Measuring and Forecasting the Rise of China: Reality over Image

Moyer, Jonathan D.; Meisel, Collin J.; Matthews, Austin S.

doi:10.1080/10670564.2022.2071879

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…The IFs model 55 is an integrated assessment tool that includes the following dynamically interconnected systems: agriculture 56 , climate 57 , 58 , conflict 59 , demographics 55 , economics 60 , 61 , education 62 , energy 63 , gender 64 , governance 65 , health 66 – 68 , infrastructure 69 , international relations 70 , 71 , poverty 53 , 72 , and technology 73 . IFs can be used to explore broad questions of integrated development within and across systems and forecasts variables for 186 countries from 2017 to 2100.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions

Moyer

2023

Sci Rep

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Degrowth advocates argue for structural transformations in how economies and societies prioritize material wealth accumulation to reduce the negative effects of future anthropogenic climate change. Degrowth proponents argue that human economic activity could be lessened, and societies transformed to prioritize improved wellbeing, reducing the threat of climate change. This paper explores implications of alternative patterns of economic growth with transformational policy pathways (i.e., redistribution) to assess what effects economic growth and broader policies have on changing patterns of human development across both the Global North and South. Using the International Futures model, this article shows that negative growth and societal transformations in the Global North are possible without dramatically damaging long-term global socioeconomic development, though these interventions do not solve the global climate crisis, reducing future cumulative carbon emissions by 10.5% through 2100. On the other hand, a global negative growth scenario will significantly reduce future cumulative carbon emissions (45%) but also dramatically undermines the pursuit of global development goals, like the elimination of poverty. Even with global policies that significantly increase cash transfers to the poor and retired, dramatically improve income inequality, and eliminate military spending, the Global Negative Growth Big Push scenario leads to an increase of 15 percentage points in global extreme poverty by 2100.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions

Moyer

2023

Sci Rep

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“…IFs is an integrated assessment modeling platform with representation of 188 countries and capability to forecast out to 2100. It features numerous endogenized and interconnected sub-models with coverage of the following systems: agriculture [26], economics, education [27], energy, environment [28], demographics, governance [29,30], health [31], infrastructure [32], international politics [33], and technology. IFs is open-source and is free to use online or to download for offline use.…”

Section: International Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Current Path uses exogenously imposed GDP growth rate data and projections from the latest version of the IMF's World Economic Outlook through to 2025 [40]. The Current Path in IFs has been used widely in academic and policy-oriented work to describe the path that the world is currently on [28,30,33].…”

Section: Current Pathmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Development Goal Attainment in the Wake of COVID-19: Simulating an Ambitious Policy Push

Hanna,

Hughes,

Irfan

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the world was not on course to meet key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger). Some significant degree of additional effort was needed before the pandemic, and the challenge is now greater. Analyzing the prospects for meeting these goals requires attention to the combined effects of the pandemic and such additional impetus. This article assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on progress toward the SDGs and explores strategies to recover and accelerate development. Utilizing the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system and recognizing the near impossibility of meeting the goals by 2030, three scenarios are examined through to 2050: A pre-COVID-19 trajectory (No COVID-19), the current path influenced by the pandemic (Current Path), and a transformative SDG-focused approach prioritizing key policy strategies to accelerate outcomes (SDG Push). The pandemic led to a rise in extreme poverty and hunger, with recovery projected to be slow. The SDG Push scenario effectively addresses this, surpassing the Current Path and achieving significant global improvements in poverty, malnutrition, and human development by 2050 even relative to the No COVID-19 path. The findings emphasize the need for integrated, transformative actions to propel sustainable development.

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“…However, China subsequently surpassed the United States regarding the total number of foreign embassies. According to the Current Path scenario, Chinese foreign embassies are projected to maintain their current trajectory and surpass the number of foreign embassies held by the United States by 2050-2059, with an extra 13 embassies (Moyer et al, 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Joe Biden’s foreign policy in dealing with China

Zaki,

Sahide

2023

Multidiscip. Rev.

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The purpose of this study is to examine the foreign policy of the Joe Biden era in dealing with China. The authors use qualitative research, data sources from Web, Scopus, Taylor, and documents from the United States Department of State. The author uses a supporting application, namely, VOS Viewer. After that, it is analyzed using the theory of liberalism in tracing Joe Biden's foreign policy. Therefore, this article resulted in Joe Biden implementing his "Foreign Policy for the Middle Class" strategy. Joe Biden has revived EU-US dialog and coordinated sanctions against Chinese officials in response to human rights abuses in Xinjiang. The US uses a strategic approach in industrial planning to maintain competitiveness with China. Biden's first trade policy action involved an executive order regarding government procurement. Its military policy focuses on multilateral action to limit Chinese operations and reduce their impact on collaboration with allies.

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Measuring and Forecasting the Rise of China: Reality over Image

Cited by 7 publications

References 0 publications

Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions

Modeling transformational policy pathways on low growth and negative growth scenarios to assess impacts on socioeconomic development and carbon emissions

Sustainable Development Goal Attainment in the Wake of COVID-19: Simulating an Ambitious Policy Push

Joe Biden’s foreign policy in dealing with China

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