We look at the effect of evidence and prior beliefs on exploration, explanation and learning. In Experiment 1, we tested children both with and without differential prior beliefs about balance relationships (Center Theorists, mean: 82 months; Mass Theorists, mean: 89 months; No Theory children, mean: 62 months). Center and Mass Theory children who observed identical evidence explored the block differently depending on their beliefs. When the block was balanced at its geometric center (belief-violating to a Mass Theorist, but belief-consistent to a Center Theorist), Mass Theory children explored the block more, and Center Theory children showed the standard novelty preference; when the block was balanced at the center of mass, the pattern of results reversed. TheNo Theory children showed a novelty preference regardless of evidence. In Experiments 2 and 3, we follow-up on these findings, showing that both Mass and Center Theorists selectively and differentially appeal to auxiliary variables (e.g., a magnet) to explain evidence only when their beliefs are violated. We also show that children use the data to revise their predictions in the absence of the explanatory auxiliary variable but not in its presence. Taken together, these results suggest that children's learning is at once conservative and flexible; children integrate evidence, prior beliefs, and competing causal hypotheses in their exploration, explanation, and learning.
This study explores the underlying factors that enable firms from developing countries to successfully export differentiated goods to developed countries. The article describes four case studies of export emergence in differentiated-good sectors in Argentina, namely wine, television programs, motorboats, and wooden furniture. The case studies rely primarily on an extensive set of interviews. We find that consistent exporters to developed countries adopt a new set of business practices that differ starkly from those that prevail in their domestic market. In three of the sectors, an export pioneer led the adoption of these new practices. Export pioneers possessed tacit knowledge about foreign markets, achieved through their previous embeddedness in the business community of those markets. Export emergence occurs as business practices diffuse throughout the sector. These findings point to the importance of foreign market knowledge, relative to production knowledge, as the key constraint to achieve consistent export to developed countries.
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract * This paper surveys four Argentinean industries-light ships, television programs, wines, and wooden furniture-that have experienced substantial export growth in recent years, particularly to developed countries. The case studies first describe the structure of the industries, then characterize the emergence of export pioneers and the subsequent process of diffusion. Finally, they analyze the role played by public institutions. Across sectors, the appearance of a pioneer is largely explained by a knowledge advantage relative to other industry participants regarding foreign markets, which the pioneer acquired previously and independently of his decision to export. Diffusion occurs across as well as within sectors, as pioneers' knowledge is relevant to other industries. Since diffusion does not necessarily hurt the pioneer, public policy has a potentially important role in fostering diffusion within and across sectors.
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Documents inJEL Classifications: L62, L66, L68, L82
This paper builds a conceptual framework to explain the obstacles that prevent Argentine producers of differentiated products from establishing a consistent presence in the developed world. We build our framework based on four case studies of sectoral export emergence in Argentina. We find that exporting consistently to developed countries requires drastic changes in how business is conceived and conducted relative to the practices that prevail among domestically-oriented firms. An export pioneer is the first to implement the required changes based on a knowledge advantage acquired due to his embeddedness in the business community of his industry in a developed country.We would like to thank
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