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A recent New York law requires medical providers to offer HIV tests as part of routine care. We developed a system dynamics simulation model of the HIV testing and care system to help administrators understand the law's potential epidemic impact, resource needs, strategies to improve implementation, and appropriate outcome indicators for future policy evaluations once postlaw data become available. Policy modeling allowed us to synthesize information from numerous sources including quantitative administrative data sets and practitioners' content expertise, structure the information to be viewed both numerically and visually, and organize consensus for decisionmaking purposes. This case illustrates how policy modeling can provide an integrated framework for administrators to examine policy problems in complex systems, particularly when data time lags limit pre--post comparisons and key outcomes cannot be measured directly.

BackgroundHIV transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is a public health concern because it has the potential to compromise antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the population level. In New York State, high prevalence of TDR in a local cohort and a multiclass resistant case cluster led to the development and implementation of a statewide resistance surveillance system.MethodologyWe conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the 13,109 cases of HIV infection that were newly diagnosed and reported in New York State between 2006 and 2008, including 4,155 with HIV genotypes drawn within 3 months of initial diagnosis and electronically reported to the new resistance surveillance system. We assessed compliance with DHHS recommendations for genotypic resistance testing and estimated TDR among new HIV diagnoses.Principal FindingsOf 13,109 new HIV diagnoses, 9,785 (75%) had laboratory evidence of utilization of HIV-related medical care, and 4,155 (43%) had a genotype performed within 3 months of initial diagnosis. Of these, 11.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.2%–12.1%) had any evidence of TDR. The proportion with mutations associated with any antiretroviral agent in the NNRTI, NRTI or PI class was 6.3% (5.5%–7.0%), 4.3% (3.6%–4.9%) and 2.9% (2.4%–3.4%), respectively. Multiclass resistance was observed in <1%. TDR did not increase significantly over time (p for trend = 0.204). Men who have sex with men were not more likely to have TDR than persons with heterosexual risk factor (OR 1.0 (0.77–1.30)). TDR to EFV+TDF+FTC and LPV/r+TDF+FTC regimens was 7.1% (6.3%–7.9%) and 1.4% (1.0%–1.8%), respectively.Conclusions/SignificanceTDR appears to be evenly distributed and stable among new HIV diagnoses in New York State; multiclass TDR is rare. Less than half of new diagnoses initiating care received a genotype per DHHS guidelines.

OBJECTIVE To identify factors associated with continuity of care and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) virologic suppression among postpartum women diagnosed with HIV during pregnancy in New York State. METHODS This retrospective cohort study was conducted among 228 HIV-infected women diagnosed during pregnancy between 2008 and 2010. Initial receipt of HIV-related medical care (first CD4 or viral load test after diagnosis) was evaluated at 30 days after diagnosis and before delivery. Retention in care (2 or more CD4 or viral load tests, 90 days or greater apart) and virologic suppression (viral load 200 copies/mL or less) were evaluated in the 12 months after hospital discharge. RESULTS Most women had their initial HIV-related care encounter within 30 days of diagnosis (74%) and before delivery (87%). Of these women, 70% were retained in the first year postpartum. Women waiting more than 30 days for their initial HIV-related care encounter were more likely diagnosed in the first (29%) compared with the third (11%) trimester and were of younger (younger than 25 years, 32%) compared with older (35 years or older, 13%) age. Loss to follow-up within the first year was significantly greater among women diagnosed in the third compared with the first trimester (adjusted relative risk 2.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41–3.45) and among women who had a cesarean compared with vaginal delivery (adjusted relative risk 1.76, 95% CI 1.07– 2.91). Of the 178 women with one or more HIV viral load test in the first year postpartum, 58% had an unsuppressed viral load. CONCLUSION Despite the high proportion retained in care, many women had poor postpartum virologic control. Robust strategies are needed to increase virologic suppression among newly diagnosed postpartum HIV-infected women.

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The duration of HIV infection is usually unknown for most patients entering into HIV care. Data on the frequency at which resistance mutations are detected in these patients are needed to support practical guidance on the use of resistance testing in this clinical situation. Furthermore, little is known about HIV subtype diversity in much of the United States. Therefore, we analyzed the prevalence of drug resistance mutations and nonsubtype B strains of HIV among antiretroviral-naïve individuals presenting for HIV care in New York State between September 2000 and January 2004. Sequences were obtained using a commercial HIV genotyping assay. Seventeen of 151 subjects (11.3%; 95% confidence interval 7.2%-17.3%) had at least one drug-resistance mutation, including 5 subjects with fewer than 200 CD4(+) T cells, indicative of advanced infection. Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, and protease inhibitor resistance mutations were detected in 6.6%, 5.3%, and 0.7% of subjects, respectively. Subjects from New York City-based clinics were less likely to have resistant virus than subjects from clinics elsewhere in New York State. Nonsubtype B strains of HIV were detected in 9 (6.0%) individuals and were associated with heterosexual contact. Two nonsubtype B strains from this cohort also carried drug-resistance mutations. These data indicate that drug-resistant virus is frequently detected in antiretroviral-naïve individuals entering HIV care in New York State. Furthermore, a diverse set of nonsubtype B strains were identified and evidence suggests that nonsubtype B strains, including those carrying drug-resistance mutations, are being transmitted in New York State.

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A mandatory offer of HIV testing may increase diagnoses and avert infections but will not eliminate the epidemic. Despite declines in new infections, previously diagnosed cases will continue to need access to antiretroviral therapy, highlighting the importance of continued funding for HIV care.