Every innovation begins as a deviation from existing social norms. Given the strong effect of social norms and pressure, how can any innovation ever diffuse to the point where it becomes a new social norm? The seeming paradox of how a minority can influence the majority has not been explained well by prevailing social science theory. Computer simulations of the diffusion of a new behavior within the social network of a Bangladesh village led to the discovery of a new principle of social change that resolves this paradox. The results revealed the important but overlooked role played by boundaries that emerge within a social network and how such local boundaries affect the creation of a new social norm. A minority position can become the social norm by means of the process of bounded normative influence. As long as a minority maintains its majority status within its own, locally bounded portion of the network, then it can survive, recruit converts in the near surround, and establish its behavior as the norm for the network as a whole. The process is accelerated when the minority subgroup is centrally located in the network and communicates more frequently and persuasively than the majority.
Cost-effectiveness analysis is based on a simple formula. A dollar estimate of the total cost to conduct a program is divided by the number of people estimated to have been affected by it in terms of some intended outcome. The direct, total costs of most communication campaigns are usually available. Estimating the amount of effect that can be attributed to the communication alone, however is problematical in full-coverage, mass media campaigns where the randomized control group design is not feasible. Single-equation, multiple regression analysis controls for confounding variables but does not adequately address the issue of causal attribution. In this article, multivariate causal attribution (MCA) methods are applied to data from a sample survey of 1,516 married women in the Philippines to obtain a valid measure of the number of new adopters of modern contraceptives that can be causally attributed to a national mass media campaign and to calculate its cost-effectiveness. The MCA analysis uses structural equation modeling to test the causal pathways and to test for endogeneity, biprobit analysis to test for direct effects of the campaign and endogeneity, and propensity score matching to create a statistically equivalent, matched control group that approximates the results that would have been obtained from a randomized control group design. The MCA results support the conclusion that the observed, 6.4 percentage point increase in modern contraceptive use can be attributed to the national mass media campaign and to its indirect effects on attitudes toward contraceptives. This net increase represented 348,695 new adopters in the population of married women at a cost of U.S. $1.57 per new adopter.
Shabuj Chaya is a weekly television drama broadcast during a 13-week period in Bangladesh in 2000. It used an entertainment-education format to increase health knowledge and to promote visits to health clinic and modern contraceptive use. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how a relatively new statistical technique, propensity score matching in conjunction with structural equation modeling, can be used to obtain an unbiased estimate of changes in health outcomes that can be attributed to exposure to the drama. The analysis is conducted with data from an after-only, cross-sectional survey of 4,492 men and women from the intended audience. The results from propensity score matching approximate what would be expected from a randomized control group design.
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