Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Marengo, José A.; Ambrizzi, Tércio; Rocha, Rosmeri Porfírio da; Alves, Lincoln M.; Cuadra, Santiago Vianna; Valverde, María Cleofé; Torres, Roger Rodrigues; Santos, Daniel Caetano; Ferraz, Simone Erotildes Teleginski

doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0721-6

Cited by 229 publications

(219 citation statements)

References 53 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

159

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Although it is expected that atmospheric warming will cause an upward shift in this lowest elevation boundary (Haeberli et al 1993;Janke 2005;Bonnaventure and Lewkowicz 2011), the coarse spatial resolution of current Global Climate Models (GCMs) does not permit a precise understanding of likely changes to future permafrost extent at the regional level, thereby preventing water resource managers adapting their policies to climate change (Hijmans et al 2005;Buytaert et al 2010). Downscaling these climate projections to an appropriate spatial resolution is therefore a necessary first step towards understanding climatic impacts of future global warming on permafrost water stores at the regional scale (Marengo et al 2010), after which appropriate adaptation policies can be formulated.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Water resources in many of the world's arid mountain ranges are threatened by climate change, and in parts of the South American Andes this is exacerbated by glacier recession and population growth. Alternative sources of water, such as more resilient permafrost features (e.g. rock glaciers), are expected to become increasingly important as current warming continues. Assessments of current and future permafrost extent under climate change are not available for the Southern Hemisphere, yet are required to inform decision making over future water supply and climate change adaptation strategies. Here, downscaled model outputs were used to calculate the projected changes in permafrost extent for a first-order assessment of an example region, the Bolivian Andes. Using the 0°C mean annual air temperature as a proxy for permafrost extent, these projections show that permafrost areas will shrink from present day extent by up to 95 % under warming projected for the 2050s and by 99 % for the 2080s (under the IPCC A1B scenario, given equilibrium conditions). Using active rock glaciers as a proxy for the lower limit of permafrost extent, we also estimate that projected temperature changes would drive a near total loss of currently active rock glaciers in this region by the end of the century. In conjunction with glacier recession, a loss of permafrost extent of this magnitude represents a water security problem for the latter part of the 21st century, and it is likely that this will have negative effects on one of South America's fastest growing cities (La Paz), with similar implications for other arid mountain regions.

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Changes in precipitation projected for the end of this century are less robust than for temperature, with a higher degree of variability among the regional climate models (Marengo et al, 2010). Having this uncertainty in mind, the main projected changes are an increase in the annual temperature over the southeastern region of Brazil, coupled with a decrease in rainfall during the austral winter months (June -August), followed by an increase in extreme events of precipitation during the austral summer months (December -February) (Marengo et al, 2009).…”

Section: Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On the Carbon And Nitrogmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Using regional climate models, Marengo et al (2009Marengo et al ( , 2010 made projections for a IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100 for South America and sub-regions of Brazil. As most of our data on carbon and nitrogen cycles of the Atlantic Forest focus on the southeast region of Brazil, we focused on the effects climate changes on this region to address potential changes in the functioning of the Atlantic Forest.…”

Section: Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On the Carbon And Nitrogmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The most ubiquitous climate change projected by three regional climate models used by Marengo et al (2010) was an increase of temperature throughout the country at the end of this century. Changes in precipitation projected for the end of this century are less robust than for temperature, with a higher degree of variability among the regional climate models (Marengo et al, 2010).…”

Section: Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On the Carbon And Nitrogmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Carbon and nitrogen stock and fluxes in coastal Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil: potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning

et al. 2012

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most important biomes of Brazil. Originally covering approximately 1.5 million of km 2 , today this area has been reduced to 12% of its original size. Climate changes may alter the structure and the functioning of this tropical forest. Here we explore how increases in temperature and changes in precipitation distribution could affect dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in coastal Atlantic Forest of the southeast region of Brazil The main conclusion of this article is that the coastal Atlantic Forest has high stocks of carbon and nitrogen above ground, and especially, below ground. An increase in temperature may transform these forests from important carbon sinks to carbon sources by increasing loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. However, this conclusion should be viewed with caution because it is based on limited information. Therefore, more studies are urgently needed to enable us to make more accurate predictions.Keywords: Atlantic Forest, biogeochemistry, carbon, climatic changes, nitrogen, topography. Estoques e fluxos de carbono e nitrogênio nas zonas costeiras da Mata Atlântica do sudeste do Brasil: potenciais impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre o funcionamento biogeoquímico ResumoA Mata Atlântica é um dos mais importantes biomas do Brasil. Sua cobertura original estendia-se por aproximadamente 1,5 milhão de km 2 . Atualmente, sua área ocupa somente 12% de sua cobertura original. As mudanças climáticas podem alterar a estrutura e o funcionamento dessa floresta tropical. Neste artigo, discute-se como aumentos na temperatura do ar e mudanças na distribuição das chuvas podem afetar a dinâmica do carbono e do nitrogênio na Mata Atlântica litorânea da Região Sudeste brasileira, cuja disponibilidade de informações é maior. A principal conclusão deste artigo é que essas florestas detêm elevados estoques de carbono e nitrogênio acima do solo e, especialmente, abaixo do solo. Um aumento na temperatura do ar pode transformar essas florestas de sumidouros para fontes de carbono para a atmosfera por meio de um aumento nos processos de decomposição. Entretanto, essas conclusões devem ser vistas com cautela já que estão baseadas em um número limitado de informações. Portanto, é urgente que um número maior de informações seja produzido, permitindo conclusões mais robustas no futuro.Palavras-chave: biogeoquímica, carbono, Mata Atlântica, mudanças climáticas, nitrogênio, topografia.

show abstract

“…During the 20th century temperature have consistently risen within the basin and precipitation regime has become unstable as events more humid than normal as well as events dryer than normal have increased in the course of this century (Marengo et al, 2010a). The scientific community has actually identified a series of potential consequences that are going to follow climate change in South America, which includes the salinization and desertification of agriculture land, the savanization of forested areas and a reduced availability of water (IPCC, 2007, Marengo et al, 2010b2011). Over the next century it is li ely that temperature will rise from to C. Models results for rainfall do not converge: they vary from -15 to +15 % with respect to present.…”

Section: [Fig 1 About Here]mentioning

confidence: 99%

Institutional responses to climate change: opportunities and barriers for adaptation in the Pantanal and the Upper Paraguay River Basin

Ioris¹,

Irigaray²,

Girard³

2014

Climatic Change

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climatic change is expected to have serious impacts on the Pantanal, a large tropical wetland located in the Upper Paraguay River Basin, in the centre of South America, where a range of institutional responses are being developed to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In order to examine the institutional achievements and challenges for managing the region, a specific typology is initially introduced, which comprises a schematic gradient of institutional responses. An empirical analysis was conducted in Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay, the three countries that share the Pantanal, which identified the hybrid basis of the policy framework under construction, in the sense that it actually combines elements of various institutional responses included in the proposed typology. Important factors that seem to undermine the efficacy of institutional responses in addressing climate change in the region are the strong influence of the agribusiness sector and the still relatively low importance of the Pantanal for national environmental policy-making. This essay makes a claim that the principles of climate justice should guiding policies and interventions as it they constitute the most appropriate strategy to address the inequality and unfairness related to climate change.

show abstract

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Cited by 229 publications

References 53 publications

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

Carbon and nitrogen stock and fluxes in coastal Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil: potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning

Institutional responses to climate change: opportunities and barriers for adaptation in the Pantanal and the Upper Paraguay River Basin

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About