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Abstract. A new model is presented for the calculation of the increased incidence of non‐melanoma skin cancer in Caucasians resulting from ozone reduction. The model postulates that the probability of first incidence of such skin cancer is distributed log‐normally as a function of total accumulated lifetime dose of harmful ultraviolet radiation. The effect on skin cancer incidence of an increase in harmful ultraviolet radiation due to ozone reduction can then be calculated directly from the extent to which each individual's lifetime accumulated dose is thereby increased. The result of such a perturbation, on average, would be to cause skin cancer to appear at a slightly earlier age. Since skin cancer is predominantly a disease of the elderly, this shift to younger ages has the effect, when integrated over the entire population, of increasing the overall total incidence of skin cancer.

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