energy installations. Using random forest machine learning, models based on occurrence and biomass were constructed for 93 species providing seasonal depictions of their habitat distributions. We developed a scoring index to characterize lease area habitat use for each species. Subsequently, groups of species were identified that reflect varying levels of lease area habitat use ranging across high, moderate, low, and no reliance on the lease area habitats. Among the species with high to moderate reliance were black sea bass (Centropristis striata), summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus), and Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), which are important fisheries species in the region. Potential for impact was characterized by the number of species with habitat dependencies associated with lease areas and these varied with a number of continuous gradients. Habitats that support high biomass were distributed more to the northeast, while high occupancy habitats appeared to be further from the coast. There was no obvious effect of the size of the lease area on the importance of associated habitats. Model results indicated that physical drivers and lower trophic level indicators might strongly control the habitat distribution of ecologically and commercially important species in the wind lease areas. Therefore, physical and biological oceanography on the continental shelf proximate to wind energy infrastructure development should be monitored for changes in water column structure and the productivity of phytoplankton and zooplankton and the effects of these changes on the trophic system.

Nursery area habitats such as estuaries are vital for the success of many fish populations. Climate change is altering conditions in these areas, which can thus impact the availability of suitable nursery habitat. The sandbar shark Carcharhinus plumbeus uses Chesapeake Bay (USA) as a nursery habitat during the summer months from birth up to 10 yr of age. To assess the impacts of climate change on juvenile sandbar sharks, we developed a habitat model using longline data collected from a fishery-independent survey within Chesapeake Bay. With this model, we projected contemporary and future distributions of suitable habitat for juvenile sandbar sharks in Chesapeake Bay under varying environmental regimes. Predicted suitable juvenile sandbar shark habitat was negatively impacted by future increases in temperature, but positively influenced by future decreases in dissolved oxygen. The latter trend was likely related to the habitat partitioning that occurs between different life stages. Changes in salinity had relatively small impacts. By end-of-century the projected amount of suitable bottom habitat decreased; however, when incorporating the entire water column, projected suitable habitat increased. This suggests that juvenile sandbar sharks may need to make a behavioral shift to avoid non-preferred conditions, which could alter their foraging ecology or refuge strategies. As nursery habitats change with climate change, it is crucial to understand how a species may be impacted during this vital life stage when trying to predict overall species success in the future.

Cobia (Rachycentron canadum) support recreational fisheries along the US mid-and south-Atlantic states and have been recently subjected to increased fishing effort, primarily during their spawning season in coastal habitats where increasing temperatures and expanding hypoxic zones are occurring due to climate change. We therefore undertook a study to quantify the physiological abilities of cobia to withstand increases in temperature and hypoxia, including their ability to recover from exhaustive exercise. Respirometry was conducted on cobia from Chesapeake Bay to determine aerobic scope, critical oxygen saturation, ventilation volume and the time to recover from exhaustive exercise under temperature and oxygen conditions projected to be more common in inshore areas by the middle and end of this century. Cobia physiologically tolerated predicted mid-and end-of-century temperatures (28-32°C) and oxygen concentrations as low as 1.7-2.4 mg l −1 . Our results indicated cobia can withstand environmental fluctuations that occur in coastal habitats and the broad environmental conditions their prey items can tolerate. However, at these high temperatures, some cobia did suffer post-exercise mortality. It appears cobia will be able to withstand near-future climate impacts in coastal habitats like Chesapeake Bay, but as conditions worsen, catch-and-release fishing may result in higher mortality than under present conditions.

AimClimate change has influenced the distribution and phenology of marine species, globally. However, knowledge of the impacts of climate change is lacking for many species that support valuable recreational fisheries. Cobia (Rachycentron canadum) are the target of an important recreational fishery along the U.S. east coast that is currently the subject of a management controversy regarding allocation and stock structure. Further, the current and probable future distributions of this migratory species are unclear, further complicating decision‐making. The objectives of this study are to better define the contemporary distribution of cobia along the U.S. east coast and to project potential shifts in distribution and phenology under future climate change scenarios.LocationChesapeake Bay and the U.S. east coast.MethodsWe developed a depth‐integrated habitat suitability model using archival tagging data from cobia that were caught and tagged in Chesapeake Bay during summer months and coupled those data with high‐resolution ocean models to project the contemporary and future distributions of cobia along U.S. east coast.ResultsDuring the winter months, suitable cobia habitat currently occurs in offshore waters off North Carolina and further south, whereas during the summer months, suitable habitat occurs in waters from Florida to southern New England. In warmer years, the availability of suitable habitat increases in northern latitudes. Under continued climate change over the next 40–80 years, suitable habitat is projected to shift northward and decrease over the shelf.Main conclusionsHabitat distributions suggest cobia overwinter offshore and could inhabit waters further north during warmer months, into state jurisdictions that do not have strict management regulations for cobia. When waters are warmer, distributions are projected to shift poleward and seasonal migrations may begin earlier. These results can inform resource allocation discussions between fishery managers and resource users.