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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic epicentre has moved to the USA and Europe, where it is placing unprecedented demands on healthcare resources and staff availability. These service constraints, coupled with concerns relating to an increased incidence and severity of COVID-19 among patients with cancer, should lead to re-consideration of the risk–benefit balance for standard treatment pathways. This is of particular importance to pancreatic cancer, given that standard diagnostic modalities such as endoscopy may be restricted, and that disease biology precludes significant delays in treatment. In light of this, we sought consensus from UK clinicians with an interest in pancreatic cancer for management approaches that would minimise patient risk and accommodate for healthcare service restrictions. The outcomes are described here and include recommendations for treatment prioritisation, strategies to bridge to later surgical resection in resectable disease and factors that modify the risk–benefit balance for treatment in the resectable through to the metastatic settings. Priority is given to strategies that limit hospital visits, including through the use of hypofractionated precision radiotherapy and chemoradiotherapy treatment approaches.

Highlights Acute GI toxicity is highly prevalent and dose-limiting in the treatment of rectal cancer  The dose-volume relationship for the small bowel is inadequately understood  We have conducted meta-analysis of published dose-volume-histogram datasets  We found a significant increase in toxicity with increased irradiated volume  We also showed increased risk with increased dose for a given irradiated volume Acknowledgements: MAH is funded by UK Medical Research Council grant MC_UU_00001/2 ResultsOn fixed-effects meta-analysis of three studies (203 patients), each of the dose-volume measures V5Gy-V40Gy were significantly greater (p < 0.00001) for patients with Grade ≥3 toxicity than for those without. Absolute difference was largest for the lowest dose-volume parameter; however relative difference increases with increasing dose. On logistic regression multiple small-bowel DVH parameters were predictive of toxicity risk (V5Gy, V10Gy, V30Gy -V45Gy), with V10Gy the strongest (p = 0.004). ConclusionsAnalysis of published clinical cohort dose-volume data provides evidence for a significant dose-volume-toxicity response effect for a wide range of clinically-relevant doses in the treatment of rectal cancer. Both low dose and high dose are shown to predict toxicity risk, which has important implications for radiotherapy planning and consideration of dose escalation for these patients.

Background and purposeGastro-intestinal toxicity is dose-limiting in abdominal radiotherapy and correlated with duodenum dose-volume parameters. We aimed to derive updated NTCP model parameters using published data and prospective radiotherapy quality-assured cohort data.Material and methodsA systematic search identified publications providing duodenum dose-volume histogram (DVH) statistics for clinical studies of conventionally-fractionated radiotherapy. Values for the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) NTCP model were derived through sum-squared-error minimisation and using leave-one-out cross-validation. Data were corrected for fraction size and weighted according to patient numbers, and the model refined using individual patient DVH data for two further cohorts from prospective clinical trials.ResultsSix studies with published DVH data were utilised, and with individual patient data included outcomes for 531 patients in total (median follow-up 16 months). Observed gastro-intestinal toxicity rates ranged from 0% to 14% (median 8%). LKB parameter values for unconstrained fit to published data were: n = 0.070, m = 0.46, TD50(1) [Gy] = 183.8, while the values for the model incorporating the individual patient data were n = 0.193, m = 0.51, TD50(1) [Gy] = 299.1.ConclusionsLKB parameters derived using published data are shown to be consistent to those previously obtained using individual patient data, supporting a small volume-effect and dependence on exposure to high threshold dose.