In June 2013, excessive rainfall associated with an intense weather system triggered severe flooding in southern Alberta, which became the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. This article provides an overview of the climatological aspects and large-scale hydrometeorological features associated with the flooding event based upon information from a variety of sources, including satellite data, upper air soundings, surface observations and operational model analyses. The results show that multiple factors combined to create this unusually severe event. The event was characterized by a slow-moving upper level low pressure system west of Alberta, blocked by an upper level ridge, while an associated well-organized surface low pressure system kept southern Alberta, especially the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, in continuous precipitation for up to two days. Results from air parcel trajectory analysis show that a significant amount of the moisture originated from the central Great Plains, transported into Alberta by a southeasterly low level jet. The event was first dominated by significant thunderstorm activity, and then evolved into continuous precipitation supported by the synoptic-scale low pressure system. Both the thunderstorm activity and upslope winds associated with the low pressure system produced large rainfall amounts. A comparison with previous similar events occurring in the same region suggests that the synoptic-scale features associated with the 2013 rainfall event were not particularly intense; however its storm environment was the most convectively unstable. The system also exhibited a relatively high freezing level, which resulted in rain, rather than snow, mainly falling over the still snow-covered mountainous areas. Melting associated with this rain-on-snow scenario likely contributed to downstream flooding. Furthermore, above-normal snowfall in the preceding spring helped to maintain snow in the high-elevation areas, which facilitated the rain-on-snow event.

A finite amplitude theory is developed for the evolution of marginally unstable modes for a mesoscale gravity current on a sloping bottom. The theory is based on a nonquasigeostrophic, baroclinic model of the convective destabilization of gravity currents which allows for large amplitude isopycnal deflections while filtering out harotropic instabilities. Two calculations are presented. First, a purely temporal amplitude equation is derived for marginally unstable modes not located at the minimum of the marginal stability curve. These modes eventually equilibrate with a new finite amplitude periodic solution formed.Second, the evolution of a packet of marginally unstable modes located at the minimum of the marginal stability curve is presented. These two models are dramatically different due to fundamental physical differences. For marginally unstable modes not located at the minimum of the marginal stability curve, it is possible to determine the evolution of a single normal mode amplitude. For the marginally unstable mode located at the minimum of the marginal stability curve the entire gravity current forms a nonlinear critical layer leading to an infinity of coupled amplitude equations. If this system is truncated, on an ad koc basis, to include only the fundamental harmonic and its accompanying mean flow, there exists a steadily-travelling solitary cold-core eddy solution.

Abstract. Ten different approaches for applying lateral and top climatological boundary conditions for ozone have been evaluated using the off-line regional air-quality model AURAMS, driven with meteorology provided by the GEM weather-forecast model. All ten approaches employ the same climatological ozone profiles, but differ in the manner in which they are applied, via the inclusion or exclusion of (i) a dynamic adjustment of the climatological ozone profile in response to the model-predicted tropopause height, (ii) a sponge zone for ozone on the model top, (iii) upward extrapolation of the climatological ozone profile, and (iv) different mass consistency corrections. The model performance for each approach was evaluated against North American surface ozone and ozonesonde observations from the BAQSMet field study period in the summer of 2007. The original daily one-hour maximum surface ozone biases of about +15 ppbv were greatly reduced (halved) in some simulations using alternative methodologies. However, comparisons to ozonesonde observations showed that the reduction in surface ozone bias sometimes came at the cost of significant positive biases in ozone concentrations in the free troposphere and upper troposphere. The best overall performance throughout the troposphere was achieved using a methodology that included dynamic tropopause height adjustment, no sponge zone at the model top, extrapolation of ozone when required above the limit of the climatology, and no mass consistency corrections (global mass conservation was still Correspondence to: P. A. Makar (paul.makar@ec.gc.ca) enforced). The simulation using this model version had a one-hour daily maximum surface ozone bias of +8.6 ppbv, with small reductions in model correlation, and the best comparison to ozonesonde profiles. This recommended and original methodologies were compared for two further case studies: a high-resolution simulation of the BAQS-Met measurement intensive, and a study of the downwind region of the Canadian Rockies. Significant improvements were noted for the high resolution simulations during the BAQSMet measurement intensive period, both in formal statistical comparisons and time series comparisons of events at surface stations. The tests for the downwind-Rockies region showed that the coupling between vertical transport associated with troposphere/stratosphere exchange, and that associated with boundary layer turbulent mixing, may contribute to ozone positive biases. The results may be unique to the modelling setup employed, but the results also highlight the importance of evaluating boundary condition and mass consistency/correction algorithms against three-dimensional datasets.

A devastating, flood-producing rainstorm occurred over southern Alberta, Canada, from 19 to 22 June 2013. The long-lived, heavy rainfall event was a result of complex interplays between topographic, synoptic, and convective processes that rendered an accurate simulation of this event a challenging task. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate this event and was validated against several observation datasets. Both the timing and location of the model precipitation agree closely with the observations, indicating that the WRF Model is capable of reproducing this type of severe event. Sensitivity tests with different microphysics schemes were conducted and evaluated using equitable threat and bias frequency scores. The WRF double-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WDM6) generally performed better when compared with other schemes. The application of a conventional convective/stratiform separation algorithm shows that convective activity was dominant during the early stages, then evolved into predominantly stratiform precipitation later in the event. The HYSPLIT back-trajectory analysis and regional water budget assessments using WRF simulation output suggest that the moisture for the precipitation was mainly from recycling antecedent soil moisture through evaporation and evapotranspiration over the Canadian Prairies and the U.S. Great Plains. This analysis also shows that a small fraction of the moisture can be traced back to the northeastern Pacific, and direct uptake from the Gulf of Mexico was not a significant source in this event.

. Principal component analysis also shows that the highest TGM concentrations observed are a result of forest fire smoke near the monitoring station. Back trajectory analysis highlights the importance of long-range transport, indicating that unseasonably high TGM concentrations are generally associated with air from the southeast and west, while unseasonably low TGM concentrations are a result of arctic air moving over the monitoring station. In general, TGM concentration appears to be driven by diel and seasonal trends superimposed over a combination of long-range transport and regional surface-air flux of gaseous mercury. OPEN ACCESSAtmosphere 2013, 4 473