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[1] Recent studies indicated that the spatial pattern and temporal variability of summer rainfall over eastern China are well correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Here we used a data set of the drought/flood index (a proxy of summer rainfall) since 1470 AD to reconstruct the annual PDO index. The reconstruction indicates that the PDO is a robust feature of North Pacific climate variability throughout the study period, however, the major modes of oscillation providing the basic PDO regime timescale have not been persistent over the last 530 years. The quasi-centennial (75 -115-yr) and pentadecadal (50 -70-yr) oscillations dominated the periods before and after 1850, respectively. Our analysis suggest that solar forcing fluctuation on quasi-centennial time scale (Gleissberg cycle) could be the pace-maker of the PDO before 1850, and the PDO behavior after 1850 could be due, in part, to the global warming.

[1] The real-time forecasts of ozone (O 3 ) from seven air quality forecast models (AQFMs) are statistically evaluated against observations collected during July and August of 2004 (53 days) through the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now (AIRNow) network at roughly 340 monitoring stations throughout the eastern United States and southern Canada. One of the first ever real-time ensemble O 3 forecasts, created by combining the seven separate forecasts with equal weighting, is also evaluated in terms of standard statistical measures, threshold statistics, and variance analysis. The ensemble based on the mean of the seven models and the ensemble based on the median are found to have significantly more temporal correlation to the observed daily maximum 1-hour average and maximum 8-hour average O 3 concentrations than any individual model. However, root-mean-square errors (RMSE) and skill scores show that the usefulness of the uncorrected ensembles is limited by positive O 3 biases in all of the AQFMs. The ensembles and AQFM statistical measures are reevaluated using two simple bias correction algorithms for forecasts at each monitor location: subtraction of the mean bias and a multiplicative ratio adjustment, where corrections are based on the full 53 days of available comparisons. The impact the two bias correction techniques have on RMSE, threshold statistics, and temporal variance is presented. For the threshold statistics a preferred bias correction technique is found to be model dependent and related to whether the model overpredicts or underpredicts observed temporal O 3 variance. All statistical measures of the ensemble mean forecast, and particularly the bias-corrected ensemble forecast, are found to be insensitive to the results of any particular model. The higher correlation coefficients, low RMSE, and better threshold statistics for the ensembles compared to any individual model point to their preference as a real-time O 3 forecast.

[1] Real-time forecasts of PM 2.5 aerosol mass from seven air quality forecast models (AQFMs) are statistically evaluated against observations collected in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada from two surface networks and aircraft data during the summer of 2004 International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT)/New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) field campaign. The AIRNOW surface network is used to evaluate PM 2.5 aerosol mass, the U.S. EPA STN network is used for PM 2.5 aerosol composition comparisons, and aerosol size distribution and composition measured from the NOAA P-3 aircraft are also compared. Statistics based on midday 8-hour averages, as well as 24-hour averages are evaluated against the AIRNOW surface network. When the 8-hour average PM 2.5 statistics are compared against equivalent ozone statistics for each model, the analysis shows that PM 2.5 forecasts possess nearly equivalent correlation, less bias, and better skill relative to the corresponding ozone forecasts. An analysis of the diurnal variability shows that most models do not reproduce the observed diurnal cycle at urban and suburban monitor locations, particularly during the nighttime to early morning transition. While observations show median rural PM 2.5 levels similar to urban and suburban values, the models display noticeably smaller rural/urban PM 2.5 ratios. The ensemble PM 2.5 forecast, created by combining six separate forecasts with equal weighting, is also evaluated and shown to yield the best possible forecast in terms of the statistical measures considered. The comparisons of PM 2.5 composition with NOAA P-3 aircraft data reveals two important features: (1) The organic component of PM 2.5 is significantly underpredicted by all the AQFMs and (2) those models that include aqueous phase oxidation of SO 2 to sulfate in clouds overpredict sulfate levels while those AQFMs that do not include this transformation mechanism underpredict sulfate. Errors in PM 2.5 ammonium levels tend to correlate directly with errors in sulfate. Comparisons of PM 2.5 composition with the U.S. EPA STN network for three of the AQFMs show that sulfate biases are consistently lower at the surface than aloft. Recommendations for further research and analysis to help improve PM 2.5 forecasts are also provided.

Results from a wind tunnel study of aerodynamically rough turbulent boundary-layer flow over a sinusoidal surface are presented. The waves had a maximum slope (ak) of 0.5 and two surface roughnesses were used. For the relatively rough surface the flow separated in the wave troughs while for the relatively smooth surface it generally remained attached. Over the relatively smooth-surfaced waves an organized secondary flow developed, consisting of vortex pairs of a scale comparable to the boundary-layer depth and aligned with the mean flow. Large-eddy simulation studies model the flows well and provide supporting evidence for the existence of this secondary flow.

[1] Models of aerosol scavenging and aqueous-phase oxidation of SO 2 by H 2 O 2 and O 3 in a cloud updraft are compared. Bulk models considering only a single droplet size are compared with size-resolved models that explicitly simulate multiple aerosol and drop sizes. All models simulate growth of cloud drops on a lognormal ammonium bisulfate aerosol distribution, and subsequent aqueous-phase chemistry during adiabatic ascent. In agreement with earlier published studies, it is found that relative to bulk models, the sizeresolved cloud chemical models consistently calculate 2-3 times more oxidation via the SO 2 + O 3 pathway, due to calculated variability of cloud water pH among cloud drops. All models calculate high scavenging of the input dry aerosol mass, but the calculated number of cloud drops formed varies from 275-358 drops cm À3 . Differences in the calculated number of cloud drops formed result from the treatment of gaseous species uptake, solution thermodynamics, applied water condensation mass accommodation coefficient, and bin size range definitions over which the input aerosol distribution is numerically approximated. The difference in calculated cloud drop number can under many conditions propagate to appreciable variations in cloud albedo. It is found that the modifications to the aerosol size and mass spectrum are sensitive to the number of cloud drops formed, and differences in the processed aerosol spectra were found to induce up to 13% differences in calculated light extinction properties of the modified particle distributions. These significant discrepancies among cloud aerosol chemistry interaction models, even when used to simulate relatively simple conditions, suggest that parameterizations of these processes used in larger-scale cloud, regional and longer-term climate models can contain high levels of uncertainty.

Climate extremes, particularly the droughts sustaining over a prolonged period and affecting extended area (defined as "exceptional drought events"), can have longlasting effects on economic and social activities. Here we use the Chinese drought/flood proxy data of the past five hundred years to identify the cases of exceptional drought events over eastern China (east of 105°E), and to study their spatial patterns and temporal evolutions. The associated circulations for the contemporary case are analyzed using available meteorological data. Possible linkage of these cases to climatic forcing and natural climate events is also explored. After considering the intensity, duration, and spatial coverage, we identified three exceptional drought events, which occurred in 1586-1589, 1638-1641, and 1965-1966 in chronological order. They were the most severe droughts of last five centuries in eastern China, with more than 40% of affected area and the drought center encountered a significant summer rainfall reduction (about 50% or more). These three droughts all developed first in North China (34-40°N), and then either expanded southward or moved to the Yangtze River Valley (27-34°N) and the northern part of the southeastern coastal area (22-27°N). For the 1965-1966 case, the significant reduction of summer precipitation was caused by a weakening of summer monsoon and an anomalous westward and northward displacement of the western Pacific subtropical high. Our analyses also suggest that these three exceptional drought events might be triggered by large volcanic eruptions and amplified by both volcanic eruptions and El Niño events.

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