A mode choice decision structure incorporating traveler attitudes toward modes and situational constraints is investigated. The major hypothesis tested is that mode choice is determined primarily by situational constraints, such as auto ownership and income, secondly by the quality of alternative modes.The structure of the mode choice process is analyzed with respect to (1) applicability of certain choice criterion forms; (2) psychological weighting of modal attributes in the choice criterion; (3) strength of logit, probit, and discriminant functional forms; (4) the relative strength of socio-economic and attitudinal variables in predicting mode choice. An evaluation is made of 50 binary choice models fitted to a sample of 471 randomly drawn urban travelers. Results indicate that (1) the four choice criterion forms tested are all about equal in predictive strength; (2) psychological weighting has no effect on model strength, but does influence which modal attributes appear to determine choice; (3) the three functional forms tested are all about equal in strength;(4) situational factors account for 80-90% of variation explained by the models, attitudes toward modes 10-20%, thus confirming the primary hypothesis. Implications of these results for mode choice modeling and transit planning are discussed.
This paper proposes the development of an activity-based model of travel that integrates household activities, land use patterns, traffic flows, and regional demographics. The model is intended as a replacement of the traditional Urban Transportation Planning System (UTPS) modeling system now in common use. Operating in a geographic-information system (GIS) environment, the model's heart is a Household Activity Simulator that determines the locations and travel patterns of household members daily activities in 3 categories: mandatory, flexible, and optional. The system produces traffic volumes on streets and land use intensity patterns, as well as typical travel outputs. The model is particularly well suited to analyzing issues related to the Clean Air Act and the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA). Implementation would, ideally, require an activity-based travel diary, but can be done with standard house-interview travel surveys. An implementation effort consisting of validation research in parallel with concurrent model programming is recommended.
This article compares the relative performance cfthe US. and the SO state highway systems against resottrces available, over the period [1984][1985][1986][1987][1988][1989][1990]. Data are collected on 13 measures cf revenues, expenditures, pavement condition, congestion, bridge condition, and accidents. Statistics are normalized to control the effects of size and ir^Jation. Each state's performance is then graded according to whether the state is making progress, holding steady, or losing ground relative to the national trends. Findings shew that the US. highway system is in good condition and is continuing to improve: even statistics on congestion are now beginmng to show improvement. Against this general improvement six states have been able to mainxcdn or inwove their highway systemswith considerably less resources per mile than other states. These states are New Mexico, South Dakota, Wyoming. Mississippi, South CaroUrta, and Arkansas. Each ofthese states seems to have a combination of geography, traffic, economic structure, and fiscal capability that results in particularly cost-effective highway systems. The findings suggest that simplistic explanations of performance based on location, urbanlrural distinctions, weather, climate, or taxes are inadequate: more research is needed to explain the causes ofthese differences.
This paper summarizes a national representative survey of 1,000 employers about the impact of traffic congestion on their business activities. About one third of those surveyed viewed traffic congestion as a moderate or major problem. Most surveyed believed that traffic congestion had increased in the past 5 years. Most employers received or shipped materials regularly, required some workers to drive on the job, and hosted customers. The average employer handled about 28 shipments per week, but large employers often handled several hundred per week. About 12% of shipments were thought to be delayed by local traffic congestion, which cost about $5.3 billion nationally in annual lost time. Some workers drove regularly as part of their jobs; this task amounted to about 23 billion hours nationally in annual transit. About 16% reported congestion delays, which totaled 3.8 billion hours annually and cost about $76 billion, estimates that were similar to those for commuter delay. To reduce these impacts, employers used e-mail, third-party carriers, consolidated shipments, driver assistance, flexibility in work and meeting schedules, and work at home days. Few employers provided transit passes. Access was a key, valued feature of location, and employers deemed it the top advantage of current sites. Only 16% of employers reported that they would consider relocation. However, of those employers that had experienced major congestion problems, 27% had considered relocation, and so had 75% of smaller employers whose workers drove extensively on the job. The study concluded that the impact of traffic congestion on employers was substantial and similar to that on commuters. As an often overlooked dimension of congestion, the impact of traffic congestion on employers needs more attention in transportation plans.
Congestion is already severe and projected to worsen in U.S. metro areas. Few current long-range transportation plans call for reducing congestion. Yet the costs congestion imposes make reducing it imperative. Capacity additions are a key part of reducing congestion. We estimate nationwide capacity needs to keep volume=capacity below 1.0 and thus avoid severe congestion over the next 25 years and the costs of building the new capacity. We then examine a set of specific capacity additions in Atlanta and establish how tolling parts of the system can help pay for much of its costs.
Commercial development at 63 rural and small-town Interstate exits is quantified and related to local market wealth, size, geography, access, traffic, site competition, and other development. Five development types (gas stations, convenience stores, fast food restaurants, sit-down restaurants, and motels) are studied. The geographic information system TransCAD 3.0 is used to determine network access and local trade area characteristics. Models are then estimated for each development type using classification and regression techniques separately and in combination. Model estimates are then compared with actual development. Results show that the relationships are complex, often nonlinear; and show high correlation between development types. The findings should be useful for planning exit land use, coordinating market assessments, determining the value of land, and assessing sites for business placement.
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