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[1] We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead-Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S-wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.

In many young orogens of the Mediterranean region, Quaternary tectonics and regional uplift are traditionally considered strictly correlated, but few data are actually available for precise calculations of uplift rates. Such quantitative studies are needed to define the relationships between local faulting and large-scale uplift, and to formulate correct hypotheses on the geodynamic scenario in which the regional raising occurred. In addition, data about burial depths of sediments or tectonic loadings suffered by sedimentary and low-grade metamorphic rocks are essential for comparisons with the uplift rates obtained in the same areas. Such comparisons between quite different data sources improve the comprehension and choice of the most reliable mechanism responsible for the regional uplift and exhumation. Uplift rates have been calculated for a large sector of the Lucanian Apennine (axial zone of the southern Italian Apennines), and also reviewed for the Calabrian arc (southern termination of the Italian peninsula), using both geomorphological observations (elevation values, ages, and arrangement of depositional and erosional land surfaces and other morphotectonic indicators) and stratigraphical and structural data (sea-level related facies, base levels, fault kinematics, and offset estimations). Such data have been compared with those derived from clay mineralogy of Mesozoic pelagic deposits (Lagonegro units), outcropping in the same sector of the chain, which give information on burial depths. The values of the Quaternary uplift rates of the southern Apennines axial zone vary from a minimum of 0.2 mm/yr near the town of Potenza to a maximum of ~1.2-1.3 mm/yr in Agri high valley, a severely deformed Quaternary intermontane basin, still tectonically active, in the Pollino Mountains, a carbonate ridge with elevation up to 2200 m above sea level (asl); intermediate values (0.5–0.7 mm/yr) have been calculated for the other studied areas. The erosion rate from a key area of the Lucanian Apennine, obtained from both quantitative geomorphic analysis and missing volumes calculations on a catchment basin as wide as 150 km2, has been estimated at 0.2 mm/yr for the middle Pleistocene to Holocene time span. Since in the upper part of that chronological interval erosion and uplift rates match well, the axial-zone landscape could have reached a fl ux steady-state during the late Pleistocene. Using geomorphological features and late Pliocene to Pleistocene deposits involved in the genesis of erosional and depositional land surfaces, similar rates (≈0.6 mm/yr) have been obtained for a quite large time span (~2 m.y.) in the Melandro basin and adjacent Maddalena Mountains. Therefore, during the last 2 m.y., the total uplift amount of the axial zone of the Lucanian Apennine is ~1.2–1.3 km, with local peaks of 1.5 km. On the other hand, the Mesozoic pelagic units experienced tectonic loading\ud of 4–5 km, as estimated by means of illite crystallinity (in the range 0.6–1.1 Δ°2θ), percentage of illitic layers in illite/smectite mixed...

The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) is deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, November 23, MS 6.9 Campania–Lucania earthquake. It is set up by 28 stations and covers an area of about 100 × 70 km2. Each site is equipped with a 1-g full-scale accelerometer and a short period velocimeter. Due to its design characteristics, i.e., the wide dynamic range and the high density of stations, the ISNet network is mainly devoted to estimating in real-time the earthquake location and magnitude from low- to high- magnitude events, and to providing ground-motion parameters values so to get some insights about the ground shaking expected. Moreover, the availability of highquality of data allows studying the source processes related to the seismogenetic structures in the area. The network layout, the data communication system and protocols and the main instrumental features are described in the paper. The data analysis is managed by Earthworm software package that also provides the earthquake location while custom software has been developed for real-time computation of the source parameters and shaking maps. Technical details about these procedures are given in the article. The data collected at the ISNet stations are available upon request

When accompanied by appropriate training and preparedness of a population, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are effective and viable tools for the real-time reduction of societal exposure to seismic events in metropolitan areas. The Italian Accelerometric Network, RAN, which consists of about 500 stations installed over all the active seismic zones, as well as many cities and strategic infrastructures in Italy, has the potential to serve as a nationwide early warning system. In this work, we present a feasibility study for a nationwide EEWS in Italy obtained by the integration of the RAN and the software platform PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). The performance of the RAN-PRESTo EEWS is first assessed by testing it on real strong motion recordings of 40 of the largest earthquakes that have occurred during the last 10 years in Italy. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to regions that did not experience earthquakes by considering a nationwide grid of synthetic sources capable of generating Gutenberg-Richter sequences corresponding to the one adopted by the seismic hazard map of the Italian territory. Our results indicate that the RAN-PRESTo EEWS could theoretically provide for higher seismic hazard areas reliable alert messages within about 5 to 10 s and maximum lead times of about 25 s. In case of large events (M > 6.5), this amount of lead time would be sufficient for taking basic protective measures (e.g., duck and cover, move away from windows or equipment) in tens to hundreds of municipalities affected by large ground shaking.

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Age constraints of geomorphological markers and consequent estimates of long-to short-term denudation rates from southern Italy are given here. Geomorphic analysis of the valley of the Tanagro River combined with apatite fission track data and radiometric dating provided useful information on the ages and evolution of some significant morphotectonic markers such as regional planated landscapes, erosional land surfaces and fluvial terraces. Reconstruction of paleotopography and estimation of the eroded volumes were perfomed starting from the plano-altimetric distribution of several orders of erosional land surfaces surveyed in the study area. Additional data about denudation rates related to the recent and/or active geomorphological system have been obtained by estimating the amount of suspended sediment yield at the outlet of some catchments using empirical relationships based on the hierarchical arrangement of the drainage network. Denudation rates obtained through these methods have been compared with the sedimentation rates calculated for two adjacent basins (the Pantano di San Gregorio and the Vallo di Diano), on the basis of published tephrochronological constraints. These rates have also been compared with those calculated for the historical sediment accumulation in a small catchment located to the north of the study area, with long-term exhumation data from thermochronometry, and with uplift rates from the study area. Long-and short-term denudation rates are included between 0.1 and 0.2 mm/yr, in good agreement with regional data and long-term sedimentation rates from the Vallo di Diano and the Pantano di San Gregorio Magno basins. On the other hand, higher values of exhumation rates from thermochronometry suggest the existence of past erosional processes faster than the recent and present-day exogenic dismantling. Finally, the comparison between uplift and denudation rates indicates that the fluvial erosion did not match the tectonic uplift during the Quaternary in this sector of the chain. The axial zone of the southern Apennines should therefore be regarded as a landscape in conditions of geomorphological disequilibrium.

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