This paper describes the development and application of a technique for measuring and controlling development progress for the Polaris Fleet Ballistic Missile program, Special Projects Office, Bureau of Ordnance, U.S. Navy. Project PERT (Program Evaluation Research Task) was set up to develop, test, and implement a methodology for providing management with integrated and quantitative evaluation of (a) progress to date and the outlook for accomplishing the objectives of the FBM program, (b) validity of established plans and schedules for accomplishing the program objectives, and (c) effects of changes proposed in established plans. In the PERT model, the R and D program is characterized as a network of interrelated events to be achieved in proper ordered sequence. Basic data for the analysis consists of elapsed time estimates for activities which connect dependent events in the network. The time estimates are obtained from responsible technical persons and are subsequently expressed in probability terms. This model is described. Test of the model on a specific component, design of a management control system properly related to existing management systems, reduction to the NORC computer, difficulties in implementation and preliminary results to date are discussed. Limitations of the model, and possible refinements and use of the computer model for testing schedules and for management experimentation in resource and performance tradeoffs are described.
The subject of this paper is a multi-stage, multi-person business game which will be used for executive training purposes by the American Management Association. A discussion of the basic philosophy of game play, and of the many analytical, computational, and conceptual difficulties encountered in the construction of business games, is followed by a description of the game in question, as actually constructed and played, with particular attention to four features which, it is felt, merit consideration: (1) Absence of an explicit criterion function; (2) Principle of marginal change; (3) Hidden formulas; (4) Minimal computation. The game (which, in a number of preliminary plays with top management participating, has met with a favorable reception) is outlined in some detail with a view to showing how it circumvents or overcomes a number of the obstacles described.
Computer simulation, as a problem-solving technique, is now proving to be of increasing value as part of research and design methods directed towards attaining a better understanding and improved control of the operations of complex business and military organization. In system simulation the computer is typically utilized in problem-solving associated with the specific tasks of designing better systems, understanding the workings of operative systems, and studying man-machine interactions. Literature dealing with system simulation is appearing more frequently, but still sporadic enough to warrant the collection here of a number of individual titles that have proved of special interest. This bibliography represents a fair sampling of simulation literature to date. For the convenience of the user, industrial and military applications have been kept separate. Finally, a number of titles on simulation training games and exercises have been included.
In planning and managing one of today's scientific development programs, the project manager must chart a course of action from seemingly innumerable alternatives. In addition to the quantity of decisions, his planning and management tasks are usually further complicated by a required compression of the time schedule for the project and by the knowledge that Performance, Cost and Time estimates, from which he must base his decisions, are biased and have an unknown amount of uncertainty built into them. Research and development management today attempts to give overall direction to its research resources applied to the programs, projects, and the systems making up each project, by requiring evidence of a concurrent, coordinated plan for achieving technical, cost and time objectives. Once such a plan is established and approved—a plan in which a high degree of interdependence and uncertainty exists—a requirement for a project team that is capable of literally “creating on schedule” has in effect been established. Management Technology, ISSN 0542-4917, was published as a separate journal from 1960 to 1964. In 1965 it was merged into Management Science.
Will the computer ever replace management men in making top business decisions? Hardly, but military experience with SAGE and SACCS proves that when the machines go to work on the line, changes must be made in the command structure. The first step is research which the machine, using simulation models, does to develop a set of management principles. To learn what happens next and what may happen in the very near future, read this article.
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