The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over
The sensitivity of numerical simulations of the low level jet stream (LLJS) in South America to the choice of parameterization schemes for the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and for cumulus convection using the Advanced Research core of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model was assessed for two cases in which the development of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) was observed in the La Plata Basin at the exit of the LLJS. The MCSs developed under distinct synoptic forcing. Overall, the general area over the La Plata Basin where the wind profiles met LLJS criteria was larger in the situation with stronger frontal forcing. Regarding the impact of the choice of the PBL parameterization scheme upon the simulated LLJS, the nonlocal Yonsei University (YSU) scheme displayed slightly better results for most simulations regardless of the cumulus parameterization scheme utilized. In fact, the characterization of the LLJS in the simulations exhibited no significant sensitivity to the choice of the cumulus parameterization. In situations under stronger [weaker] frontal forcing, less [more] dispersion among the simulations was found regarding the identification of the LLJS.
Abstract. At 00:00 UTC of 24 January 2009 (24Jan09) an explosive cyclogenesis placed at the Gulf of Vizcaya, reached its maximum intensity with observed surface pressures below 970 hPa on its center. During its path through the south of France there were strong westerly and northwesterly winds over Iberian Peninsula (above 150 km/h). These extreme winds leaved 8 casualties in Catalunya, the north-east region of Spain.The aim of this work is validating the skill of the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (SREPS) in forecasting this event. Two probabilistic forecasts of wind are compared, a noncalibrated (or raw) and a calibrated one using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA).AEMET runs a daily experimental SREPS twice a day (00:00 and 12:00 UTC). This system consists on 25 members that are constructed by integrating five different Limited Area Models (LAMs) at 0.25 degrees of horizontal resolution. Each model uses five different initial and boundary conditions from five Global Models (GMs). Thus it is obtained a probabilistic forecast that takes into account initial, contour and model uncertainties.BMA is a statistical tool for combining predictive Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) from different sources. BMA predictive PDF is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias-corrected forecasts. Each weight is a measure of the corresponding forecast skill. Here BMA is applied to calibrate probabilistic forecasts of wind speed.In this work two time forecast ranges (H+60 and H+36) of 10-m wind speed over Catalonia are verified subjectively at 12:00 UTC of 24Jan09 valid time. We focus on the location Correspondence to: P. Escribà (pescribaa@aemet.es) and intensity of 10-m wind speed maximum values. Observations at 29 automatic ground stations of AEMET are used for the verification.On one hand results indicate that raw AEMET-SREPS is able to forecast 60 h ahead mean winds higher than 36 and 54 km/h and that it correctly locates them in three different areas. On the other hand, predicted probability loses its skill after BMA calibration of the ensemble. This is due to the fact that BMA bias correction underestimates the intensity of wind.
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