Abstract. This study is presented as a contribution to earthquake disaster mitigation studies for selected cities in Turkey. The risk evaluations must be based on earthquake hazard analysis and city information. To estimate the ground motion level, data for earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4.5 and an epicenter location within a 100-km radius of each city were used for the period from 1900 to 2006, as recorded at the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for each city was carried out using Poisson probabilistic approaches. Ground motion level was estimated as the probability of a given degree of acceleration with a 10% exceedence rate during a 50-year time period for each city. The risk level of each city was evaluated using the number of houses, the per-capita income of city residents, population, and ground motion levels. The maximum risk level obtained for the cities was taken as a reference value for relative risk assessment, and other risk values were estimated relative to the maximum risk level. When the selected cities were classified according to their relative risk levels, the five most risky cities were found to be, in descending order of risk, Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara, Bursa, and Kocaeli.
ÖZ Günümüz koşullarında ülkemizde bahsi geçen ve afet risklerinin azaltılması amacıyla yapılandırılması gerekli olan Bütünleşik Afet Yönetim Sistemi; afet öncesinde afete maruz kalmayı önleyici tedbirleri içeren Zarar Azaltma safhasını ve afet anından itibaren müdahale ve iyileştirme safhalarına yani Kriz Yönetimine hazırlık çalışmalarını içeren sistemdir. 1999 yılı öncesi hazırlanmış olan ve kendi dönemi içinde "afet döngüsü" diye isimlendirdiğimiz döngüye baktığımızda, bültünleşik afet yönetim sistemiyle prensipte aynı olduğunu görmekteyiz. Söz konusu döngü kapsamında afetlerle ilgili mevcut mevzuatlarımız incelendiğinde, planlamaya yönelik sadece "kriz yönetimi"ni içeren mevzuatımızın yürürlükte olduğu görülmüştür. Mevzuatımız çerçevesinde afete hazırlık için yapılan çalışmaların doğru, hızlı ve etkin yürütülebilmesi için, kriz yönetiminde kullanılmak üzere Geographical Information Systems (GIS), ülkemizdeki söylemiyle Cografi Bilgi Sistemi (GBS), yaklaşımından yararlanılması amaçlı GIS tabanlı tasarım oluşturulmuştur.ABSTRACT Nowadays, integrated disaster management includes the phases (Mitigation, Preparedness, Response and Recovery) of disaster management that all are called mitigation (before disaster) and crisis management (after the disaster) studies. Legal framework (the body of current law) of disaster management phases, mentioned above, in our country includes only "Response and Recovery" phase (or crisis management) of the disaster plan. A Geographical Information Systems (GIS) approach has been designed to crisis management that is applicable because of legal framework of our country. When we consider disaster caused by the hazard of the possible/expected earthquakes on Marmara Region, GIS based computer model has been designed by aims for fast first and emergency aid to victims and to oriented fastly and correctly to the groups, that charged after the disaster, into disaster sites.
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