Application of a Technique for Research and Development Program Evaluation

Abstract

This paper describes the development and application of a technique for measuring and controlling development progress for the Polaris Fleet Ballistic Missile program, Special Projects Office, Bureau of Ordnance, U.S. Navy. Project PERT (Program Evaluation Research Task) was set up to develop, test, and implement a methodology for providing management with integrated and quantitative evaluation of (a) progress to date and the outlook for accomplishing the objectives of the FBM program, (b) validity of established plans and schedules for accomplishing the program objectives, and (c) effects of changes proposed in established plans. In the PERT model, the R and D program is characterized as a network of interrelated events to be achieved in proper ordered sequence. Basic data for the analysis consists of elapsed time estimates for activities which connect dependent events in the network. The time estimates are obtained from responsible technical persons and are subsequently expressed in probability terms. This model is described. Test of the model on a specific component, design of a management control system properly related to existing management systems, reduction to the NORC computer, difficulties in implementation and preliminary results to date are discussed. Limitations of the model, and possible refinements and use of the computer model for testing schedules and for management experimentation in resource and performance tradeoffs are described.

A branch-and-bound procedure for the resource-constrained project scheduling problem with generalized precedence relations

“…CPM (Critical Path Method; Kelley and Walker, 1959) and PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique; Malcolm et al, 1959) are basically devoted to project scheduling under the assumption that required resources are available in sufficient amounts, and that the technological precedence relations between any pair of activities i and j imply strict precedence, meaning that activity i must be completed before activity j can be initiated. For many years, the assumption of sufficiently available resources has been relaxed and many research efforts have been directed towards project scheduling with explicit consideration of resource requirements and constraints.…”

Projektek átfogó tervezésének és koordinálásának támogatása mátrixokkal = Comprehensive Planning and Coordinating by Matrix-based Methods

“…Azok a projektorientált vállalatok azonban, melyek -Ganttdiagramokkal (Gantt, 1919), hálós ütemtervekkel (Kelley-Walker, 1959;Fondahl, 1961;Fulkerson, 1962;Pritsker,1966;Khoo et al, 2003;Malcolm et al, 1959;Roy, 1962;PMI, 2004) -átfogó projekttervezés elvégzésére törekednek, nyomon követési, koordinációs és erőforrás allokációs problémák megoldásának céljából, jobb híján olyan szoftvereket, technikákat használnak fel, melyek vizualitásuk és a belőlük származtatott következtetések levonhatóságának hiányában alkalmatlannak bizonyulnak az átfogó tervezésben rejlő előnyök kiaknázására.…”

Estimating Total Program Cost of a Long-Term, High-Technology, High-Risk Project with Task Durations and Costs That May Increase Over Time

“…This takes a lot of computation, but the insights are worth the effort. Malcolm, Roseboom, Clark, and Fazar (1959) More recent concepts of CPM allow for greater flexibility in these areas, for example by allowing tasks to be scheduled in either "regular time" (with nominal costs) or in "crash time" (with higher costs), and by allowing cost constraints. Even with these innovations the concept of a "task" remains unitary in nature.…”