Ground ice is abundant in the upper permafrost throughout the Arctic and fundamentally affects terrain responses to climate warming. Ice wedges, which form near the surface and are the dominant type of massive ice in the Arctic, are particularly vulnerable to warming. Yet processes controlling ice wedge degradation and stabilization are poorly understood. Here we quantified ice wedge volume and degradation rates, compared ground ice characteristics and thermal regimes across a sequence of five degradation and stabilization stages and evaluated biophysical feedbacks controlling permafrost stability near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Mean ice wedge volume in the top 3 m of permafrost was 21%. Imagery from 1949 to 2012 showed thermokarst extent (area of water‐filled troughs) was relatively small from 1949 (0.9%) to 1988 (1.5%), abruptly increased by 2004 (6.3%) and increased slightly by 2012 (7.5%). Mean annual surface temperatures varied by 4.9°C among degradation and stabilization stages and by 9.9°C from polygon center to deep lake bottom. Mean thicknesses of the active layer, ice‐poor transient layer, ice‐rich intermediate layer, thermokarst cave ice, and wedge ice varied substantially among stages. In early stages, thaw settlement caused water to impound in thermokarst troughs, creating positive feedbacks that increased net radiation, soil heat flux, and soil temperatures. Plant growth and organic matter accumulation in the degraded troughs provided negative feedbacks that allowed ground ice to aggrade and heave the surface, thus reducing surface water depth and soil temperatures in later stages. The ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks greatly complicate efforts to assess permafrost responses to climate change.
We examined the effects of fire disturbance on permafrost degradation and thaw settlement across a series of wildfires (from~1930 to 2010) in the forested areas of collapse-scar bog complexes in the Tanana Flats lowland of interior Alaska. Field measurements were combined with numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics to assess the roles of fire severity and climate history in postfire permafrost dynamics. Field-based calculations of potential thaw settlement following the loss of remaining ice-rich permafrost averaged 0.6 m. This subsidence would cause the surface elevations of forests to drop on average 0.1 m below the surface water level of adjacent collapse-scar features. Up to 0.5 m of thaw settlement was documented after recent fires, causing water impoundment and further thawing along forest margins. Substantial heterogeneity in soil properties (organic layer thickness, texture, moisture, and ice content) was attributed to differing site histories, which resulted in distinct soil thermal regimes by soil type. Model simulations showed increasing vulnerability of permafrost to deep thawing and thaw settlement with increased fire severity (i.e., reduced organic layer thickness). However, the thresholds of fire severity that triggered permafrost destabilization varied temporally in response to climate. Simulated permafrost dynamics underscore the importance of multiyear to multidecadal fluctuations in air temperature and snow depth in mediating the effects of fire on permafrost. Our results suggest that permafrost is becoming increasingly vulnerable to substantial thaw and collapse after moderate to high-severity fire, and the ability of permafrost to recover is diminishing as the climate continues to warm.
Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse-scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice-rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half-century, and much of these carbon-rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape-level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60-year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape-level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice-rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.
Fire can be a significant driver of permafrost change in boreal landscapes, altering the availability of soil carbon and nutrients that have important implications for future climate and ecological succession. However, not all landscapes are equally susceptible to fire-induced change. As fire frequency is expected to increase in the high latitudes, methods to understand the vulnerability and resilience of different landscapes to permafrost degradation are needed. We present a combination of multiscale remote sensing, geophysical, and field observations that reveal details of both near-surface (<1 m) and deeper (>1 m) impacts of fire on permafrost. Along 11 transects that span burned-unburned boundaries in different landscape settings within interior Alaska, subsurface electrical resistivity and nuclear magnetic resonance data indicate locations where permafrost appears to be resilient to disturbance from fire, areas where warm permafrost conditions exist that may be most vulnerable to future change, and also areas where permafrost has thawed. High-resolution geophysical data corroborate remote sensing interpretations of near-surface permafrost and also add new high-fidelity details of spatial heterogeneity that extend from the shallow subsurface to depths of about 10 m. Results show that postfire impacts on permafrost can be variable and depend on multiple factors such as fire severity, soil texture, soil moisture, and time since fire.
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