This article introduces a new dyadic dataset measuring formal diplomatic relations. These data were coded from the Europa World Yearbook annually from 1960 to 2013 for 18,317 unique country dyads, and include the level of diplomatic representation (whether the diplomatic connection is focused on a single or multiple target countries) as well as a summary measure that captures both directed and shared dyadic level of representation. We compare the new data with data gathered previously by the Correlates of War project and find significant specific discrepancies in the period between 1970 and 1985. We then test the new data by replicating Neumayer (2008) generally validating those findings: distance, power, and ideological affinity each matter when sending and receiving formal diplomatic relations. However, using the new annual diplomatic representation data, we demonstrate a different relationship between power, affinity, and probability of diplomatic connection: dyadic foreign policy affinity is a more important driver of diplomatic exchange if both the sending and receiving countries have average relative material capabilities and matters little if one or both countries in the dyad are very powerful or very weak relative to previous model results.
Sustainable development goal 2 aims to end hunger in all its forms by 2030, achieved through a joint policy strategy on raising food production and food access. Most model-based projections on undernourishment towards 2050 focus on sustainably producing enough food, rather than on ending hunger. We compare policy strategies on food supply and food access to lower undernourishment in 2040 for 151 countries. Here, we show that in a Business-as-Usual scenario (BaU) 3.3% of the world population is undernourished by 2040. We develop 27 regional policy target-scenarios on Producing More Food (PMF), Raising average Caloric Consumption (RCC) and within-country Equal Food Distribution (EFD). RCC lowers undernourishment to 2.2%, followed by EFD (2.6%) and PMF (2.7%). For world regions results are mixed, with either RCC or EFD generating the strongest reduction in undernourishment. For individual countries, 90 countries achieve SDG2 in 2040 in the BaU-scenario. In PMF, 18 additional countries achieve SDG2, versus 30 countries in EFD and 38 countries in RCC. Both food supply and food access policy strategies can achieve SDG2, but raising food access results in greater progress at all scales. Long-term food security studies should move beyond environmentally sustainable agricultural policy strategies, as socio-economic policies on food access and inequality policies will determine the future of food security.
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