SUMMARYPhenological models are considered key tools for the short-term planning of viticultural activities and long-term impact assessment of climate change. In the present study, statistical phenological models were developed for budburst (BUD), flowering (FLO) and veraison (VER) of 16 grapevine varieties (autochthonous and international) from the Portuguese wine-making regions of Douro, Lisbon and Vinhos Verdes. For model calibration, monthly averages of daily minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax) and mean (Tmean) temperatures were selected as potential regressors by a stepwise methodology. Significant predictors included Tmin in January–February–March for BUD, Tmax in March–April for FLO, and Tmin, Tmax and Tmean in March–July for VER. Developed models showed a high degree of accuracy after validation, representing 0·71 of total variance for BUD, 0·83 for FLO and 0·78 for VER. Model errors were in most cases < 5 days, outperforming classic growing degree-day models, including models based on optimized temperature thresholds for each variety. Applied to the future scenarios RCP4·5/8·5, projections indicate earlier phenophase onset and shorter interphases for all varieties. These changes may bring significant challenges to the Portuguese wine-making sector, highlighting the need for suitable adaptation/mitigation strategies, to ensure its future sustainability.

Projections of grapevine phenophases under future climate change scenarios are strategic decision support tools for viticulturists and wine producers. Several phenological models are tested for budburst, flowering, and veraison and for two main grapevine varieties (cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional) growing in the Douro Demarcated Region. Four forcing models (Growing degree-days, Richardson, Sigmoid, and Wang) and three dormancy models (Bidabe, Smoothed Utah and Chuine), with different parameterizations and combinations, are used. New datasets, combing phenology with weather station data, widespread over the Douro wine region, were used for this purpose. The eight best performing models and parameterizations were selected for each phenophase and variety, based on performance metrics. For both cultivars, results revealed moderate performances (0.4 < R2 < 0.7) for budburst, while high performances (R2 > 0.7) were found for flowering and veraison, particularly when Growing degree-days or Sigmoid models are used, respectively. Climate change projections were based on a two-member climate model ensemble from the EURO-CORDEX project under RCP4.5. Projections depicted an anticipation of phenophase timings by 6, 8 or 10–12 days until the end of the century for budburst, flowering, and veraison, respectively. The inter-model variability is of approximately 2–4 days for flowering and veraison and 4–6 days for budburst. These results establish grounds for the implementation of a decision support system for monitoring and short-term prediction of grapevine phenology, thus promoting a more efficient viticulture.

Phenological models applied to grapevines are valuable tools to assist in the decision of cultural practices related to winegrowers and winemakers. The two-parameter sigmoid phenological model was used to estimate the three main phenological stages of the grapevine development, i.e., budburst, flowering, and veraison. This model was calibrated and validated with phenology data for 51 grapevine varieties distributed in four wine regions in Portugal (Lisboa, Douro, Dão, and Vinhos Verdes). Meteorological data for the selected sites were also used. Hence, 153 model calibrations (51 varieties × 3 phenological stages) and corresponding parameter estimations were carried out based on an unprecedented comprehensive and systematized dataset of phenology in Portugal. For each phenological stage, the centroid of the estimated parameters was subsequently used, and three generalized sigmoid models (GSM) were constructed (budburst: d = −0.6, e = 8.6; flowering: d = −0.6, e = 13.7; veraison: d = −0.5, e = 13.2). Centroid parameters show high performance for approximately 90% of the varieties and can thereby be used instead of variety-specific parameters. Overall, the RMSE (root-mean-squared-error) is < 7 days, while the EF (efficiency coefficient) is > 0.5. Additionally, according to other studies, the predictive capacity of the models for budburst remains lower than for flowering or veraison. Furthermore, the F-forcing parameter (thermal accumulation) was evaluated for the Lisboa wine region, where the sample size is larger, and for the varieties with model efficiency equal to or greater than 0.5. A ranking and categorization of the varieties in early, intermediate, and late varieties was subsequently undertaken on the basis of F values. These results can be used to more accurately monitor and predict grapevine phenology during a given season, thus supporting decision making in the Portuguese wine sector.

1 The aims of this research performed in vineyards within the Douro Demarcated Region were to determine the species composition of vineyard epigaeic arthropods assemblages and to determine the influence of certain factors on their activity densities and diversity: (i) landscape composition in buffers (125, 250, 500 and 750 m) around each study site; (ii) adjacent vegetation; and (iii) vineyards' ground cover. Arthropods' were assessed using pitfall traps located inside the vineyards at three distances from adjacent vegetation (5, 50 and 100 m). 2 Activity densities and diversity increased from spring to summer for all the studied trophic groups (omnivores, detritivores, predators, phytophages), thus showing them to be affected by season. 3 The activity densities of phytophages were always higher at a distance of 5 m from the adjacent vegetation, which suggests that, although they could originate from these habitats, they do not move too far into the vineyard. Predators reported higher activity densities at 5 m during spring. Meanwhile, in summer, no significant differences were found with the increasing distance from the edge. This result suggests that these habitats could serve both as a refuge and a hibernation habitat, from which predators could colonize the vineyard.

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This study, held in vineyards from Douro Demarcated Region, aimed to: a) identify the communities and main functional groups of spiders and ants; b) check patterns of co-occurrence between the two communities; and c) evaluate the impact of ground cover and adjacent non-crop habitats in the proximity of vineyards, on the two communities. Samplings were done using pitfall trapping. Twenty species of ants and 44 species of spiders were identified, which included respectively three and nine Iberian endemic species. Aphaenogaster gibbosa (Latreille 1798), Aphaenogaster iberica Emery 1908, Cataglyphis hispanica (Emery 1906), Cataglyphis iberica (Emery 1906), Messor barbarus (L. 1767) and Tapinoma nigerrimum (Nylander 1856) totalized 71.21% of ants. Alopecosa albofasciata (Brullé 1832), Callilepis concolor Simon 1914, Eratigena feminea Simon 1870, Zodarion alacre (Simon 1870) and Zodarion styliferum (Simon 1870) accounted for 38% of spiders. Abundance of both ant-mimicking and ant-eating spiders were positively correlated with Formicinae, while only ant-eating spiders showed positive correlation with Myrmicinae ants. All genera/ species of ant-associated spider were associated with one or more genera/ specie of ants. The abundance of specialist spiders was higher in areas where abundance of ants was also higher. Sheet web weavers spiders were found to be positively correlated with the percentage of ground cover. The present study a) stresses that vineyard agroecosystem support a rich assemblage of ants and spiders evincing that wine production and species conservation is possible and b) the co-occurrence between some species of this two groups is not determined by random patterns.

In this work, bioclimatic parameters and indices relevant to the grapevine are estimated for the years 2000 (recent-pat), 2049 (medium-term future) and 2097 (long-term future), based on very high resolution (1 km × 1 km) MPI-WRF RCP8.5 climate simulations. The selected parameters and indices are the mean temperature during the grapevine growing season period (April to October, Tgs), the cumulative rainfall during the grapevine growing season period (Pgs), the Winkler index (WI), the Huglin heliothermic index (HI), the night cold index (CI) and the dryness index (DI). In general, a significant increase in mean temperature during the grapevine growing season period is observed, together with a significant decrease in precipitation. The recent-past WI is associated with the production of high-quality wines; the higher values predicted for the future represent intensive production of wines of intermediate quality. The HI shows the passage of a grapevine growing region considered as temperate-warm to a warm category of higher helio-thermicity. The recent-past CI indicates very cool conditions (associated with quality wines), while in the future there is a tendency for temperate or warmer nights. Finally, DI indicates an increase in water stress considered already high under the recent-past climate conditions. These results point to an increased climatic stress on the Douro region wine production and increased vulnerability of its vine varieties, providing evidence to support strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.