Sensitivity of ozone and aerosols to precursor emissions in Europe

Aksoyoğlu, Şebnem; Keller, Johannes; Oderbolz, D.; Barmpadimos, I.; Prévôt, Andrê S. H.; Baltensperger, Urs

doi:10.1504/ijep.2012.051215

Cited by 22 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The about 3 times higher isoprene emissions in MEGAN led only to up to ~10% (7 ppb) higher ozone mixing ratios in summer compared to the PSI model. Similarly, an earlier study by Aksoyoglu et al (2012) using the PSI model for BVOC emissions suggested that increasing the isoprene emissions by a factor of four in Europe led to an increase of less than 25 10% in the afternoon ozone mixing ratios. The main reason for the weak effect of isoprene on ozone could be that ozone formation in Europe is mostly sensitive to NO x emissions rather than VOC emissions, as well as rather low ozone production compared with background (Oikonomakis et al, 2018; Sartelet et al, 2012).…”

Section: Ozonementioning

confidence: 61%

Effects of two different biogenic emission models on modelled ozone and aerosol concentrations in Europe

Jiang¹,

Aksoyoğlu²,

Ciarelli³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions are one of the essential inputs for chemical transport models (CTMs), but their estimates are associated with large uncertainties leading to significant influences on air quality modelling. This study aims at investigating the effects of using different BVOC emission models on the performance of a CTM in simulating secondary pollutants, i.e. ozone, organic and inorganic aerosols. The European air quality was simulated for the year 2011 by the regional air quality model Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) version 6.3, using BVOC emissions calculated by two emission models: the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) model and the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosol from Nature (MEGAN) v2.1. Comparison of isoprene and monoterpene emissions from both models showed large differences in their general amounts as well as their spatial distribution both in summer and winter. MEGAN produced more isoprene emissions by a factor of 3 while the PSI model generated three times of monoterpene emissions in summer, while there was negligible difference (~&#8201;4&#8201;%) in sesquiterpene emissions associated with the two models. Despite the large differences in isoprene emissions (i.e. 3-fold), the resulting impact in predicted summer-time ozone proved to be minor (<&#8201;10&#8201;%, O3-MEGAN was higher than O3-PSI by ~&#8201;7&#8201;ppb). Comparisons with measurements from the European air quality database (AirBase) indicated that PSI emissions might improve the model performance at low ozone concentrations, but worsen it at high ozone levels (>&#8201;60&#8201;ppb). A much larger effect of the different BVOC emissions was found for the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations. The higher monoterpene emissions (a factor of ~&#8201;3) by the PSI model led to higher SOA by ~&#8201;110&#8201;% on average in summer, compared to MEGAN, improving substantially the model performance for organic aerosol (OA): the mean bias between modelled and measured OA at 8 Aerodyne aerosol chemical speciation monitor (ACSM)/Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurement stations was reduced by 21&#8201;%&#8211;83&#8201;% in rural/remote stations. Effects on inorganic aerosols (particulate nitrate, sulphate, and ammonia) were relatively smaller (<&#8201;15&#8201;%).

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Section: Ozonementioning

confidence: 61%

Effects of two different biogenic emission models on modelled ozone and aerosol concentrations in Europe

Jiang¹,

Aksoyoğlu²,

Ciarelli³

et al. 2018

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…However, the sensitivity of ozone formation to its precursor emissions might be changing as a result of large NO x emission reductions in Europe since 1990 according to the Gothenburg Protocol. On the other hand, emissions from shipping activities are not regulated as strictly as land emissions and have been increasing continuously, especially in the Mediterranean, affecting both ozone and particulate matter concentrations (Aksoyoglu et al, 2016;Viana et al, 2014).…”

Section: Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of two different biogenic emission models on modelled ozone and aerosol concentrations in Europe

et al. 2019

Self Cite

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Abstract. Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions are one of the essential inputs for chemical transport models (CTMs), but their estimates are associated with large uncertainties, leading to significant influence on air quality modelling. This study aims to investigate the effects of using different BVOC emission models on the performance of a CTM in simulating secondary pollutants, i.e. ozone, organic, and inorganic aerosols. European air quality was simulated for the year 2011 by the regional air quality model Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) version 6.3, using BVOC emissions calculated by two emission models: the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) model and the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosol from Nature (MEGAN) version 2.1. Comparison of isoprene and monoterpene emissions from both models showed large differences in their general amounts, as well as their spatial distribution in both summer and winter. MEGAN produced more isoprene emissions by a factor of 3 while the PSI model generated 3 times the monoterpene emissions in summer, while there was negligible difference (∼4 %) in sesquiterpene emissions associated with the two models. Despite the large differences in isoprene emissions (i.e. 3-fold), the resulting impact in predicted summertime ozone proved to be minor (<10 %; MEGAN O3 was higher than PSI O3 by ∼7 ppb). Comparisons with measurements from the European air quality database (AirBase) indicated that PSI emissions might improve the model performance at low ozone concentrations but worsen performance at high ozone levels (>60 ppb). A much larger effect of the different BVOC emissions was found for the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations. The higher monoterpene emissions (a factor of ∼3) by the PSI model led to higher SOA by ∼110 % on average in summer, compared to MEGAN, and lead to better agreement between modelled and measured organic aerosol (OA): the mean bias between modelled and measured OA at nine measurement stations using Aerodyne aerosol chemical speciation monitors (ACSMs) or Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometers (AMSs) was reduced by 21 %–83 % at rural or remote stations. Effects on inorganic aerosols (particulate nitrate, sulfate, and ammonia) were relatively small (<15 %).

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“…A higher impact is seen in the polluted areas such as the PV region, the Mediterranean coasts in Italy and southeast France (MD region) and the BX region. The Benelux area is exposed to high NO x emissions from both land and shipping activities, leading to a more VOC-sensitive chemical regime for ozone production in this region (Beekmann and Vautard, 2010;Aksoyoglu et al, 2012). The geographical characteristics of the Po Valley in northern Italy led to a trap and accumulation of the pollutants in the area (de Meij et al, 2009a, b;Pernigotti et al, 2012Pernigotti et al, , 2013, which in return can also affect the nearby stations that are located in the MD region.…”

Section: Increased Voc Emissionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NOx) in Europe

et al. 2018

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Abstract. High surface ozone concentrations, which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies. However, the modeled ozone production is often not or not enough evaluated in many ozone modeling studies. The focus of this work is to evaluate the modeled ozone production in Europe indirectly, with the use of the ozone-temperature correlation for the summer of 2010 and to analyze its sensitivity to precursor emissions and meteorology by using the regional air quality model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). The results show that the model significantly underestimates the observed high afternoon surface ozone mixing ratios (≥ 60 ppb) by 10-20 ppb and overestimates the lower ones (< 40 ppb) by 5-15 ppb, resulting in a misleading good agreement with the observations for average ozone. The model also underestimates the ozone-temperature regression slope by about a factor of 2 for most of the measurement stations. To investigate the impact of emissions, four scenarios were tested: (i) increased volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by a factor of 1.5 and 2 for the anthropogenic and biogenic VOC emissions, respectively, (ii) increased nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions by a factor of 2, (iii) a combination of the first two scenarios and (iv) increased trafficonly NO x emissions by a factor of 4. For southern, eastern, and central (except the Benelux area) Europe, doubling NO x emissions seems to be the most efficient scenario to reduce the underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios without significant degradation of the model performance for the lower ozone mixing ratios. The model performance for ozone-temperature correlation is also better when NO x emissions are doubled. In the Benelux area, however, the third scenario (where both NO x and VOC emissions are increased) leads to a better model performance. Although increasing only the traffic NO x emissions by a factor of 4 gave very similar results to the doubling of all NO x emissions, the first scenario is more consistent with the uncertainties reported by other studies than the latter, suggesting that high uncertainties in NO x emissions might originate mainly from the road-transport sector rather than from other sectors. The impact of meteorology was examined with three sensitivity tests: (i) increased surface temperature by 4 • C, (ii) reduced wind speed by 50 % and (iii) doubled wind speed. The first two scenarios led to a consistent increase in all surface ozone mixing ratios, thus improving the model performance for the high ozone values but significantly degrading it for the low ozone values, while the third scenario had exactly the opposite effects. Overall, the modeled ozone is predicted to be more sensitive to its precursor emissions (especially traffic NO x ) and therefore their uncertainties, which seem to be responsible for the model un...

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Sensitivity of ozone and aerosols to precursor emissions in Europe

Cited by 22 publications

References 22 publications

Effects of two different biogenic emission models on modelled ozone and aerosol concentrations in Europe

Effects of two different biogenic emission models on modelled ozone and aerosol concentrations in Europe

Effects of two different biogenic emission models on modelled ozone and aerosol concentrations in Europe

Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe

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Sensitivity of ozone and aerosols to precursor emissions in Europe

Cited by 22 publications

References 22 publications

Effects of two different biogenic emission models on modelled ozone and aerosol concentrations in Europe

Effects of two different biogenic emission models on modelled ozone and aerosol concentrations in Europe

Effects of two different biogenic emission models on modelled ozone and aerosol concentrations in Europe

Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO&lt;sub&gt;&lt;i&gt;x&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/sub&gt;) in Europe

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Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NO<sub><i>x</i></sub>) in Europe