Forecasts of El Niño climate events are routinely provided and distributed, but the limits of El Niño predictability are still the subject of debate. Some recent studies suggest that the predictability is largely limited by the effects of high-frequency atmospheric 'noise', whereas others emphasize limitations arising from the growth of initial errors in model simulations. Here we present retrospective forecasts of the interannual climate fluctuations in the tropical Pacific Ocean for the period 1857 to 2003, using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The model successfully predicts all prominent El Niño events within this period at lead times of up to two years. Our analysis suggests that the evolution of El Niño is controlled to a larger degree by self-sustaining internal dynamics than by stochastic forcing. Model-based prediction of El Niño therefore depends more on the initial conditions than on unpredictable atmospheric noise. We conclude that throughout the past century, El Niño has been more predictable than previously envisaged.
Oceanic mesoscale eddies contribute important horizontal heat and salt transports on a global scale. Here we show that eddy transports are mainly due to individual eddy movements. Theoretical and observational analyses indicate that cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies move westwards, and they also move polewards and equatorwards, respectively, owing to the b of Earth's rotation. Temperature and salinity (T/S) anomalies inside individual eddies tend to move with eddies because of advective trapping of interior water parcels, so eddy movement causes heat and salt transports. Satellite altimeter sea surface height anomaly data are used to track individual eddies, and vertical profiles from co-located Argo floats are used to calculate T/S anomalies. The estimated meridional heat transport by eddy movement is similar in magnitude and spatial structure to previously published eddy covariance estimates from models, and the eddy heat and salt transports both are a sizeable fraction of their respective total transports.
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