Ocean warming and acidification are threatening marine ecosystems. In marine animals, acidification is thought to enhance ion regulatory costs and thereby baseline energy demand, while elevated temperature also increases baseline metabolic rate. Here we investigated standard metabolic rates (SMR) and plasma parameters of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) after 3–4 weeks of exposure to ambient and future PCO2 levels (550, 1200 and 2200 µatm) and at two temperatures (10, 18 °C). In vivo branchial ion regulatory costs were studied in isolated, perfused gill preparations. Animals reared at 18 °C responded to increasing CO2 by elevating SMR, in contrast to specimens at 10 °C. Isolated gills at 10 °C and elevated PCO2 (≥1200 µatm) displayed increased soft tissue mass, in parallel to increased gill oxygen demand, indicating an increased fraction of gill in whole animal energy budget. Altered gill size was not found at 18 °C, where a shift in the use of ion regulation mechanisms occurred towards enhanced Na+/H+-exchange and HCO3− transport at high PCO2 (2200 µatm), paralleled by higher Na+/K+-ATPase activities. This shift did not affect total gill energy consumption leaving whole animal energy budget unaffected. Higher Na+/K+-ATPase activities in the warmth might have compensated for enhanced branchial permeability and led to reduced plasma Na+ and/or Cl− concentrations and slightly lowered osmolalities seen at 18 °C and 550 or 2200 µatm PCO2 in vivo. Overall, the gill as a key ion regulation organ seems to be highly effective in supporting the resilience of cod to effects of ocean warming and acidification.

Marine teleost fish sustain compensation of extracellular pH after exposure to hypercapnia by means of efficient ion and acid-base regulation. Elevated rates of ion and acid-base regulation under hypercapnia may be stimulated further by elevated temperature. Here, we characterized the regulation of transepithelial ion transporters (NKCC1, NBC1, SLC26A6, NHE1 and 2) and ATPases (Na(+)/K(+) ATPase and V-type H(+) ATPase) in gills of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) after 4 weeks of exposure to ambient and future PCO2 levels (550 μatm, 1200 μatm, 2200 μatm) at optimum (10 °C) and summer maximum temperature (18 °C), respectively. Gene expression of most branchial ion transporters revealed temperature- and dose-dependent responses to elevated PCO2. Transcriptional regulation resulted in stable protein expression at 10 °C, whereas expression of most transport proteins increased at medium PCO2 and 18 °C. mRNA and protein expression of distinct ion transport proteins were closely co-regulated, substantiating cellular functional relationships. Na(+)/K(+) ATPase capacities were PCO2 independent, but increased with acclimation temperature, whereas H(+) ATPase capacities were thermally compensated but decreased at medium PCO2 and 10 °C. When functional capacities of branchial ATPases were compared with mitochondrial F1Fo ATP-synthase strong correlations of F1Fo ATP-synthase and ATPase capacities generally indicate close coordination of branchial aerobic ATP demand and supply. Our data indicate physiological plasticity in the gills of cod to adjust to a warming, acidifying ocean within limits. In light of the interacting and non-linear, dose-dependent effects of both climate factors the role of these mechanisms in shaping resilience under climate change remains to be explored.

It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks. This paper introduces exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, medium- and long-term developments in socio-political drivers may be just as important in determining profits, revenues and prospects in the aquaculture and fisheries industries as physical drivers such as long-term climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures were developed, based partly on the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) framework and partly on the newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). ‘Off the shelf’ narrative material as well as quantitative outputs were ‘borrowed’ from earlier frameworks but supplemented with material generated through in-depth stakeholder workshops involving industry and policy makers. Workshop participants were tasked to outline how they thought their sector might look under the four future worlds and, in particular, to make use of the PESTEL conceptual framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) as an aide memoire to help define the scope of each scenario. This work was carried out under the auspices of the EU Horizon 2020 project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources), and for each ‘CERES scenario’ (World Markets, National Enterprise, Global Sustainability and Local Stewardship), additional quantitative outputs were generated, including projections of future fuel and fish prices, using the MAGNET (Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool) modeling framework. In developing and applying the CERES scenarios, we have demonstrated that the basic architecture is sufficiently flexible to be used at a wide diversity of scales. We urge the climate science community to adopt a similar scenarios framework, based around SSPs, to facilitate global cross-comparison of fisheries and aquaculture model outputs more broadly and to harmonize communication regarding potential future bioeconomic impacts of climate change.

Kreiss et al. Future Socio-Political Scenarios Aquaculture returns, and marketing options as opposed to the direct effect of climate-driven changes in the environment. These results can inform adaptation planning by the European aquaculture sector. Moreover, applying consistent scenarios including societal and economic dimensions, facilitates regional to global comparisons of adaptation advice both within and across Blue Growth sectors.

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Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and widespread direct consequences for the European marine ecosystems and subsequently for the European fishery sector. Additionally, many socio-economic and political factors linked to climate change scenarios will impact the future development of fishing industries. Robust projection modeling of bioeconomic consequences of climate change on the European fishing sector must identify all these factors and their potential future interaction. In this study, four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources) were operationalized and used in model projections of marine wild capture fisheries. Four CERES scenarios (“World Markets,” “National Enterprise,” “Global Sustainability” and “Local Stewardship”) were based on the IPCC framework of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). For each of these scenarios, a set of quantitative outputs was generated to allow projections of bio-economic impacts to mid-century (2050) on wild-capture fisheries operating in different European regions. Specifically, projections accounted for future changes in fisheries management targets, access regulations, international agreements, fish and fuel prices, technological developments and marine spatial planning. This study thoroughly describes the elements of these four fisheries scenarios and demonstrates an example of the “regionalization” of these scenarios by summarizing how they were applied to the North Sea flatfish fishery. Bioeconomic projections highlight the importance of future developments in fuel and fish price development to the viability of that and other fisheries. Adapting these scenarios for use in other models and regions outside the 10 European fisheries examined in CERES would be highly beneficial by allowing direct comparison of the bioeconomic risks and opportunities posed by climate change.

CO2-driven seawater acidification has been demonstrated to enhance intestinal bicarbonate secretion rates in teleosts, leading to an increased release of CaCO3 under simulated ocean acidification scenarios. In this study, we investigated if increasing CO2 levels stimulate the intestinal acid–base regulatory machinery of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and whether temperatures at the upper limit of thermal tolerance stimulate or counteract ion regulatory capacities. Juvenile G. morhua were acclimated for 4 weeks to three CO2 levels (550, 1200, and 2200 μatm) covering present and near-future natural variability, at optimum (10°C) and summer maximum temperature (18°C), respectively. Immunohistochemical analyses revealed the subcellular localization of ion transporters, including Na+/K+-ATPase (NKA), Na+/H+-exchanger 3 (NHE3), Na+/HCO3− cotransporter (NBC1), pendrin-like Cl−/HCO3− exchanger (SLC26a6), V-type H+-ATPase subunit a (VHA), and Cl− channel 3 (CLC3) in epithelial cells of the anterior intestine. At 10°C, proteins and mRNA were generally up-regulated for most transporters in the intestinal epithelium after acclimation to higher CO2 levels. This supports recent findings demonstrating increased intestinal HCO3− secretion rates in response to CO2 induced seawater acidification. At 18°C, mRNA expression and protein concentrations of most ion transporters remained unchanged or were even decreased, suggesting thermal compensation. This response may be energetically favorable to retain blood HCO3− levels to stabilize pHe, but may negatively affect intestinal salt and water resorption of marine teleosts in future oceans.