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COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a huge reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

IntroductionWe describe COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, case fatality and excess death in a country-wide study of municipalities in Hungary, exploring the association with socioeconomic status.MethodsThe spatial distribution of morbidity, mortality and case fatality was mapped using hierarchical Bayesian smoothed indirectly standardised ratios. Indirectly standardised ratios were used to evaluate the association between deprivation and the outcome measures. We looked separately at morbidity and mortality in the 10 districts with the highest and 10 districts with the lowest share of Roma population.ResultsCompared with the national average, the relative incidence of cases was 30%–36% lower in the most deprived quintile but the relative mortality and case fatality were 27%–32% higher. Expressed as incidence ratios relative to the national average, the most deprived municipalities had a relative incidence ratio of 0.64 (CI: 0.62 to 0.65) and 0.70 (CI: 0.69 to 0.72) for males and females, respectively. The corresponding figures for mortality were 1.32 (CI: 1.20 to 1.44) for males and 1.27 (CI: 1.16 to 1.39) for females and for case fatality 1.27 (CI: 1.16 to 1.39) and 1.32 (CI: 1.20 to 1.44) for males and females, respectively. The excess death rate (per 100 000) increased with deprivation levels (least deprived: 114.12 (CI: 108.60 to 119.84) and most deprived: 158.07 (CI: 149.30 to 167.23)). The 10 districts where Roma formed the greatest share of the population had an excess mortality rate 17.46% higher than the average for the most deprived quintile.ConclusionsThose living in more deprived municipalities had a lower risk of being identified as a confirmed COVID-19 case but had a higher risk of death. An inverse association between trends in morbidity and mortality by socioeconomic conditions should be a cause for concern and points to the need for responses, including those involving vaccination, to pay particular attention to inequalities and their causes.

ObjectiveThe study was designed to explore the development of the general practitioner (GP) shortage in primary care and its characteristics in Hungary.DesignLongitudinal follow-up study over the decade 2007–2016.MethodsAnalyses were performed on changes in number, age and sex of GPs by practice type (adult, paediatric and mixed), as well as on their geographical distribution and migration between areas characterised by deprivation index (DI) at municipality level. The association between deprivation and vacancy for GPs was studied by risk analysis. The number of population underserved was defined by DI quintile.Setting and subjectsThe study involved all general practices and GPs in the period examined.Main outcome measureIt is showed that the number of general practices with unfilled GP posts was increasing exponentially, mainly in the most deprived areas of the country.ResultsA decrease in the number of GPs in all types of practices, especially in mixed (by 7.7%; p<0.001) and paediatric (by 6.5%; p<0.001) ones, was shown; the number of adult practices with unfilled GP posts doubled, while the number of paediatric practices with a vacancy for a paediatrician more than tripled. The average age of GPs was increased by 3.7 years (p<0.001) in adult, by 5.4 years (p<0.001) in paediatric and by 4.2 years (p<0.001) in mixed practices. In 2007, 52.27% (95% CI 51.03 to 53.5) of the GPs were women, and this rate increased to 56.19% (95% CI 54.93 to 57.44) by the end of the decade. An exponential association between relative vacancy rate and deprivation was confirmed. As a result of the migration of GPs, in the most deprived areas, the number of GPs decreased by 8.43% (95% CI 5.86 to 10.99).ConclusionsThe workforce crisis in Hungarian primary care is progressively deepening and resulting in more severe inequity in access to healthcare.

The risk of premature mortality caused by cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is approximately three times higher in the Central Eastern European region than in high income European countries, which suggests a lack and/or ineffectiveness of preventive interventions against CVDs. The aim of the present study was to provide data on the relationship between premature CVD mortality, statin utilization as a preventive medication and socioeconomic deprivation at the district level in Hungary. As a conceptually new approach, the prescription of statins, the prescription redemption and the ratio between redemption and prescription rates were also investigated. The number of prescriptions for statins and the number of redeemed statin prescriptions were obtained from the National Health Insurance Fund Administration of Hungary for each primary healthcare practice for the entire year of 2012. The data were aggregated at the district level. To define the frequency of prescription and of redemption, the denominator was the number of the 40+-year-old population adjusted by the rates of 60+-year-old population of the district. The standardized mortality rates, frequency of statin prescriptions, redeemed statin prescriptions, and ratios for compliance in relation to the national average were mapped using the “disease mapping” option, and their association with deprivation (tertile of deprivation index as a district-based categorical covariate) was defined using the risk analysis capabilities within the Rapid Inquiry Facility. The risk analysis showed a significant positive association between deprivation and the relative risk of premature cardiovascular mortality, and a reverse J-shaped association between the relative frequency of statin prescriptions and deprivation. Districts with the highest deprivation showed a low relative frequency of statin prescriptions; however, significantly higher primary compliance (redemption) was observed in districts with the highest deprivation. Our data clearly indicate that insufficient statin utilization is strongly linked to the so-called physician-factor, i.e., a statin prescription. Consequently, statin treatment is poor and represents a significant barrier to reducing mortality, particularly among people living in highly deprived areas of the country.

Differences in deprivation alone cannot explain the spatial distribution of mortality amenable to health care. This study highlights the importance of exploring other factors (e.g. health-care system and individual life style) beyond socio-economic status, which affect health inequalities particularly for health policy makers, who are responsible for the mitigation of health disparities.

Diagnosed cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme disease (LD) have been reportable infectious diseases in Hungary since 1977 and 1998, respectively. Clinically diagnosed cases have been registered in the National Database of Epidemiological Surveillance System (NDESS). All reported TBE cases are confirmed by laboratory serological and, if necessary, PCR tests, whereas the registered cases of LD are mainly based on the appearance of erythema migrans concurring with possible exposure of tick bite. Our work is the first comparative epidemiological and geographical information analysis of these 2 diseases together. The following demographic data from each individual case (703 TBE and 13,606 LD) recorded in the NDESS were used: Sex, age, the starting date and place of the onset of disease, and a short report from the affected person. The descriptive epidemiological analysis of incidence was carried out using directly standardized rates, and smoothed indirectly standardized incidence ratios were calculated by hierarchical Bayesian methods at the municipality level using a Rapid Inquiry Facility (RIF). The average yearly incidence rate of TBE was 0.64 per 100,000 inhabitants (range, 0.46-0.84) and of LD was 12.37 per 100,000 inhabitants (range, 9.9-18.1), with the highest incidence rates in 1998 for TBE and 2008 for LD. The most affected age groups were men between 15 and 59 years of age for TBE, and women between 45 and 64 years of age for LD. Seasonality, based on the starting date of the illness, was also characterized. Extended areas of high risk were identified in western and northern Hungary, illustrated on high-resolution (municipality level) maps. On the basis of our analysis, it is possible to associate areas and periods of high-risk with characteristics (sex, age, residence) of groups most affected by tick-borne diseases in Hungary.