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[1] The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA-ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CMEs, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L 1 Lagrangian point and the maximum K p indices due to the impact of the CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere. The Newell et al. (2007) K p index formula was employed to calculate the maximum K p indices based on the predicted solar wind parameters near Earth assuming two magnetic field orientations: a completely southward magnetic field and a uniformly distributed clock-angle in the Newell et al. (2007) K p index formula. The forecasts for 5 of the 15 events had accuracy such that the actual propagation time was within the ensemble average plus or minus one standard deviation. Using the completely southward magnetic field assumption, 10 of the 15 events contained the actual maximum K p index within the range of the ensemble forecast, compared to 9 of the 15 events when using a uniformly distributed clock angle.

Sporadic-E (Es) occurrence rates from Global Position Satellite radio occultation (GPS-RO) measurements have shown to vary by a factor of five between studies, motivating the need for a comparison with ground-based measurements. In an attempt to find accurate GPS-RO techniques for detecting Es formation, occurrence rates derived using five previously developed GPS-RO techniques are compared to ionosonde measurements over an eight-year period from 2010–2017. GPS-RO measurements within 170 km of a ionosonde site are used to calculate Es occurrence rates and compared to the ground-truth ionosonde measurements. The techniques are compared individually for each ionosonde site and then combined to determine the most accurate GPS-RO technique for two thresholds on sporadic-E intensity: no lower limit and fbEs ≥3 MHz. Overall, the YuS4 method shows the closest agreement with ionosonde measurements for total Es occurrence rates without a lower limit on intensity, while the phase-based Chu technique shows the closest agreement for fbEs ≥3 MHz. This analysis demonstrates that the variation in GPS-RO derived sporadic-E occurrence rates is due to varying thresholds on the sporadic-E intensities in terms of fbEs.

A global climatology of sporadic-E occurrence rates (ORs) based on ionosonde measurements is presented for the peak blanketing frequency, fbEs, and the ordinary mode peak frequency of the layer, foEs. ORs are calculated for a variety of sporadic-E frequency thresholds: no lower limit, 3, 5, and 7 MHz. Seasonal rates are calculated from 64 Digisonde sites during the period 2006–2020 using ionograms either manually or automatically scaled with ARTIST-5. Both foEs and fbEs ORs peak in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, with a decrease by roughly a factor of 2–3 in fbEs rates relative to foEs rates without a lower threshold on the sporadic-E intensity. This ratio of foEs to fbEs OR increases with increasing sporadic-E intensity, up to a factor of 5 for the 7 MHz threshold. An asymmetry is observed with the Southern Hemisphere peaks during the austral summer, with slightly lower rates compared with the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer. A drastic decrease in ORs is observed for the higher intensity thresholds, such that the fbEs occurrence rates for 7 MHz are nearly zero during most locations and seasons. These updated occurrence rates can be used for future statistical comparisons with GPS radio occultation-based sporadic-E occurrence rates.