Meteorological disasters are the result of the interaction of multiple factors and multiple systems. In order to improve the accuracy of prediction, it is necessary not only to consider the characteristics and cycles of each subsystem, but also to study the interaction of all systems. Based on the summer precipitation data and 130 circulation indexes of 34 national meteorological observation stations in Chongqing from 1961 to 2010, the prediction model of Chongqing summer precipitation was established based on the decision tree and the stochastic forest algorithm based on machine learning, and the prediction test of 2011–2018 was carried out independently by the model. Compared with the results of the single-factor prediction model, the trend consistency rate increased by 37.5% and 12.5% respectively. In addition, when using the random forest model to predict summer precipitation in Chongqing from 2014 to 2018, the 5-year average Ps, Cc and PC scores were 84.6, 0.27 and 67.1, respectively, which were significantly improved compared with 72.4, −0.12 and 52.9 of the current climate forecasting methods, and the forecast quality of the random forest was relatively stable. The multi-system collaborative impact model based on decision tree and random forest algorithm can achieve high accuracy and stability. Thus, this method can not only be an effective means for the diagnosis and prediction of climate causes, but also has a good theoretical and practical value for the prediction of extreme disasters.
The Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle (CCEC) is becoming the fourth growth pole in China after the Yangtze River Delta Economic Circle (YRDEC); Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao Economic Circle (GBAEC); Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei Economic Circle (BTHEC). The land use and landscape ecological management of the CCEC is critical to its social and economic development. Using ArcGIS modeling and Fragstats processing methods, we divided the CCEC into 5 km × 5 km ecological risk areas and constructed a landscape ecological risk index evaluation model to calculate the spatial and temporal dynamic changes in the urban expansion and landscape ecological risk over the last 20 years. The results show that the land use was mainly cultivated land, which exhibited a decreasing trend and was mainly converted to construction land and forest land. The change in the construction land exhibited a continuous expansion trend with the dual core in Chengdu-Chongqing. The average risk of 10,155 risk communities was about 0.16. The expansion of human activities increased the landscape ecological risk of the construction land, and the risk of the edge of the cultivated land was higher than the internal risk value. The ecological risk index values of 16 cities in the study area ranged from 0.02 to 0.28. The resistance of the landscape pattern to external disturbance was stronger than that in other regions of China. The landscape ecological risk is controllable overall. However, the higher level of economic development in Chengdu, Chongqing, and other mature cities poses a greater landscape ecological risk. The results of this research provide an important reference for promoting the optimization and construction of the land space in the CCEC, building ecological shelters, and preventing ecological risk in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.
The Three Gorges Project is the largest water conservancy project in the world. To cope with the ecological problems of the subsidence zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the Kaizhou water-level-regulating dam was built, forming a model of nested water conservancy projects. The Pengxi River Basin is affected not only by this project but also by human activities in the reservoir area and changes in the substratum and hydro-meteorology, which exert influences on the water connotation function and its ecological value through complex mechanisms. In addition, the response mechanism of the changes in the environment is unclear. Therefore, based on the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and a spatial interpolation method, in this study, two time nodes (2005 and 2018) before and after the operation of the nested water conservancy projects began were selected, and seven simulation scenarios with different water levels, precipitations, and temperatures were created to explore the evolution of the water conservation service function in the nested water conservancy project operation area under the complex changes in the environment. The results reveal that the operation of the water conservancy projects has had some influence on the water content, but the response of the water content function to the precipitation conditions has been more significant. In colder and rainier years, the water content was higher. In contrast, the lowest value occurred in a year with high temperatures and low rainfall. The highest and lowest values were quantitatively different. Therefore, the influences of the complex environmental factors on the regional water connotation service function deserve more attention. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for research on the ecological service function and the value of water conservation in the Three Gorges Reservoir subsidence zone and the nested operation area of the related water conservancy projects, as well as a data reference for the optimal allocation of regional water resources.
Along with China's economic development and social progress, water scarcity has become increasingly challenging. Optimized allocation of water resources, especially through water transfer project, is one of the important approaches to mitigate water shortages. In this study, authors built a model of water resources allocation simulation and the microcosmic configuration based on a complex water network in the east route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Jiangsu Province, east China. Selecting data from the typical years with assurance rates of P 95%, 75%, and 50%, the simulation of supply and demand of water resources under the present situation and the tapping scenario of planning project was carried out. The results showed that water supply capacity increased while water deficits decreased remarkably for the diversion projects. Under the assurance rates of P 95%, 75%, and 50%, the rate of water shortage decreased by 10.3%, 8.0%, and 5.2%, respectively. Under the planning work situation, the amount of water increased by 2,800 million m 3 even during the period of extreme drought. Based on the results, it also provided an effective plan for the hydraulic engineering to optimize the allocation and management of water resources. It is helpful for policy makers to mitigate water shortage in Jiangsu Province and other areas with water transfer projects in China and other countries.
Abstract. Carbon sink in karstic areas is very important at a global scale. Consequently, accurate determination of the carbon sink of karst ecosystems has become a core issue in research. We used flow and carbon ion concentration data from three stations with different environmental background conditions in the Houzhai Basin, southwestern China, to analyse the differences in carbon uptake between stations and to determine their impact factors. The results show that carbon sink discharge was mainly controlled by the flow at each site. Preliminary analysis indicated that the rapid increase in flow only had a partial dilution effect on the ion concentrations due to the high speed and stability of chemical carbonate weathering. The Land-Use and Cover-Change (LUCC) type had important effects on the bicarbonate ion concentrations; under stable run-off conditions, the influence of flow variation on the ion concentration was lower than the effects of chemical carbonate weathering on bicarbonate ion concentrations under different environmental conditions (a comparison of Laoheitan and Liugu stations showed a difference of 150 %). However, if run-off increased significantly, the impact of run-off variation on bicarbonate ions was greater than the effects of chemical carbonate weathering caused under different environmental conditions. This work provides a reference for the calculation of the karst geological carbon sink.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.