Next generation radio experiments such as LOFAR, HERA and SKA are expected to probe the Epoch of Reionization and claim a first direct detection of the cosmic 21cm signal within the next decade. Data volumes will be enormous and can thus potentially revolutionize our understanding of the early Universe and galaxy formation. However, numerical modelling of the Epoch of Reionization can be prohibitively expensive for Bayesian parameter inference and how to optimally extract information from incoming data is currently unclear. Emulation techniques for fast model evaluations have recently been proposed as a way to bypass costly simulations. We consider the use of artificial neural networks as a blind emulation technique. We study the impact of training duration and training set size on the quality of the network prediction and the resulting best fit values of a parameter search. A direct comparison is drawn between our emulation technique and an equivalent analysis using 21CMMC. We find good predictive capabilities of our network using training sets of as low as 100 model evaluations, which is within the capabilities of fully numerical radiative transfer codes.
Cosmic Microwave Background experiments from COBE to Planck, have launched cosmology into an era of precision science, where many cosmological parameters are now determined to the percent level. Next generation telescopes, focussing on the cosmological 21cm signal from neutral hydrogen, will probe enormous volumes in the low-redshift Universe, and have the potential to determine dark energy properties and test modifications of Einstein's gravity. We study the 21cm bispectrum due to gravitational collapse as well as the contribution by line of sight perturbations in the form of the lensing-ISW bispectrum at low-redshifts (z ∼ 0.35 − 3), targeted by upcoming neutral hydrogen intensity mapping experiments. We compute the expected bispectrum amplitudes and use a Fisher forecast model to compare power spectrum and bispectrum observations of intensity mapping surveys by CHIME, MeerKAT and SKA-mid. We find that combined power spectrum and bispectrum observations have the potential to decrease errors on the cosmological parameters by an order of magnitude compared to Planck. Finally, we compute the contribution of the lensing-ISW bispectrum, and find that, unlike for the cosmic microwave background analyses, it can safely be ignored for 21cm bispectrum observations.
Next generation radio experiments such as LOFAR, HERA and SKA are expected to probe the Epoch of Reionization and claim a first direct detection of the cosmic 21cm signal within the next decade. One of the major challenges for these experiments will be dealing with enormous incoming data volumes. Machine learning is key to increasing our data analysis efficiency. We consider the use of an artificial neural network to emulate 21cmFAST simulations and use it in a Bayesian parameter inference study. We then compare the network predictions to a direct evaluation of the EoR simulations and analyse the dependence of the results on the training set size. We find that the use of a training set of size 100 samples can recover the error contours of a full scale MCMC analysis which evaluates the model at each step.
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