Atmospheric methane emissions from active natural gas production sites in normal operation were quantified using an inverse Gaussian method (EPA's OTM 33a) in four major U.S. basins/plays: Upper Green River (UGR, Wyoming), Denver-Julesburg (DJ, Colorado), Uintah (Utah), and Fayetteville (FV, Arkansas). In DJ, Uintah, and FV, 72-83% of total measured emissions were from 20% of the well pads, while in UGR the highest 20% of emitting well pads only contributed 54% of total emissions. The total mass of methane emitted as a percent of gross methane produced, termed throughput-normalized methane average (TNMA) and determined by bootstrapping measurements from each basin, varied widely between basins and was (95% CI): 0.09% (0.05-0.15%) in FV, 0.18% (0.12-0.29%) in UGR, 2.1% (1.1-3.9%) in DJ, and 2.8% (1.0-8.6%) in Uintah. Overall, wet-gas basins (UGR, DJ, Uintah) had higher TNMA emissions than the dry-gas FV at all ranges of production per well pad. Among wet basins, TNMA emissions had a strong negative correlation with average gas production per well pad, suggesting that consolidation of operations onto single pads may reduce normalized emissions (average number of wells per pad is 5.3 in UGR versus 1.3 in Uintah and 2.8 in DJ).

SignificanceOur results demonstrate that access to high-resolution spatiotemporal activity data and multiscale, contemporaneous measurements is critical to understanding oil- and gas-related methane emissions. Careful consideration of all factors influencing methane emissions—including temporal variation—is necessary in scientific and policy discussions to develop effective strategies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas infrastructure.

Divergence in recent oil and gas related methane emission estimates between aircraft studies (basin total for a midday window) and emissions inventories (annualized regional and national statistics) indicate the need for better understanding the experimental design, including temporal and spatial alignment and interpretation of results. Our aircraft-based methane emission estimates in a major U.S. shale gas basin resolved from west to east show (i) similar spatial distributions for 2 days, (ii) strong spatial correlations with reported NG production (R = 0.75) and active gas well pad count (R = 0.81), and (iii) 2× higher emissions in the western half (normalized by gas production) despite relatively homogeneous dry gas and well characteristics. Operator reported hourly activity data show that midday episodic emissions from manual liquid unloadings (a routine operation in this basin and elsewhere) could explain ∼1/3 of the total emissions detected midday by the aircraft and ∼2/3 of the west-east difference in emissions. The 22% emission difference between both days further emphasizes that episodic sources can substantially impact midday methane emissions and that aircraft may detect daily peak emissions rather than daily averages that are generally employed in emissions inventories. While the aircraft approach is valid, quantitative, and independent, our study sheds new light on the interpretation of previous basin scale aircraft studies, and provides an improved mechanistic understanding of oil and gas related methane emissions.

Methane, a key component of natural gas, is a potent greenhouse gas. A key feature of recent methane mitigation policies is the use of periodic leak detection surveys, typically done with optical gas imaging (OGI) technologies. The most common OGI technology is an infrared camera. In this work, we experimentally develop detection probability curves for OGI-based methane leak detection under different environmental and imaging conditions. Controlled single blind leak detection tests show that the median detection limit (50% detection likelihood) for FLIR-camera based OGI technology is about 20 g CH/h at an imaging distance of 6 m, an order of magnitude higher than previously reported estimates of 1.4 g CH/h. Furthermore, we show that median and 90% detection likelihood limit follows a power-law relationship with imaging distance. Finally, we demonstrate that real-world marginal effectiveness of methane mitigation through periodic surveys approaches zero as leak detection sensitivity improves. For example, a median detection limit of 100 g CH/h is sufficient to detect the maximum amount of leakage that is possible through periodic surveys. Policy makers should take note of these limits while designing equivalence metrics for next-generation leak detection technologies that can trade sensitivity for cost without affecting mitigation priorities.

Introduction The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on global warming of 1.5°C highlighted the importance of reducing short-lived greenhouse gases like methane (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018). Methane, a major component of natural gas, has a global warming potential that is 36 times that of carbon dioxide over a 100-year period (Myhre, et al., 2013), and even higher over shorter time periods (Etminan, Myhre, Highwood, & Shine, 2016). Furthermore, methane emissions contribute to sea-level rise over much longer timescales than their atmospheric lifetimes (Zickfeld, Solomon, & Gilford, 2017). These consequences are troubling given that official methane emissions inventory in the US and Canada have been found to be systematically underestimated (Alvarez, et al.,

This study presents the results of a campaign that estimated methane emissions at 268 gas production facilities in the Fayetteville shale gas play using onsite measurements (261 facilities) and two downwind methods -the dual tracer flux ratio method (Tracer Facility Estimate -TFE, 17 facilities) and the EPA Other Test Method 33a (OTM33A Facility Estimate -OFE, 50 facilities). A study onsite estimate (SOE) for each facility was developed by combining direct measurements and simulation of unmeasured emission sources, using operator activity data and emission data from literature. The SOE spans 0-403 kg/h and simulated methane emissions from liquid unloadings account for 88% of total emissions estimated by the SOE, with 76% (95% CI [51%-92%]) contributed by liquid unloading at two facilities. TFE and SOE show overlapping 95% CI between individual estimates at 15 of 16 (94%) facilities where the measurements were paired, while OFE and SOE show overlapping 95% CI between individual estimates at 28 of 43 (65%) facilities. However, variance-weighted least-squares (VWLS) regressions performed on sets of paired estimates indicate statistically significant differences between methods. The SOE represents a lower bound of emissions at facilities where onsite direct measurements of continuously emitting sources are the primary contributor to the SOE, a sub-selection of facilities which minimizes expected inter-method differences for intermittent pneumatic controllers and the impact of episodically-emitting unloadings. At 9 such facilities, VWLS indicates that TFE estimates systematically higher emissions than SOE (TFE-to-SOE ratio = 1.6, 95% CI [1.2 to 2.1]). At 20 such facilities, VWLS indicates that OFE estimates systematically lower emissions than SOE (OFE-to-SOE ratio of 0.41 [0.26 to 0.90]). Given that SOE at these facilities is a lower limit on emissions, these results indicate that OFE is likely a less accurate method than SOE or TFE for this type of facility.

Optical gas imaging (OGI) is a commonly utilized leak detection method in the upstream and midstream sectors of the U.S. natural gas industry. This study characterized the detection efficacy of OGI surveyors, using their own cameras and protocols, with controlled releases in an 8-acre outdoor facility that closely resembles upstream natural gas field operations. Professional surveyors from 16 oil and gas companies and 8 regulatory agencies participated, completing 488 tests over a 10 month period. Detection rates were significantly lower than prior studies focused on camera performance. The leak size required to achieve a 90% probability-of-detection in this study is an order-of-magnitude larger than prior studies. Study results indicate that OGI survey experience significantly impacts leak detection rate: Surveyors from operators/contractors who had surveyed more than 551 sites prior to testing detected 1.7 (1.5–1.8) times more leaks than surveyors who had completed fewer surveys. Highly experienced surveyors adjust their survey speed, examine components from multiple viewpoints, and make other adjustments that improve their leak detection rate, indicating that modifications of survey protocols and targeted training could improve leak detection rates overall.

Methane (CH 4 ) emission rates from a sample of natural gas facilities across industry sectors were quantified using the dual tracer flux ratio methodology. Measurements were conducted in study areas within the Fayetteville shale play, Arkansas (FV, Sept-Oct 2015, 53 facilities), and the Denver-Julesburg basin, Colorado, (DJ, Nov 2014, 21 facilities). Distributions of methane emission rates at facilities by type are computed and statistically compared with results that cover broader geographic regions in the US (Allen et al., 2013. DJ gathering station emission rates (kg CH 4 hr -1 ) are lower, while FV gathering and production sites are statistically indistinguishable as compared to these multi-basin results. However, FV gathering station throughput-normalized emissions are statistically lower than multi-basin results (0.19% vs. 0.44%). This implies that the FV gathering sector is emitting less per unit of gas throughput than would be expected from the multi-basin distribution alone. The most common emission rate (i.e. mode of the distribution) for facilities in this study is 40 kg CH 4 hr -1 for FV gathering stations, 1.0 kg CH 4 hr -1 for FV production pads, and 11 kg CH 4 hr -1 for DJ gathering stations. The importance of study design is discussed, including the benefits of site access and data sharing with industry and of a scientist dedicated to measurement coordination and site choice under evolving wind conditions.