Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) emitted from vegetation are important for the formation of secondary pollutants such as ozone and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in the atmosphere. Therefore, BVOC emission are an important input for air quality models. To model these emissions with high spatial resolution, the accuracy of the underlying vegetation inventory is crucial. We present a BVOC emission model that accommodates different vegetation inventories and uses satellite-based measurements of greenness instead of pre-defined vegetation periods. This approach to seasonality implicitly treats effects caused by water or nutrient availability, altitude and latitude on a plant stand. Additionally, we test the influence of proposed seasonal variability in enzyme activity on BVOC emissions. In its present setup, the emission model calculates hourly emissions of isoprene, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes and the oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOC) methanol, formaldehyde, formic acid, ethanol, acetaldehyde, acetone and acetic acid. In this study, emissions based on three different vegetation inventories are compared with each other and diurnal and seasonal variations in Europe are investigated for the year 2006. Two of these vegetation inventories require information on tree-cover as an input. We compare three different land-cover inventories (USGS GLCC, GLC2000 and Globcover 2.2) with respect to tree-cover. The often-used USGS GLCC land-cover inventory leads to a severe reduction of BVOC emissions due to a potential miss-attribution of broad-leaved trees and reduced tree-cover compared to the two other land-cover inventories. To account for uncertainties in the land-cover classification, we introduce land-cover correction factors for each relevant land-use category to adjust the tree-cover. The results are very sensitive to these factors within the plausible range. For June 2006, total monthly BVOC emissions decreased up to −27% with minimal and increased up to +71% with maximal factors, while in January 2006, the changes in monthly BVOC emissions were −54 and +56% with minimal and maximal factors, respectively. The new seasonality approach leads to a reduction in the annual emissions compared with non-adjusted data. The strongest reduction occurs in OVOC (up to −32%), the weakest in isoprene (as little as −19%). If also enzyme seasonality is taken into account, however, isoprene reacts with the steepest decrease of annual emissions, which are reduced by −44% to −49%, annual emissions of monoterpenes reduce between −30 and −35%. The sensitivity of the model to changes in temperature depends on the climatic zone but not on the vegetation inventory. The sensitivity is higher for temperature increases of 3 K (+31% to +64%) than decreases by the same amount (−20 to −35%). The climatic zones "Cold except summer" and "arid" are most sensitive to temperature changes in January for isoprene and monoterpenes, respectively, while in June, "polar" is most sensitive to temperature for both isoprene and monoterpenes. ...

Abstract. The trends and variability of PM10, PM2.5 and PMcoarse concentrations at seven urban and rural background stations in five European countries for the period between 1998 and 2010 were investigated. Collocated or nearby PM measurements and meteorological observations were used in order to construct Generalized Additive Models, which model the effect of each meteorological variable on PM concentrations. In agreement with previous findings, the most important meteorological variables affecting PM concentrations were wind speed, wind direction, boundary layer depth, precipitation, temperature and number of consecutive days with synoptic weather patterns that favor high PM concentrations. Temperature has a negative relationship to PM2.5 concentrations for low temperatures and a positive relationship for high temperatures. The stationary point of this relationship varies between 5 and 15 °C depending on the station. PMcoarse concentrations increase for increasing temperatures almost throughout the temperature range. Wind speed has a monotonic relationship to PM2.5 except for one station, which exhibits a stationary point. Considering PMcoarse, concentrations tend to increase or stabilize for large wind speeds at most stations. It was also observed that at all stations except one, higher PM2.5 concentrations occurred for east wind direction, compared to west wind direction. Meteorologically adjusted PM time series were produced by removing most of the PM variability due to meteorology. It was found that PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations decrease at most stations. The average trends of the raw and meteorologically adjusted data are −0.4 μg m−3 yr−1 for PM10 and PM2.5 size fractions. PMcoarse have much smaller trends and after averaging over all stations, no significant trend was detected at the 95% level of confidence. It is suggested that decreasing PMcoarse in addition to PM2.5 can result in a faster decrease of PM10 in the future. The trends of the 90th quantile of PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were examined by quantile regression in order to detect long term changes in the occurrence of very large PM concentrations. The meteorologically adjusted trends of the 90th quantile were significantly larger (as an absolute value) on average over all stations (−0.6 μg m−3 yr−1).

This paper describes aerosol modelling in Europe with a focus on Switzerland during summer and winter periods. We modelled PM_2.5 (particles smaller than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) for one summer and two winter periods in years 2006 and 2007 using the CAMx air quality model. The meteorological fields were obtained from MM5 simulations. The modelled wind speeds during some low-wind periods, however, had to be calibrated with measurements to use realistic input for the air quality model. The detailed AMS (aerosol mass spectrometer) measurements at specific locations were used to evaluate the model results. In addition to the base case simulations, we carried out sensitivity tests with modified aerosol precursor emissions, air temperature and deposition. Aerosol concentrations in winter 2006 were twice as high as those in winter 2007, however, the chemical compositions were similar. CAMx could reproduce the relative composition of aerosols very well both in the winter and summer periods. Absolute concentrations of aerosol species were underestimated by about 20 %. Both measurements and model results suggest that organic aerosol (30–38 %) and particulate nitrate (30–36 %) are the main aerosol components in winter. In summer, organic aerosol dominates the aerosol composition (55–57 %) and is mainly of secondary origin. The contribution of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions to the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) was predicted to be very large (>95 %) in Switzerland. The main contributors to the modelled SOA concentrations were oxidation products of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes as well as oligomerization of oxidized compounds. The fraction of primary organic aerosol (POA) derived from measurements was lower than the model predictions indicating the importance of volatility of POA, which has not yet been taken into account in CAMx. Sensitivity tests with reduced NO_x and NH₃ emissions suggest that aerosol formation is more sensitive to ammonia emissions in winter in a large part of Europe. In Switzerland however, aerosol formation is predicted to be NO_x-sensitive. In summer, effects of NO_x and NH₃ emission reductions on aerosol concentrations are predicted to be lower mostly due to lower ammonium nitrate concentrations. In general, the sensitivity to NH₃ emissions is weaker in summer due to higher NH₃ emissions

The trends and variability of PM₁₀, PM_2.5 and PM_coarse concentrations at seven urban and rural background stations in five European countries for the period between 1998 and 2010 were investigated. Collocated or nearby PM measurements and meteorological observations were used in order to construct Generalized Additive Models, which model the effect of each meteorological variable on PM concentrations. In agreement with previous findings, the most important meteorological variables affecting PM concentrations were wind speed, wind direction, boundary layer depth, precipitation, temperature and number of consecutive days with synoptic weather patterns that favor high PM concentrations. Temperature has a negative relationship to PM_2.5 concentrations for low temperatures and a positive relationship for high temperatures. The stationary point of this relationship varies between 5 and 15 °C depending on the station. PM_coarse concentrations increase for increasing temperatures almost throughout the temperature range. Wind speed has a monotonic relationship to PM_2.5 except for one station, which exhibits a stationary point. Considering PM_coarse, concentrations tend to increase or stabilize for large wind speeds at most stations. It was also observed that at all stations except one, higher PM_2.5 concentrations occurred for east wind direction, compared to west wind direction. Meteorologically adjusted PM time series were produced by removing most of the PM variability due to meteorology. It was found that PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations decrease at most stations. The average trends of the raw and meteorologically adjusted data are −0.4 μg m⁻³ yr⁻¹ for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 size fractions. PM_coarse have much smaller trends and after averaging over all stations, no significant trend was detected at the 95% level of confidence. It is suggested that decreasing PM_coarse in addition to PM_2.5 can result in a faster decrease of PM₁₀ in the future. The trends of the 90th quantile of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations were examined by quantile regression in order to detect long term changes in the occurrence of very large PM concentrations. The meteorologically adjusted trends of the 90th quantile were significantly larger (as an absolute value) on average over all stations (−0.6 μg m⁻³ yr⁻¹)

No abstract

We modeled the air quality in Europe during June and January 2006 using the MM5/CAMx model system. In this paper, we discuss the sensitivity of ozone and aerosol formation to precursor emissions such as isoprene, NOx, VOC and NH3. Model results suggested that increased isoprene emissions by a factor of four in June 2006 would lead to an increase in afternoon ozone by up to 10% mainly in southern Europe. On the other hand, the effect of increased isoprene emissions on secondary organic aerosols was predicted to be very small due to low yields for the SOA production pathway from isoprene in the model. Our predictions indicate that NOx emission reductions are more effective to reduce ozone concentrations in a large part of Europe. On the other hand, anthropogenic VOC emission reductions are effective only around the urban areas. Sensitivity tests with reduced NOx and NH3 emissions suggest that aerosol formation is more sensitive to ammonia emissions in winter except a small area in central Europe. In summer, effects of NOx and NH3 emission reductions on aerosol concentrations are predicted to be lower mostly because of lower ammonium nitrate concentrations.

No abstract

This paper describes aerosol modelling in Europe with a focus on Switzerland during summer and winter periods. We modelled PM_2.5 (particles smaller than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) for one summer and two winter periods in years 2006 and 2007 using the MM5/CAMx air quality model system. The detailed AMS (aerosol mass spectrometer) measurements at specific locations were used to evaluate the model results. In addition to the base case simulations, we carried out sensitivity tests with modified aerosol precursor emissions, air temperature and deposition. Aerosol concentrations in winter 2006 were twice as high as those in winter 2007, however, the chemical compositions were similar. CAMx could reproduce the relative composition of aerosols very well both in the winter and summer periods. Absolute concentrations of aerosol species were underestimated by about 20%. Both measurements and model results suggest that organic aerosol (30–38%) and particulate nitrate (30–36%) are the main aerosol components in winter. In summer, organic aerosol dominates the aerosol composition (55–57%) and is mainly of secondary origin. The contribution of biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions to the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) was predicted to be very large (>95%) in Switzerland. The main contributors to the modelled SOA concentrations were oxidation products of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes as well as oligomerization of oxidized compounds. The fraction of primary organic aerosol (POA) derived from measurements was lower than the model predictions indicating the importance of volatility of POA, which has not yet been taken into account in CAMx. Sensitivity tests with reduced NO_x and NH₃ emissions suggest that aerosol formation is more sensitive to ammonia emissions in winter in a large part of Europe. In Switzerland however, aerosol formation is predicted to be NO_x-sensitive. In summer, effects of NO_x and NH₃ emission reductions on aerosol concentrations are predicted to be lower mostly due to lower ammonium nitrate concentrations. In general, the sensitivity to NH₃ emissions is weaker in summer due to higher NH₃ emissions