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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractThis paper presents a classical model of economic growth which incorporates class conflict and induced technological change to show how demographic changes can affect future income distribution and production relations in industrialized countries. Specifically, I use an extended real wage Phillips curve to account for the effects of a social security tax on income distribution and therefore on capital accumulation and employment. In this framework output growth is determined from the supply side by available savings. Analytical and simulation results indicate that the sustainability of an economy with fast population aging over transient paths hinges upon improvements in labor productivity, hence, the specific mechanism of technical progress in place.Keywords: Population aging; Social security tax; Endogenous technical change JEL Classification: E62; E24; O30 * I thank Duncan K. Foley, Ken Jameson, Korkut Erturk, Daniele Tavani, Lance Taylor, Rudi von Arnim, Matias Vernengo and Norm Waitzman for their comments on earlier drafts of this paper. I would also like to acknowledge Duncan K. Foley's suggestions on key parts of the literature on which this paper draws. Social Security Tax and Endogenous Technical Change in an Economy with an Aging PopulationCodrina Rada * February 7, 2011Abstract This paper presents a classical model of economic growth which incorporates class conflict and induced technological change to show how demographic changes can affect future income distribution and production relations in industrialized countries. Specifically, I use an extended real wage Phillips curve to account for the effects of a social security tax on income distribution and therefore on capital accumulation and employment. In this framework output growth is determined from the supply side by available savings. Analytical and simulation results indicate that the sustainability of an economy with fast population aging over transient paths hinges upon improvements in labor productivity, hence, the specific mechanism of technical progress in place.

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This paper surveys current debates on the distributive cycle. The literature builds on R.M. Goodwin' s seminal 1967 chapter titled " A growth cycle." We review theoretical motivations for the distributive cycle, which, despite signif-icant differences, all imply that macroeconomic activity leads the labor share in a counter-clockwise cycle in the activity-labor share plane. Subsequently, we summarize and update evidence on the existence of a distributive cycle, with a focus on the post-war US macroeconomy. We analyze activity and labor share series and their interaction in the frequency domain, and also employ stan-dard vector autoregressions. Results confirm the distributive cycle for the US post-war period. We contextualize results vis-à-vis current debates: (1) we consider a financial cycle, to rebut the theoretical possibility of " pseudo-Goodwin" cycles, (2) demonstrate that a suppressed labor share and stagnation are com-patible with short run Goodwin cycles, and argue that this link presents the way forward for research on secular stagnation.

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