Brief communication "Fast-track earthquake risk assessment for selected urban areas in Turkey"

Abstract

Abstract. This study is presented as a contribution to earthquake disaster mitigation studies for selected cities in Turkey. The risk evaluations must be based on earthquake hazard analysis and city information. To estimate the ground motion level, data for earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 4.5 and an epicenter location within a 100-km radius of each city were used for the period from 1900 to 2006, as recorded at the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for each city was carried out using Poisson probabilistic approaches. Ground motion level was estimated as the probability of a given degree of acceleration with a 10% exceedence rate during a 50-year time period for each city. The risk level of each city was evaluated using the number of houses, the per-capita income of city residents, population, and ground motion levels. The maximum risk level obtained for the cities was taken as a reference value for relative risk assessment, and other risk values were estimated relative to the maximum risk level. When the selected cities were classified according to their relative risk levels, the five most risky cities were found to be, in descending order of risk, Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara, Bursa, and Kocaeli.

The Importance of Seismic Microzonation under the Threat of an Earthquake of the North Anatolian Fault in Nilüfer, Bursa, Turkey

“…Parson (2004) calculated the probability of an earthquake on the northern branch of the NAF, within the Sea of Marmara with a magnitude of Mw: 7.0 or greater within 30 years to be 44 ± 18%. The probability of Mw: 6.0 magnitude earthquake affecting Nilüfer district in 50 years is 98.4%, while the probability of Mw:6.5 magnitude earthquake in the same period is 80.4%, and for Mw: 7.0 magnitude it is calculated as 47.5% (Kepekci and Ozcep (2011). Yılmaz and Yücemen (2011) de ned 91 faults in a large area that includes the city of Bursa.…”

The Mechanism of Operation Effectiveness of Emergency Shelter Rescue Systems

“…This practice ignores that the evacuation life is a process, which makes it difficult to guarantee the basic life of victims and cannot accurately carry out natural disaster operations, resulting in the blindness of evacuation. For example, after the magnitude 7.2 earthquake occurred in Turkey in 2011, due to the lack of planning of emergency shelters in advance, the evacuees had to take refuge in the open air [34]. The rescue of the shelter spans the preparation, response and recovery phases, aiming to create conditions for clothing, food, housing, and medical care.…”

Physical earth and its sciences in Istanbul: a journey from pre-modern (Islamic) to modern times

“…Geologically (Ketin, 1983). Pyotr Alexandrovich Tchihatchev (1808-1890) was a Russian naturalist and geologist who was admitted into Russian Academy of Sciences in 1876 as an honorary member.…”

“…Historical records show that Ottoman geography (especially the Anatolian Peninsula) has experienced many major earthquake shocks that have damaged and destroyed urban centres. For example, the Sea of Marmara earthquake on 10 September 1509 destroyed the city of Istanbul and was one of the largest earthquakes in the previous 5 centuries ( Kepekci and Ozcep, 2011).…”