Users who downloaded this article also downloaded: (2016),"Foresight and the third mission of universities: the case for innovation system foresight", foresight, Vol. 18 Iss 1 pp. 24-40 http://dx. Access to this document was granted through an Emerald subscription provided by emerald-srm:573577 [] For AuthorsIf you would like to write for this, or any other Emerald publication, then please use our Emerald for Authors service information about how to choose which publication to write for and submission guidelines are available for all. Please visit www.emeraldinsight.com/authors for more information. About Emerald www.emeraldinsight.comEmerald is a global publisher linking research and practice to the benefit of society. The company manages a portfolio of more than 290 journals and over 2,350 books and book series volumes, as well as providing an extensive range of online products and additional customer resources and services.Emerald is both COUNTER 4 and TRANSFER compliant. The organization is a partner of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and also works with Portico and the LOCKSS initiative for digital archive preservation. AbstractPurpose -This paper aims to propose a model, based on strategic simulation and scenario planning, to improve the decision-making process in the Brazilian defence area. Design/methodology/approach -Participants are disposed in three levels: decision-makers teamwhich goes beyond the Ministry of Defence (and military services) alone and includes other representatives of the executive and legislative branches; political and strategic advisory team -civilian representatives with a broad understanding of the national and international contexts that can contribute to developing insights and shaping the forces that may contribute to the nation's future; and experts database-experts in fields of interest to national defence, comprising representatives of several sectors and broad areas of knowledge, including scholars, scientists, politicians, military, industry, among others.Findings -The planning and preparation of national defence strategies require a long-term approach, which is multidisciplinary, participatory and contextualized to the geopolitical and institutional frames of the country. Research limitations/implications -However, despite many policy papers intentions, defence issues have always been considered a matter for the military arena due to the country's cultural background.Practical/implications -Because decisions about defence have long-range impacts and political implications, policy-makers should shape them bearing in mind a complex and politically shared foresight process. Social/implications -This proposed planning process enables a participatory engagement with some civil organizations and individuals as well as amplifies their commitment in national defence issues. Originality/value -The proposal is innovative in South America, considering that it encompasses integrated simulations on participatory foresight processes as well as broadened the civilian-military...
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Considering the presence of the nuclear issue in the main international forum and agenda as well as the increase in the visibility of the Brazilian Navy's Strategic Projects in the nuclear area, it is necessary to discuss the long-term aspects of this sector of capital importance for Brazil, which is likely to shape the country's development path in the next decades. This paper aims to propose a reflection on future environments concerning nuclear energy in which organs and sectors of Brazilian society (including Brazilian Navy) will act primarily in areas that have direct or indirect implications for maritime power and its interconnections with national development and international relations. This proposal includes discussing the prospective methods that will allow the reflection on the benefits of nuclear technology for Brazil and the international community, the technological challenges that are still facing for its effective implementation, and the possible revisions or redefinitions of formats for non-proliferation agreements. Issues to be addressed include the expansion of the uses of nuclear power and benefits can it provide to the future international community and to the maritime power; the changes that may occur in non-proliferation agreements. In environments of uncertainty and complexities, such as the nuclear area, the use of this methodology stimulates the interaction among the different involved parts, with its cultural, economic and social vision, taking part in defining the possible scenarios. Planners and leaders can gain exceptional ability to anticipate the actions that can drive the real world and produce potent insights.
The world is struggling with the widely spread effects of the virus Covid-19. The damage until now took more than a million people in less than a year, which is more than a considerably number of small wars together. The purpose of this article is to identify signs, uncertainties and trends from future studies that have been written in the last few months by government agencies, large private companies, academic institutions and worldwide organizations about the influence of the pandemic in areas such as economy, international relations, geopolitics, environment, technology and society in order to assess those of main potential impacts for national defense and international security. The methodology relied on semantic analysis application based on 55 selected futures studies (reports, papers, books etc.) written in three largely spoken languages regarding both Covid-19 and prospective scenarios. The analysis focus on the complex tangle between technology and society, as well as, between politics and economy. The results are summarized in a list of variables of trend or uncertainties followed by some possible impacts on how they can interact or affect the issue. This paper points out the necessity to look over this pandemic horizon with contributions from different government departments, think tanks, academics and non- governmental organizations to short the time-lapse between the strategic formulation and its results.
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