B y mid-March 2020, most countries had implemented nationwide lockdown policies aimed at decelerating the spread of SARS-CoV-2. At that time, nobody knew how long these policies would have to remain in force and whether they would have to be extended, intensified or made more flexible. The present study aimed to illuminate how the general public in Germany reacted to the prospect of increasing the length, the intensity and/or the flexibility of distancing rules implied by different lockdown scenarios. Endorsement of and compliance with five specific lockdown scenarios were assessed in a large (N = 14,433) German sample. Results showed that lockdown length affected respondents' reactions much more strongly than intensity or flexibility. Additional analyses (i.e., mixture distribution modelling) showed that half of the respondents rejected any further extensions or intensifications, while 20% would endorse long-term strategies if necessary. We argue that policy-makers and political communicators should take the public's endorsement of and compliance with such scenarios into account, as should simulations predicting the effects of different lockdown scenarios.

Most countries have implemented nationwide lockdown policies aimed to decelerate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Epidemiologists have recently discussed scenarios according to which these policies would need to be extended and/or intensified. To illuminate how the general public might react to such scenarios, we assessed Germans’ endorsement of and compliance with five specific scenarios. Results show that, in general, length of lockdown plays a more important role than intensity. Although half of the respondents reject any further extensions or intensifications, 20% would endorse long-term strategies if necessary. Simulations predicting the effects of different lockdown scenarios should take the public’s endorsement of and compliance with these scenarios into account.

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Imposing and enforcing lockdown rules are effective means to decelerate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. That said, the effectiveness of these rules strongly depends on citizens’ compliance. Here, we investigate the extent to which lockdown compliance varies as a function of (a) time-variant factors (i.e., infection wave), (b) rule-related factors (i.e., length, intensity, and flexibility of lockdown), and/or (c) stable individual differences. Using latent-state trait modeling with panel data from 1,098 German individuals who reported on their willingness to comply with five lockdown scenarios at two time points (April and November, 2020), we show that a substantial amount of variance can be attributed to a latent trait. Using data from a third time point (January 2021; N = 834), we show that this latent trait is associated with honesty/humility and conscientiousness above and beyond social desirability. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.